OK. communication in 50 years going holographic, maybe. but what about restaurants, glamor, flashy cars to impress people .. this is the way our mtv future is headed.. look 20 years ago at cars.. people were very utilitarian about them .. now look at cars these days.. ask young people (15-21) about clunky or practical (minivans, for example, instead of SUVs) automobiles, and they make a face at you. a car has become an extension of their image. what am i getting at? that in 50 years, the youth today will be too concerned about their image and the need to show it off that a peaceful secluded lake in OK (which I, myself, think is dreamy, for the record) is boring and dull. this is just one example. i'm not trying to really argue, but bring up a discussion. dont think of my posts as a typical ET'r .. I am harmless...
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Housing Rolling Along 2
- Thread starter Covertibility
- Start date
Quote from dac8555:
any thoughts on what will happen with real estate stocks with all the wconomic data coming out tis week?
Hard to know exactly what sentiment or data is due to be released and how it will move these stocks.
But my take on the current market strength of these stocks is the following. Generally, since mid Oct, the market has been in an uptrend. The Q's are up 6.4% since 10-14 close. I have been long the Q's (via Profunds vehicle) and a basket of beta stocks like SSTI (up 10.30%), and CYMI (up 12.68%) since this date. Usually the market uptrend tends to "lift all ships", but the sector underperformance of the "homies" is striking in this same time frame! Look here...
TOL -10.22%
WLS -2.02%
DHOM -9.71%
DHI +2.93%
And the list goes on. And this is in a strong uptrend! To me the indicators (several) show this rally might be very long in the tooth and starting to roll over. This could mean the "homies" could start a strong down trend along with the rest of the market. They should be sold on any strength. Under the best possible conditions the last few weeks they look horrible!
And even if any news is positive, often in a downtrend good news is ignored and the trend continues (just as in a strong uptrend bad news is often ignored).
IMO...OWP
A housing Straddle might be a decent play given this could be a short-term pivot point for those stocks. If the news is bad, it will confirm the speculators' sentiment and they will drop; if it's good news, they are trading at low earnings multiples and could shoot up.
Disclaimer: Real Estate bear here...but who knows what they will "give" us for short term information on the market.
Disclaimer: Real Estate bear here...but who knows what they will "give" us for short term information on the market.
Hey, according to this web site, many housing markets are unbelievably overvalued. Could Stockton, Ca really be 68% overvalued? Could Naples, Fl really be 79% overvalued?????
http://www.nationalcity.com/content/corporate/EconomicInsight/documents/Final101305v2.pdf
http://www.nationalcity.com/content/corporate/EconomicInsight/documents/Final101305v2.pdf
I have been short DHI (Dh horton...a very large homebuilder) for a few weeks. they had earnings out today and they were spectacular...like 61% revenue 38% profit...whatever...really really good. and the stock has varied between 1.5% down to about 1.3% up. now a bit up. I feel better about the short, if it drops 10% on mildly bad news from a competitor, but is up only about 1% on realy really good news...i will be able to sleep tonght.
thanks for your input.
thanks for your input.
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The National Association of Home Builders' index for
sales of new, single-family homes fell to 60 in November from a revised 68 in
October, according to data released Wednesday.
When the Housing Market Index is over 50, it means the number of builders
who see "good" sales outnumber those who see "poor" sales.
The October index was originally reported at 67.
"It's important to keep today's report in perspective," said NAHB President
Dave Wilson, a custom-home builder from Ketchum, Idaho.
"Many builders still have substantial backlogs of unfilled orders and will
remain quite busy in coming months. But we're well aware that some slowing of
demand is inevitable following the record-breaking sales activity that has
prevailed for some time," Wilson said.
The overall index in November was down from a year ago when it was 70.
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said the sharp decline in the November
index probably overstates the actual degree of deterioration in the
single-family market.
"It's most likely that we're engaged in an orderly cooling process that will
lead to somewhat lower home sales and production in the future," Seiders said.
"We're looking for a 5% or 6% decline in home sales next year, compared to
2005," he said.
Seiders cited a deterioration in consumer attitudes in recent months,
spurred by recent hurricanes and higher energy prices, as a significant factor
behind the drop in the November index.
"In addition, affordability problems have arisen as house price gains have
accumulated in many parts of the country," he said.
Within the NAHB's Housing Market Index, the component for present sales of
single-family homes fell to 66 in November from 74 in October.
Expectations for sales in the next six months also fell, sliding to 64 in
November from 73 in October, the NAHB said. The traffic of prospective buyers
fell to 46 in November from 51 in October.
The numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations.
The index was based on a survey of 350 home builders, who answer questions
about sales prospects now and in the near term.
-By Deborah Lagomarsino, Dow Jones Newswires;202-862-9255;
deborah.lagomarsino@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-16-05 1322ET
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
sales of new, single-family homes fell to 60 in November from a revised 68 in
October, according to data released Wednesday.
When the Housing Market Index is over 50, it means the number of builders
who see "good" sales outnumber those who see "poor" sales.
The October index was originally reported at 67.
"It's important to keep today's report in perspective," said NAHB President
Dave Wilson, a custom-home builder from Ketchum, Idaho.
"Many builders still have substantial backlogs of unfilled orders and will
remain quite busy in coming months. But we're well aware that some slowing of
demand is inevitable following the record-breaking sales activity that has
prevailed for some time," Wilson said.
The overall index in November was down from a year ago when it was 70.
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said the sharp decline in the November
index probably overstates the actual degree of deterioration in the
single-family market.
"It's most likely that we're engaged in an orderly cooling process that will
lead to somewhat lower home sales and production in the future," Seiders said.
"We're looking for a 5% or 6% decline in home sales next year, compared to
2005," he said.
Seiders cited a deterioration in consumer attitudes in recent months,
spurred by recent hurricanes and higher energy prices, as a significant factor
behind the drop in the November index.
"In addition, affordability problems have arisen as house price gains have
accumulated in many parts of the country," he said.
Within the NAHB's Housing Market Index, the component for present sales of
single-family homes fell to 66 in November from 74 in October.
Expectations for sales in the next six months also fell, sliding to 64 in
November from 73 in October, the NAHB said. The traffic of prospective buyers
fell to 46 in November from 51 in October.
The numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations.
The index was based on a survey of 350 home builders, who answer questions
about sales prospects now and in the near term.
-By Deborah Lagomarsino, Dow Jones Newswires;202-862-9255;
deborah.lagomarsino@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-16-05 1322ET
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Quote from dac8555:
I have been short DHI (Dh horton...a very large homebuilder) for a few weeks. they had earnings out today and they were spectacular...like 61% revenue 38% profit...whatever...really really good. and the stock has varied between 1.5% down to about 1.3% up. now a bit up. I feel better about the short, if it drops 10% on mildly bad news from a competitor, but is up only about 1% on realy really good news...i will be able to sleep tonght.
thanks for your input.
Looks like these guys are about to do what they did during the 90's, meander sideways for awhile. But what a run!