Even in a winning trade, isn't there a high probability it was luck?
If I guess correctly in roulette, I'm not gonna brag about it or act like a genius.
How can you even claim that technicals matter?
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
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Even in a winning trade, isn't there a high probability it was luck?
If I guess correctly in roulette, I'm not gonna brag about it or act like a genius.
I think a lot of these guys can't get past the concept that a lot of trades don't work. This is not about being right, nobody knows for sure what happens next, it's about making profit. I will never like taking losses but taking them are an important part of the process.
I think most of y'all should start by defining terms. This whole thread is folks talking past one another for lack of a common language.
For example, what is Technical Analysis, and what is Price Action Analysis? Are they different? If so, how are they different? How are they similar?
And what is it you expect to be able to accomplish? If it is prediction, I suggest crystal balls and diving rods. If it is determining relative probabilities of price direction then you might be on the right track.
Yes, probabilities.
Even a proven 55% probability can lead to a lot of profit if enough capital and leverage is put into it.
That's why I was so disappointed with my back testing thing I did.
In roulette the house has a 5.26% edge. If you guess right, you shouldn't brag, but you ought to be pretty darn happy.
As far as luck and the winning trade, I would say yes, for most traders there is likely a fair amount of luck when they do stumble into a winning trade.
But for a small percentage of retail traders they can use TA, PA, tape reading or whatever version of judging the market that you wish and for those traders they will have an edge over the game that can be significantly greater than the house edge in a game like roulette.
I think you are right about much of what you say, but you are also not accurate in important respects. There are mathematical concepts that can help you sort this out, as well logic (both propositional and predicate). You don't need to be a quant, by any means. But you absolutley must understand the concept of probability and accept the premise that human beings are herd animals.
By the way, the ES is 3251 right now which would have been a buy trigger price yesterday. If price trades below it without quickly reversing higher, then odds increase that price continues down to the low 40's, and even back to the low 30's.
Sufficient capital is necessary. "Enough leverage" is a dangerous thought.
Use the brokers leverage.
This is the quote you should be responding to rather than the leverage.