how far could the market go down?

KCalhoun said:
Likely regardless of fed actions giving dead cat bounce mon tue mkts still likely will sell into Friday...

Biden win over bsbernie is likely to lift mkts Monday .... battle bulls from Biden/fed vs bear virus fear next week... may get up to mean reversion bounce but unlikely, fear outweighs fomo greed....

Breaking news

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyse-could-close-trading-floor-in-coronavirus-contingency

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/ber...cratic-primary-on-super-tuesday-nbc-poll.html
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If NYSE does close, not likely, but possible; I plan or getting more long. [FOX news link]QQQ is above 200dma. { IF I was depending on gov health care I may have more of a cash position, but i'm not. } AS far as a pandemic, not likely, CNBC said bird flu would be pandemic+ never happened
Senator Biden [his words,LOL] did so bad early I' surprised he won.Blair Hull actually got beat in a Senate race against Obama, strange. But like Blair hull said,if they shut down the exchange I want to be long…………………………..
 
trdes said:
Because it doesn't matter how much NQ or the market goes down, it only matters where you buy. I am not trying to make an obvious statement, but not sure how else to quickly or simply explain it.

I traded Sunday night long and it was extremely difficult to turn a profit, I noticed this. I barely broke even after commission and fees, but the price action was not normal at all compared to what we've been seeing. Plus information / TA I use was starting to weaken.

I didn't know we would drop 1000+ NQ points, but it did let me know three things I need to do:

#1 I need to trade lighter to allow myself more room for the the volatility

#2 I need to move to a larger time frame because there will still be long setups within the down move, but since larger charts are weakening I need to use larger charts to take a long setup. IE: If larger charts are bullish, I will go to a lower time frame to take a long, because I have increased probabilities of it working out. If large charts are weak, there's higher probability the long I take on smaller TF will produce very little or even fail completely

#3 I need to be patient on entry, understand there will be a lot more retest / break of lows than in previous weeks and I should only be taking A+ setups for longs, not just any long signal I see.


Not sure if that answers your question?
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Why did you only trade from the long side last week? Makes no sense.
 
RRY16 said:
Why did you only trade from the long side last week? Makes no sense.
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I did not trade only long, I took some shorts as well. I did trade majority long. I also explained that I wish I had been more willing to take shorts and that it was a mental block on my part that I am working on correcting.

I don't fully agree with not making sense. The markets have been incredibly bullish and forgiving to the long side. I haven't had many short setups I've liked or that paid me very well to be really shorting this market until just last week. I am not a robot so I decided to still go long. Would I of made more money short? Yes. But I also followed my plan and still made money. so the "no sense" part again I can't fully agree with that.

In other words it's easy to look back now and tell me how I should of traded. I was in the trenches doing it and my goal is to make money, which I accomplished.


EDIT: @KCalhoun If you have the time I would appreciate a response from you as well, since you liked his post.


You guys realize you're both in a round about way explaining to me that going long makes no sense, when the markets have been closed for almost 48 hours now after the week ends?

I am genuinely not understanding the logic. Sure, I could see the markets were weak, but I did not know the markets would drop this much. I still followed my plan and traded what I know. Is the point of trading not to make money?

I only bring this up because I see this with a lot of traders. Everyone waits for a move to be done, than they discuss it afterwards and tell everyone what make's sense and what doesn't. If you guys shorted and cleaned house, that's great. But maybe you guys could explain that or at least mention that before telling me what I did makes no sense.

What part makes no sense, me following my plan? or making money? lol
 
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KCalhoun said:
If my overnight small TVIX SQQQ UVXY VXX gaps down I'll scale out, if they gap up & stay above fri high into the close I'll buy more, fwiw

I always plan for the worst w tight stops
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I considered a partial profit on TZA;
but TZ finished below open price + was up over 43% in one week !!!!!.Its still pretty weak, I may daytrade SQQQ or related if they gap + grind down, I thinking most go up by MON close?? Those huge volume spikes could be an end or entry signal LOL...………………………………………………………………………...BY the way, Paul Tudor Jones uses odd lots on his entries, or did years ago.ITs a game changer for QQQ if it keeps above 200dma-so far so good
 
trdes said:
Because it doesn't matter how much NQ or the market goes down, it only matters where you buy. I am not trying to make an obvious statement, but not sure how else to quickly or simply explain it.

I traded Sunday night long and it was extremely difficult to turn a profit, I noticed this. I barely broke even after commission and fees, but the price action was not normal at all compared to what we've been seeing. Plus information / TA I use was starting to weaken.

I didn't know we would drop 1000+ NQ points, but it did let me know three things I need to do:

#1 I need to trade lighter to allow myself more room for the the volatility

#2 I need to move to a larger time frame because there will still be long setups within the down move, but since larger charts are weakening I need to use larger charts to take a long setup. IE: If larger charts are bullish, I will go to a lower time frame to take a long, because I have increased probabilities of it working out. If large charts are weak, there's higher probability the long I take on smaller TF will produce very little or even fail completely

#3 I need to be patient on entry, understand there will be a lot more retest / break of lows than in previous weeks and I should only be taking A+ setups for longs, not just any long signal I see.


Not sure if that answers your question?
More...


thanks. I also made some money going long last week.
 
Re Tweaked method to handle the power and speed, might have to jump back in tomorrow, so either 3K ran upto 100K over the week with lot sizes increasing aggressively or looking for a job.

Or I might wuss it and wait for calmer times, which might take a while.
 
I used to trade TZA FAZ QID SDS SPXS bear etfs too but now my 2 favorites are SQQQ UVXY... hoping creditsuisse will split tvix soon....

Trds, sounds like you put thought into your approach... I have found it very useful to use 2day highs, lows to scale in and out, and volume patterns
 
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11mins before open and we can see the gap, black monday possible, don't walk under building where traders work is my advice, they might be using the windows.
 
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