How crazy am I to believe that this system can work live?

SimpleMeLike said:
Hello trader221,

Back test from 1/1/2006 to 10/27/2023, and EVERY question in your life will be answered when you see the results.
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%%
Good points.
IT could work, not that this is a typical OCT, its not for NQ or ES. It could work anyway.
I doubt if longer term, largest lose trade will be $2k+ largest win trade will be $2k, long term.
Possible but not likely.
But using a good trend filter could improve it.
I would not want an average win of $80+ average loss of $120. But that's just me;
nice green equity OCT graph:caution:
 
Drawdown Addict said:
How would you account for slippage in a backtest?
I just do the old-fashioned way of assuming that I will get filled a few ticks away.
Do you happen to know any better trick?
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to be diligent historical data would be best. If winging the value just depends on the instrument.

This is a big reason why I only trade a single liquid instrument during its most liquid hours only...helps bridge the gap between fantasy and reality.

lol, i posted this in my recent thread about backtesting. it is so true it hurts.

upload_2023-10-27_12-11-4.png
 
trader221 said:
Good morning.
This is a scalping trading algorithm based on footprint signals for entries and exits.
I've been testing it in demo for a month.
I also did backtests and the profit factor are 2 times more than the results with the live test
I tested it with an apex trader funding account but it failed because of the DD trailing (even though it was positive).
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At least backtest it from 2020 till now. I think it gives pretty wide range of market conditions in that timeline.

If it's still profitable, run with it live.

Anyway why are you even doing funding account crap? You short on funds?
 
trader221 said:
Good morning.
This is a scalping trading algorithm based on footprint signals for entries and exits.
I've been testing it in demo for a month.
I also did backtests and the profit factor are 2 times more than the results with the live test
I tested it with an apex trader funding account but it failed because of the DD trailing (even though it was positive).
More...
On what time frame is this tested on?

Tick-by-tick is the only way I would trust any backward or forward results.
 
Didn't read other posts so probably others said the same, but you need to backtest for like 10 years to have any understanding of expected profit and risk.

There's a misunderstanding around sample size when it comes to short time frames. The diffferent personality of markets has to be tested, as much for scalping as anything else. Don't let the large amount of trades lead you to a false sense of security around profitability and risk.
 
Actuarial_Fun said:
Didn't read other posts so probably others said the same, but you need to backtest for like 10 years to have any understanding of expected profit and risk.

There's a misunderstanding around sample size when it comes to short time frames. The different personality of markets has to be tested, as much for scalping as anything else. Don't let the large amount of trades lead you to a false sense of security around profitability and risk.
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Good read.
Even more so, when many may not even call a number of trades in OCT ''a large number '' of trades. Even though that could be, for one OCT.
Some things need to be repeated .
It could work.
[Another personal point, I like to assume max slippage + seldom disappointed there LOL:D:D] But the way I trade, slippage+ exchange fees aren't my main concern @ all .
 
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- Would recent data be exponentially more import?
- How likely is it that systems are being modified unfavorably to suit conditions not relevant to today?
- What is the expected life of an automated system before it requires tweaking?

Obviously performance needs to be constantly monitored to spot weaknesses...and the system needs a real chance to prove itself without constant tweaking but It makes sense to me at least that recent data should be valued higher than data from 2020.
 
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