Housing Rolling Along 2

Quote from Copernicus:

between consumer confidence, new home sales, and mortgage apps are you riding these things all the way down?
u have to reallize that fundamental guys have been trimming their positions for some time now.
whats your agenda anyway, you are sure not making a dime trading the hgx, are you flipping houses?
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Depends on where one got in. The more appropriate term should be, are you still riding these things up.

So now its consumer confidence and mortgage apps that are the signs of a crash? What happened to the Fed raising rates? What about the idiocity earlier in the year that more inventory was suppose to make prices fall? Notice in the real world, even bears on housing are not selling (any of) their homes.
 
Quote from balda:

Commerce Department said new-home sales dropped 9.9% in August from July


http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2005-09-27-aug-newhomes-conf_x.htm
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There was a divergence between existing home sales and new homes sales earlier in the year. The next report should smooth it all out.


Here's what Lennar posted the other day: Lennar beats profit estimates
Homebuilder lifts full-year target, citing strong market

My God the CEO was telling the truth about strong sales numbers. Cramer had one guy from LEN yesterday and he wasn't selling a share.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

There was a divergence between existing home sales and new homes sales earlier in the year. The next report should smooth it all out.
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You are indeed correct....the next report should "smooth it all out." Of course by then the "door" will not be large enough for everyone to fit through at once. :-)

Is it really different this time??? Toll Bros is now down almost 33% from the July highs, HOV down over 35%, etc...there are many "in the know" selling into this bubble.

ratio.jpg
 
Comments from a San Diego mortgage broker....OWP

http://sandiegobroker.blogspot.com/



"This thing is over in San Diego, September last year we had 67 loans coming from real estate agents, this month we have had 8. I am being told that the buyers have vanished and all that is left is people trying to sell. Some of these sellers are dropping prices by as much as 30% and they are still sitting. Luckily, these Option ARM loans are very profitable and the refinance business continues to boom."

"I hope all of my fellow mortgage brokers have managed to stash some cash under the mattress. I just sold my last piece of real estate and I am going to watch the storm roll in from the side lines."
 
oh, how i love it. bunker time is coming.

Quote from onewaypockets:

Comments from a San Diego mortgage broker....OWP

http://sandiegobroker.blogspot.com/



"This thing is over in San Diego, September last year we had 67 loans coming from real estate agents, this month we have had 8. I am being told that the buyers have vanished and all that is left is people trying to sell. Some of these sellers are dropping prices by as much as 30% and they are still sitting. Luckily, these Option ARM loans are very profitable and the refinance business continues to boom."

"I hope all of my fellow mortgage brokers have managed to stash some cash under the mattress. I just sold my last piece of real estate and I am going to watch the storm roll in from the side lines."
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lol.... this guy is saying what i've been saying in a different housing thread.

especially about the backruptcy law changes

Quote from onewaypockets:

Comments from a San Diego mortgage broker....OWP

http://sandiegobroker.blogspot.com/



"This thing is over in San Diego, September last year we had 67 loans coming from real estate agents, this month we have had 8. I am being told that the buyers have vanished and all that is left is people trying to sell. Some of these sellers are dropping prices by as much as 30% and they are still sitting. Luckily, these Option ARM loans are very profitable and the refinance business continues to boom."

"I hope all of my fellow mortgage brokers have managed to stash some cash under the mattress. I just sold my last piece of real estate and I am going to watch the storm roll in from the side lines."
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Record low for home affordability in California

Home-price appreciation next year will be stronger in inland areas than in coastal areas, Kleinhenz said, adding that the overall pace of home-price appreciation in California was expected to slow next year.

"For 2006, we're saying California's median home price will go up by 10 percent, compared with a projected increase of 16 percent for 2005," Kleinhenz said.

---------

This was what David A. Lereah, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS, said would happen awhile ago on CNBC. Highly priced areas would come down as people moved outward. Now what comes after that? It all hinges on what the economy does.

But those looking for a crash, there is a problem:

Mortgage_rate_100605.gif,hmedium.jpg


Money is still cheap.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

But those looking for a crash, there is a problem:

Money is still cheap.
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So what? You think it's necessary for rates to spike up before the housing market can crash?

Just wondering what will it take for the housing bulls to realize the market is sinking.
 
Just to let you guys know - I am starting to sell too. My wife is pissed at me. First she was crying - and last night she went to bed angry with me for the first time in over 5 years we have been married.

She is 8.5 months pregnant and selling the beautiful home we are building is pretty tough on the nesting instinct.

Just hope it sells. So far here in the hottest market in the country we still have a lot of buyers but inventory is returning to normal levels. And when I talk to my friends in San Diego, it has slowed down.
 
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