how do you make sense of seasonal market trends?

deaddog said:
Losses are part of the learning curve. I don't know why you are taking losses but maybe you are fighting the trend.
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I wouldnt say im fighting the trend
More like not taking any action because i dont know what is happening so i end up staying too long in a losing trade because i dont understand whats going on ans whether its a downtrend or trend reversal or small dip that will continue to go back up or general market selloff

Dpw held support at 2.20 was on its way up he pamped it pretty good and overall had positive expectations from chstroom pumpers and noobs on chatrooms as well. Had decent earnings and bunch of good news over and over and then it collapsed and i didnt know whether to hold and wait for rebound after a short dip or it will continue a downtrend.
I did as much processing as i could on this one but it failed
 
Have you considered looking at how your "strategies" would perform on charts from dates before current day, in order to refine your "strategy" and accept it only if based on Losses Less than Wins?

It's one method of doing a reality check on your "ideas" in a fairly quick manner after which you might consider paper-trading / sim-trading before you put your hard earned frogs on the block. Each step in this series gets harsher on your system's ability to spin off profits, so that sim trading might look good but when the rubber hits the road, YMMV. Everybody Wants Your Frogs! LOL. Not just you, bud.

Your Choice. It's a free country.

 
deaddog said:
Losses are part of the learning curve. I don't know why you are taking losses but maybe you are fighting the trend.
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This is exactly what hes doing as he has all but hinted it. He feels a certain outcome is supposed to happen because it did it on another similar setup and he trades that outcome as a given, rather than a probability. A head and shoulders has to break to the downside because that's how the pattern works. An ascending triangle has to go up because that's how the pattern works. Hes also putting more emphasis on the setup than the trend. I could be wrong but that's how I'm reading his posts.
 
mute9003 said:
Thats what im trying to understand.
like the dpw(nile) chart
Daily chart shows 2 perfectly matching triangles. Back to back.
yet the second triangle didnt have a breakout even though they are nearly identical in every way.
I see the pattern but cant explain why..
All i see is just a painfull slow downtrend extending past where it would break out..
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The title of your thread is about "seasonal trends" but you're now talking about "2 perfectly matching triangles" on the daily chart.

That's not a seasonal trend and maybe that's the reason why you do not understand it.

wrbtrader
 
wrbtrader said:
The title of your thread is about "seasonal trends" but you're now talking about "2 perfectly matching triangles" on the daily chart.

That's not a seasonal trend and maybe that's the reason why you do not understand it.

wrbtrader
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https://ibb.co/Yhqn01R

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deaddog said:
The trend is down and you are going long!! That's fighting the trend.
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When i entered the trend on that one it was going up then reversed as soon as i got in and i didnt know whether it was just a small dip or actual downtrend
 
mute9003 said:
When i entered the trend on that one it was going up then reversed as soon as i got in and i didnt know whether it was just a small dip or actual downtrend
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You never know. You decide before you get in the trade how much you are willing to lose then set a stop.
Are we discussing NILE? Where did you get in? Where did you exit?
 
mute9003 said:
When i entered the trend on that one it was going up then reversed as soon as i got in and i didnt know whether it was just a small dip or actual downtrend
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Wow. That's hard to believe. That hardly ever happens. Just a fluke maybe. If it happens a lot, then maybe, just maybe your system is somewhat less than foolproof. Just sayin.
Do you have a "Method" by which you Buy or Sell to Enter Trades?
Can you generally give us an idea of your decision making process, not the details just the bare outline...
BTW, Don't worry that somebody will steal it if you post it. Not gonna happen.
 
Im not a pro
My method is obviously not working.
I buy when i conclude that the price has bottomed out and the trend is on its way up. Sometimes it works
Usually i end up riding the dip for long ass time until a good uptrend starts and i make money.
 
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