how do you make sense of seasonal market trends?

Thats what im trying to understand.
like the dpw(nile) chart
Daily chart shows 2 perfectly matching triangles. Back to back.
yet the second triangle didnt have a breakout even though they are nearly identical in every way.
I see the pattern but cant explain why..
All i see is just a painfull slow downtrend extending past where it would break out..
 
mute9003 said:
im just not understanding the claims that all you have to do is be able to read charts
do they not pay attention to anything else then?
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Nope, because even if it's good news the market could still sell off. The market may have already priced that information in and after the news drops it sells off as other traders pile in thinking it's about to go higher. As these algos sell off and the bulls see theyve fucked themselves then they begin to sell out at a loss and the market drops.

If you learn to read charts you can see the hedge funds selling out and ride that train.
 
mute9003 said:
Thats what im trying to understand.
like the dpw(nile) chart
Daily chart shows 2 perfectly matching triangles. Back to back.
yet the second triangle didnt have a breakout even though they are nearly identical in every way.
I see the pattern but cant explain why..
All i see is just a painfull slow downtrend extending past where it would break out..
More...
Because you're seeing a pattern as being a given for a certain outcome rather than a probability. There could be a setup that, statistically speaking, has an 80% probability of success and then fails 10 out of the next 10 times. What you need to understand is that as long as you are incorporating risk management into your system then this setup will ultimately be profitable over the long term.
 
deaddog said:
What does that tell you?
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It literally tells me nothing since i dont understand whats causing it.

It extended past where it could possibly break out again. If it broke out at that point i would assume it did because everyone else saw same pattern and was ready to pamp it

Since it skated right past it and continued on the road of disappointment lower and lower i have no idea why.
Im trying to understand the mechanics and causes behind these slow death trends
How can i tell if its consolidation or slow painfull death or falling knife or wedge etc.
Because this slow decline sometimes looks like consolidation
Why is the decline slow after a massive supernova breakout and not fast from people exiting a failed trade as fast as they can?

are there rules for repeating patterns? Do they break after second repeating pattern on average or 3rd or 4th? i see many of them break after second repeating pattern many times but not always like the case of nile(dpw) but why after second again why not after 3 or 4 times of repeating pattern

I really just need specific details about chart movements to fill in the gaps on my knowledge because i have chunks of information that i cant connect together for them to make sense.
 
Ive been intensively reading and absorbing as much as i can starting this year. But it seems to be counterproductive as my losses keep getting larger.
And im getting more lost in the information.
But again i feel like its because i have chunks of information with missing pieces of the puzzle that i need to connect them together
Im assuming that these losses are part of learning after my beginer luck trial period has ended. So im accepting them as part of the process of moving forward
 
mute9003 said:
It literally tells me nothing since i dont understand whats causing it.
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More seller than buyers. Those who want out for whatever reason have to lower their price to find a buyer. Who knows why they want out, you can't possibly know.
 
mute9003 said:
Ive been intensively reading and absorbing as much as i can starting this year. But it seems to be counterproductive as my losses keep getting larger.
And im getting more lost in the information.
But again i feel like its because i have chunks of information with missing pieces of the puzzle that i need to connect them together
Im assuming that these losses are part of learning after my beginer luck trial period has ended. So im accepting them as part of the process of moving forward
More...
Losses are part of the learning curve. I don't know why you are taking losses but maybe you are fighting the trend.
 
mute9003 said:
It literally tells me nothing since i dont understand whats causing it.

It extended past where it could possibly break out again. If it broke out at that point i would assume it did because everyone else saw same pattern and was ready to pamp it

Since it skated right past it and continued on the road of disappointment lower and lower i have no idea why.
Im trying to understand the mechanics and causes behind these slow death trends
How can i tell if its consolidation or slow painfull death or falling knife or wedge etc.
Because this slow decline sometimes looks like consolidation
Why is the decline slow after a massive supernova breakout and not fast from people exiting a failed trade as fast as they can?

are there rules for repeating patterns? Do they break after second repeating pattern on average or 3rd or 4th? i see many of them break after second repeating pattern many times but not always like the case of nile(dpw) but why after second again why not after 3 or 4 times of repeating pattern

I really just need specific details about chart movements to fill in the gaps on my knowledge because i have chunks of information that i cant connect together for them to make sense.
More...

Once again, you're trying to attach certainties to probabilities. There is no set outcome to a breakout or a reversal. You're putting too much energy into irrelevant data. No, you don't need to know WHY it did a move this time and not another time. It did it because the current fundamentals to that point in time, which are completely different than ANY other point of time, pushed it to react that way.

You can't use how it reacted this time to another time. You can only say "THIS SPECIFIC SETUP has X% probability of yielding 1:X risk/ reward, and because of this I will buy this setup everytime because it will be profitable over the longrun.

You want to understand the whys, but not only are they irrelevant, they are also outside of your data. Just because there is 1 piece of news you think might be pushing the price one way, or should be pushing it one way, there are 20 unseen pieces of news that either correlate or dont with that same news pushing it whatever way it wants. Quit focusing on the WHY or you will likely never be profitable.
 
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