Housing Rolling Along 2
- Thread starter Covertibility
- Start date
Looking to start a thread next year where the biggies (market cap above 5b) in the sector outperform the market. I've lost a little faith in this group. NRA is calling for moderation and healthy price appreciation but I think its going to be flat, but no collapse.
By Elisabeth Kubler Ross, adapted for ET
1. DENIAL. "This is just a temporary market correction. Prices will rise soon and we'll all be back to flat."
2. ANGER. F**ing Toll brothers. Selling out their own shares to spook the market. This is all technical crap. If it wasn't for these jokers screwing around we'd be up. Bunch of garbage.
3. BARGAINING. OK. So we're down. I'll just keep the faith, and things will be OK. You're with me on this one, God, right? I'll post good things on ET and Yahoo to show my faith has not wavered.
4. DEPRESSION. Oh man. I can't believe this is happening to me. I'm screwed.
5. ACCEPTANCE. Heyyyy.... if you can't be long, then you can always go short!
Just kidding around.... not flaming anyone!
1. DENIAL. "This is just a temporary market correction. Prices will rise soon and we'll all be back to flat."
2. ANGER. F**ing Toll brothers. Selling out their own shares to spook the market. This is all technical crap. If it wasn't for these jokers screwing around we'd be up. Bunch of garbage.
3. BARGAINING. OK. So we're down. I'll just keep the faith, and things will be OK. You're with me on this one, God, right? I'll post good things on ET and Yahoo to show my faith has not wavered.
4. DEPRESSION. Oh man. I can't believe this is happening to me. I'm screwed.
5. ACCEPTANCE. Heyyyy.... if you can't be long, then you can always go short!
Just kidding around.... not flaming anyone!
But the sector didn't go negative since I started this thread. Even going back a year, everything outperformed the market.
But where is this housing crash that was forecasted?
Sidenote:
DHI today
D.R. Horton profit rises 61%
The Fort Worth, Texas-based homebuilder said quarterly earnings rose to a record $563.8 million, or $1.77 a share, compared with $349.6 million, $1.11 a share in the year-ago period.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had forecast net income of $1.63 a share.
The company raised its profit outlook for fiscal 2006 to a range of $5.22 to $5.32 a share. Previously, D.R. Horton had forecast net income between $5 and $5.05 a share.
The company reiterated its earnings forecast for the fiscal first quarter of 2006 of 90 cents to 95 cents a share, while analysts see 99 cents a share.
At quarter-end, the company's backlog of homes awaiting construction was a record 19,244 homes with an estimated sales value of $5.8 billion, versus 17,184 homes and $4.6 billion the at the same time the prior year.
Meanwhile, revenue rose 45% to $5.1 billion from $3.5 billion the previous year, and homes closed increased 38% to 18,622 units.
But where is this housing crash that was forecasted?
Sidenote:
DHI today
D.R. Horton profit rises 61%
The Fort Worth, Texas-based homebuilder said quarterly earnings rose to a record $563.8 million, or $1.77 a share, compared with $349.6 million, $1.11 a share in the year-ago period.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had forecast net income of $1.63 a share.
The company raised its profit outlook for fiscal 2006 to a range of $5.22 to $5.32 a share. Previously, D.R. Horton had forecast net income between $5 and $5.05 a share.
The company reiterated its earnings forecast for the fiscal first quarter of 2006 of 90 cents to 95 cents a share, while analysts see 99 cents a share.
At quarter-end, the company's backlog of homes awaiting construction was a record 19,244 homes with an estimated sales value of $5.8 billion, versus 17,184 homes and $4.6 billion the at the same time the prior year.
Meanwhile, revenue rose 45% to $5.1 billion from $3.5 billion the previous year, and homes closed increased 38% to 18,622 units.
http://www.news10.net/storyfull2.aspx?storyid=14314
"The latest figures on home sales in Sacramento give further evidence that the Northern California real estate market is slowing down. A report from the California Building Industry Association shows new home sales in Northern California fell 40 percent during the past three months, compared to the same period last year. It's the sharpest such drop in the last 15 years."
"Pam Deangelis sees the slowdown as a correction in a market that's been overheated for several years. Deangelis said a year ago people would come in panic buying mode. 'They would come in and be anxious to buy anything we had available,' she said. Now they're in panic selling mode because it's taking them longer to sell their existing house.'"
"Deangelis added Cresleigh Homes is no longer taking contingency offers, because some would-be buyers have been unable to sell their current homes."
"To counter the decline, many developers are offering incentives to buyers. Some are putting in thousands of dollars in upgrades at no extra charge, while others are discounting the base price of homes by five to 10 percent."
"The cooling of housing market appears to be accelerating, although the market has been trending downward for much of the year. In the first ten months of 2005 new home sales fell by 14 percent over the same period in 2004."
"The latest figures on home sales in Sacramento give further evidence that the Northern California real estate market is slowing down. A report from the California Building Industry Association shows new home sales in Northern California fell 40 percent during the past three months, compared to the same period last year. It's the sharpest such drop in the last 15 years."
"Pam Deangelis sees the slowdown as a correction in a market that's been overheated for several years. Deangelis said a year ago people would come in panic buying mode. 'They would come in and be anxious to buy anything we had available,' she said. Now they're in panic selling mode because it's taking them longer to sell their existing house.'"
"Deangelis added Cresleigh Homes is no longer taking contingency offers, because some would-be buyers have been unable to sell their current homes."
"To counter the decline, many developers are offering incentives to buyers. Some are putting in thousands of dollars in upgrades at no extra charge, while others are discounting the base price of homes by five to 10 percent."
"The cooling of housing market appears to be accelerating, although the market has been trending downward for much of the year. In the first ten months of 2005 new home sales fell by 14 percent over the same period in 2004."
www.jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com
-In a survey conducted last week, real-estate consulting firm Real Trends found that the number of home-purchase contracts signed last month dropped 8% from a year earlier at 48 of the nation's large real-estate brokerage firms. Those brokers responded to an email poll sent to 80 brokerage firms.-
-In a survey conducted last week, real-estate consulting firm Real Trends found that the number of home-purchase contracts signed last month dropped 8% from a year earlier at 48 of the nation's large real-estate brokerage firms. Those brokers responded to an email poll sent to 80 brokerage firms.-
http://www2.townonline.com/concord/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=370619&format=&page=3
"Concord realtors acknowledge the market in town has cooled noticeably, especially in recent months. The total number of homes listed for sale in Concord has increased by approximately 81 percent since this time in 2003."
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_3224668
"In what could be a big shift in favor of buyers, home sales in the San Fernando Valley plunged an annual 16.1 percent during October to their lowest level for that month in five years. At the end of October, there was a 3.2-month supply of inventory, nearly twice the record low of several months ago. Jim Link said some sellers, especially at the more expensive end of the market, are reducing their asking prices."
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aA56iujBNDmE&refer=home
"U.S. housing starts fell in October and building permits dropped by the most in six years, suggesting higher mortgage rates are weighing on residential construction after four straight years of record sales."
Future buyers? Don't count on it....OWP
http://money.aol.com/bw/general/canvas3?id=20051114172709990001
"The average credit-card debt among 25-to-34-year-olds was $5,200 in 2004, 98% higher than in 1992. "Young people are taking on a level of debt that was never possible for an earlier generation because it's not based on income,...'"
"Real earnings for full-time workers between the ages of 25 and 34 who have only a bachelor's degree have, in fact, dropped by almost 10% since 2000, by 5% in 2004 alone. This exaggerates the burden of their debt. For many 30-year-olds, establishing themselves takes longer and is more complicated than they thought it would be. "It's so much more difficult to achieve the adult milestones today than it was 30 years ago," says Draut of the think tank Demos. "There is some sense of betrayal."
And this posting from a suburban Los Angeles realtor....
"Finally, some hard evidence of a slow down in the SFV. This was a really quick shift in a market that has been running ahead of the '04 sales pace. November volume should be down by a shocking amount, something like 25%, based on the lack of homes that have been going into escrow."
"I have to keep reminding myself to be patient. This is how it starts, first the sales volume dries up, then the prices fall."
And another post about "herd" mentality of the market...
"When I was young I was always mystified how thousands of small fish in a large school could simultaneously reverse course almost instantly. Small birds in large flocks can do almost the same. That massive simultaneous type of turn is what the market is beginning to look like to me, though it is more like a herd of elephants turning as fast as they can. Whereas stock sales had the "inertia" of small birds, house sales have the inertia of elephants - otherwise it might be as quick as the dotcom tank."
"Concord realtors acknowledge the market in town has cooled noticeably, especially in recent months. The total number of homes listed for sale in Concord has increased by approximately 81 percent since this time in 2003."
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_3224668
"In what could be a big shift in favor of buyers, home sales in the San Fernando Valley plunged an annual 16.1 percent during October to their lowest level for that month in five years. At the end of October, there was a 3.2-month supply of inventory, nearly twice the record low of several months ago. Jim Link said some sellers, especially at the more expensive end of the market, are reducing their asking prices."
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aA56iujBNDmE&refer=home
"U.S. housing starts fell in October and building permits dropped by the most in six years, suggesting higher mortgage rates are weighing on residential construction after four straight years of record sales."
Future buyers? Don't count on it....OWP
http://money.aol.com/bw/general/canvas3?id=20051114172709990001
"The average credit-card debt among 25-to-34-year-olds was $5,200 in 2004, 98% higher than in 1992. "Young people are taking on a level of debt that was never possible for an earlier generation because it's not based on income,...'"
"Real earnings for full-time workers between the ages of 25 and 34 who have only a bachelor's degree have, in fact, dropped by almost 10% since 2000, by 5% in 2004 alone. This exaggerates the burden of their debt. For many 30-year-olds, establishing themselves takes longer and is more complicated than they thought it would be. "It's so much more difficult to achieve the adult milestones today than it was 30 years ago," says Draut of the think tank Demos. "There is some sense of betrayal."
And this posting from a suburban Los Angeles realtor....
"Finally, some hard evidence of a slow down in the SFV. This was a really quick shift in a market that has been running ahead of the '04 sales pace. November volume should be down by a shocking amount, something like 25%, based on the lack of homes that have been going into escrow."
"I have to keep reminding myself to be patient. This is how it starts, first the sales volume dries up, then the prices fall."
And another post about "herd" mentality of the market...
"When I was young I was always mystified how thousands of small fish in a large school could simultaneously reverse course almost instantly. Small birds in large flocks can do almost the same. That massive simultaneous type of turn is what the market is beginning to look like to me, though it is more like a herd of elephants turning as fast as they can. Whereas stock sales had the "inertia" of small birds, house sales have the inertia of elephants - otherwise it might be as quick as the dotcom tank."
Some very strong words from a San Diego realtor...OWP
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20051117_sandiego.htm
"The grand opening long buyer lines, multiple offers, offers above the asking price and homes selling within days of being listed are just fond memories now. However, due to the huge home appreciation all San Diego real estate has seen, with the average home up 100 percent in the past 5 years, combined with the boom in 100 percent adjustable/interest only loans, the stage is set for what is sure to be mind-numbing depreciation."
"Yes, we have started on the down leg of the typical 'Bell Curve' and the probability of surpassing our approximate 20 percent drop in San Diego home values experienced from 1990 through 1996, seems assured. Plus, as real estate trends seem to start in the West and then move east, any U.S. real estate market that experienced huge price appreciation the past five years, will experience the same depreciation in real estate residential values."
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20051117_sandiego.htm
"The grand opening long buyer lines, multiple offers, offers above the asking price and homes selling within days of being listed are just fond memories now. However, due to the huge home appreciation all San Diego real estate has seen, with the average home up 100 percent in the past 5 years, combined with the boom in 100 percent adjustable/interest only loans, the stage is set for what is sure to be mind-numbing depreciation."
"Yes, we have started on the down leg of the typical 'Bell Curve' and the probability of surpassing our approximate 20 percent drop in San Diego home values experienced from 1990 through 1996, seems assured. Plus, as real estate trends seem to start in the West and then move east, any U.S. real estate market that experienced huge price appreciation the past five years, will experience the same depreciation in real estate residential values."
here is a link with inventory numbers.
South East Florida is so doomed its not even funny...
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Florida/Miami/