How crazy am I to believe that this system can work live?

[trader221]

Good morning.
This is a scalping trading algorithm based on footprint signals for entries and exits.
I've been testing it in demo for a month.
I also did backtests and the profit factor are 2 times more than the results with the live test
I tested it with an apex trader funding account but it failed because of the DD trailing (even though it was positive).

 

[Drawdown Addict]

It looks like you didn't account for execution slippage and commissions.

117 trades per day on average will eat a bit of your confidence in this system when you account for commissions.

 

[trader221]

It looks like you didn't account for execution slippage and commissions.

117 trades per day on average will eat a bit of your confidence in this system when you account for commissions.

Commissions and slippages are included. Look closely +10,000 dollars in commissions

 

[Drawdown Addict]

Commissions and slippages are included. Look closely +10,000 dollars in commissions

yes, I can see it now. Maybe it will work for real then.

 

[maxinger]

Go do live trading to really test it.

Sad to tell you you might have to top up your trading account.

 

[tsfx]

what instrument(s) are you trading?

having sorting ratio 1 means the only reason you failed Apex trailing drawdown is because you were using too much leverage. You can easily back off sizes like 10 times (if i'm reading your statement correct)

 

[smallfil]

Slippage is real and will affect your results in a big way. I backtested a trading system once, which looked very promising, positive expectation and over 100% returns over 188 trades. Went live to test it and placed 7 trades. Only 1 was a winner, the rest losers and slippage accounted for a good number of the losing trades. Market makers will nickle and dime you given the chance. Take that into consideration when trading.

 

[TrAndy2022]

Good morning.
This is a scalping trading algorithm based on footprint signals for entries and exits.
I've been testing it in demo for a month.
I also did backtests and the profit factor are 2 times more than the results with the live test
I tested it with an apex trader funding account but it failed because of the DD trailing (even though it was positive).

How did you backtest this footprint strategy ?

 

[danielc1]

You have an outlier in your trade results that would worry me:
Average $ winning +- $80
Average $ Losing +- $125
And then
Largest winning trade: +- $ 2000
Largest losing trade : +- 2000

How come?

 

[TrAndy2022]

Good morning.
This is a scalping trading algorithm based on footprint signals for entries and exits.
I've been testing it in demo for a month.
I also did backtests and the profit factor are 2 times more than the results with the live test
I tested it with an apex trader funding account but it failed because of the DD trailing (even though it was positive).

The profit factor is by far too bad. It looks more than noise through optimized backtests just like curve fitting only. I assume this is NQ Futures so you need to add slippage than your strategy can turn into negative. It is too sensitive I guess. Better your filter more your trades until you have more average trade and better profit factor > 3 or 4 at least.