Quote from praetorian2:
Guys- I've been holding about a score and change of smh common shorts for a few months now. Also bought a few hundred of the 38 QQQ long dated puts.
Last week, I bought a few hundred long dated SMH 40 puts and really pressed it on friday. Today I doubled up that position and added mostly in the Apr 40 area and some March 40 for deltas. I added it all on the open.
Also added some NVLS and INTC common on the short side and spruced up a few other shorts. Also added a smidge more silver, but i'm so overloaded from last summer that I really can't hold more (even though I really want to!!!)
Call it a gut feel, but the dollar has topped out on this bounce. Gold/silver have bottomed. Semis have topped and will drop 30% in the next 6 weeks from all the hot money and the sp will drop 10% during the next 2 months.
I have no real rationalle on this, but 40 on the SMH and 36 on QQQ were key levels I was watching. Techs led this market up. For 3 months, they've been unable to hunt, even while the broader market made new highs. Now semis are breaking, I think that they'll lead things right back down.
Comments?
Good luck.