Nah I was out Friends then Gym and Swim Friday, nice slow enough run up to jump on.
Likely won't trade, just can't risk my little account till it calms down which could take a while.
Demo accounting, so if I get good results then maybe LOL
how far could the market go down?
- Thread starter trend2009
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Nah I was out Friends then Gym and Swim Friday, nice slow enough run up to jump on.
Likely won't trade, just can't risk my little account till it calms down which could take a while.
Demo accounting, so if I get good results then maybe LOL
Good for you, it was a crazy nightmare run. NQ was up and down 400 points in range for the day. The last 15 minutes was a close to 300 point rise into EOD. It was, basically, this, but like 3 times during the full trading calendar day, hehe...
I consider peak corporate earning one of the more reliable harbingers of a recession. Not sure if we have the final 2019 fourth quarter tally yet but 133 should be pretty close. This suggests we may have put in a peak (136). This is more reliable than inverted yield. While an inverted yield curve usually precedes a recession we have many examples of inverted yield not being followed any time soon by a recession. However, off hand, I can't think of any recession that wasn't preceded by a well defined corporate earnings peak.
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But what draw down can we expect in severe recession ( which probably is guaranteed now) and with buyback disappearance?
I would say 40-50%
but insane money printing by central banks sure can offset a lot of it. So it might be the Friday was the lowest of that coming recession
Or if not I bet Fed will print whatever needed to prevent 20% and bear market
We've had lots of mild recessions and a few fairly severe ones, and one whopper since the great depression. I guess what I'm saying, and none to clearly, is that as long as earnings are still rising or not declining significantly a recession is probably a ways off. Probably this 1st quarter of 2020 is going to tell us much. We will have to wait for April earnings season. I know it doesn't look good, but as Yogi said, "predictions are hard, especially about the future." The Corona virus scare may have simply been the catalyst for a much needed correction. Let's see how it affects earnings. I'm reluctant to buy into media hysterics. But then I don't have to sell advertisements to make a living.
you already had warning from Apple and Microsoft.
All travel, hospitality etc. will collapse
Boeing has a good chance to bankrupt and likely will be bailed out but at what price to shareholders
If there are school closures there will be direct huge hit to consumers
Wall street has creative ways to count earnings but it's not the question if earnings decline or not
at least the next 2 quarters earnings will be negative
not negative earnings growth but negative earnings
Through all of this tumult, I have maintained that Boeing is not going anywhere. They are "too important to fail".
In fact, Boeing was cushioned from this market fall because they were already hammered by the MAX thing. So they had a head-start on the correction, heh.
BA ain't going the way of the dodo.
Similar story for much of the energy sector stocks. Charts on those look like what you'd expect 12-18 months into a bear market.