How can you even claim that technicals matter?

............ If I guess correctly in roulette, I'm not gonna brag about it or act like a genius.
Maybe ... but if over many many years, and a lot of hard work, you identify a repeating pattern of behavior that allows you take profits with some consistency, I bet you'd be very proud of that accomplishment. Rightfully so. And when some random person on social media demands that you teach them to do that in 5 easy steps ...... would you be glad to invest a lot of your time, away from your other interests, to turn that hard earned accomplishment over to them ? ... for free ? ... with no benefit to you ?
 
Doesn't mean you do it every year. Doesn't mean it was "easy". I've trade a long time and have made >50% in a year only 4 times. (And I'm smarter than the average duck. Don't believe it, just ask me.) :)

do you trade static ? Meaning that you buy sell levels based on a method you developed or do you scale in position ? Do you have draw downs ? No overnights positions ? Futures ?
OR

do you do everything in context of what you think you see ,,
 
"How can you even claim that technicals matter?"

Volume moves the price, retail size does not, they are bait to make a little more.
You can either trade with volume or try against it by timing.

Any one trade has a 50/50 % chance of success, where it changes is RISK management, all one can control more than 50% is management of the trade and your ability to memorize quickly patterns you either read about and developed yourself alters bottom line.

For some luck is pure luck is no better than betting on red or black and for others we make our own luck but knowing TREND, when it should start and end, get long early to make the most on runners, seeing when it should end so avoiding last signals that often either loses or breakevens, and trading is not you against the market, it is you against you, sticking to the rules you used to backtest to make sure your methods have that profitability or "edge".

If you looking for more of scalping profits, your winning percentages should be very high to cover losses and fees, if you going for larger profits percentages can be lower so long as reward to risk much greater. As your years of trading increase, like any other profession, profitable percentages increase and drawdowns should decrease.
 
do you trade static ? Meaning that you buy sell levels based on a method you developed or do you scale in position ? Do you have draw downs ? No overnights positions ? Futures ?
OR

do you do everything in context of what you think you see ,,

I don't know what you mean by "trade static".

I don't trade "pre-determined levels", if that's what you mean. I trade "chart indicated", as should everyone.

Of course I have draw downs... just try to keep them minimized.

Overnight? Depends upon the margin I have for futures. Overnight is itself an additional risk. Anything can happen during Asian/European markets. In the ES, you can eliminate that by just going flat. If you've also got ETFs or individual equities, overnight increases your short-term risk.

I trade ES futures and ETFs, mostly
 
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I don't know what you mean by "trade static".

I don't trade "pre-determined levels", if that's what you mean. I trade "chart indicated", as should everyone.

Of course I have draw downs... just try to keep them minimized.

Overnight? Depends upon the margin I have for futures. Overnight is itself an additional risk. Anything can happen during Asian/European markets. In the ES, you can eliminate that by just going flat. If you've also got ETFs or individual equities, overnight increases your short-term risk.

I trade ES futures and ETFs, mostly

No information on this site...good chatter spot couple good articles
 
In roulette the house has a 5.26% edge. If you guess right, you shouldn't brag, but you ought to be pretty darn happy.

As far as luck and the winning trade, I would say yes, for most traders there is likely a fair amount of luck when they do stumble into a winning trade.

But for a small percentage of retail traders they can use TA, PA, tape reading or whatever version of judging the market that you wish and for those traders they will have an edge over the game that can be significantly greater than the house edge in a game like roulette.

I think you are right about much of what you say, but you are also not accurate in important respects. There are mathematical concepts that can help you sort this out, as well logic (both propositional and predicate). You don't need to be a quant, by any means. But you absolutley must understand the concept of probability and accept the premise that human beings are herd animals.

By the way, the ES is 3251 right now which would have been a buy trigger price yesterday. If price trades below it without quickly reversing higher, then odds increase that price continues down to the low 40's, and even back to the low 30's.
:fistbump:
 
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