Housing Rolling Along 2

I'm amazed I'm seeing Dominion Homes as an indicator of the homebuilders. That company has had problems since '04 and look who it caters: Ohio. Who wants to live in Ohio?
 
Quote from Covertibility:

I'm amazed I'm seeing Dominion Homes as an indicator of the homebuilders. That company has had problems since '04 and look who it caters: Ohio. Who wants to live in Ohio?

I see...so you don't like DHOM's "story".

I've got it figured out now. You are into "story" stocks, like the kind CNBC and Cramer, IBD, Wall Street Jour., etc, spoon feed you daily in the mass media. You know the kind, where CNBC interviews the kindly, expensive suited MBA-ish CEO who paints a glowing rosy picture. That makes sense since you paste the propaganda press releases on this thread.

Since you don't like the "story" on Dominion (or the state of Ohio for some reason) how about you pick another home builder with a great story and we can all follow along while it sinks further.

Do not limit it to this list, but feel free to pick from the following.

DHOM-down 53.25% from recent highs, and down 72.93% from last years highs.

TOL-down 36.34% and falling. CEO and all insiders selling millions of shares as fast as they can.

KBH-down 26.11% and falling.

WLS-down 30.27% and sinking really fast.

HOV-down 38.68%

CFC-down 25.93%

FNM-down nearly 50% in the last couple of years.

The list goes on and on. I started off with DHOM because they were the first (that I was aware of), that guided downward. I believe all the others I list above will guide down or miss earnings soon. This whole sector is toast. There will be no "soft landing". Parabolic charts ALWAYS end badly.

What again is your exit strategy??? Or are you viewing this "pullback" as another buying opportunity???
 
ROFL. Notice that the homebuilders are relatively flat on the year yet for some reason people are basing their performance relative to their highs for the year. Ya gotta have patience with this sector. Look at the history of these guys and you'll see they're slow movers.

Here's a little more representative of the housing market:

D.R. Horton's quarterly orders rise 33%

The Ft. Worth, Texas-based company said orders for the quarter ended Sept. 30 were 13,950 homes with a sales value of $3.8 billion, compared with 11,105 homes and $2.8 billion in the year-ago period.

Net sales orders for fiscal 2005 were up 28% from last year to a record $14.6 billion, D.R. Horton said.

All five regions in which the company operates recorded double-digit increases in both sales dollars and units for the fiscal fourth quarter, said Chairman Donald Horton.

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I remember someone calling this a POS.
 
Quote from onewaypockets:

I believe you are quite correct. Nationwide of recent, option arms and other mortgages that are going to reset are running about 25%, on average. This is because in huge areas of the nation there is not really much of a bubble at all.

But in ALL the areas where there has been breathtaking appreciation, including California, Mass, Fl, NY, Las Vegas, etc these adjustables with low teasers run as high as 85%.

There is no doubt fallout will occur on a regional basis. I expect no really big "event" in states like South Dakota, Nebraska, etc. I would bet that in states like the two I just mentioned there is not much, if any, speculative activity that would lead to a bubble blow-out. In some "intermediate" cities, like Boise , Minneapolis, Spokane, etc, there could be a bit of a fallout from quite a bit of speculation, but I expect the most of the extreme pain in cities like San Diego, Los Angeles, Boston, Las Vegas, where things are going to be very interesting.
you are correct. i live in south dakota. you can still buy a new home here for about what it costs to build it.
example that i am working on selling. 8 year old 4200sq ft all brick home 5 miles from city center is valued at 299000.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

ROFL. Notice that the homebuilders are relatively flat on the year yet for some reason people are basing their performance relative to their highs for the year. Ya gotta have patience with this sector. Look at the history of these guys and you'll see they're slow movers.

Here's a little more representative of the housing market:

D.R. Horton's quarterly orders rise 33%

The Ft. Worth, Texas-based company said orders for the quarter ended Sept. 30 were 13,950 homes with a sales value of $3.8 billion, compared with 11,105 homes and $2.8 billion in the year-ago period.

Net sales orders for fiscal 2005 were up 28% from last year to a record $14.6 billion, D.R. Horton said.

All five regions in which the company operates recorded double-digit increases in both sales dollars and units for the fiscal fourth quarter, said Chairman Donald Horton.

----------

I remember someone calling this a POS.

Got it. So DHI is your story stock and Donald Horton is your "suit".

Down 27.72% in the last three months.

I take it (as your regurgitate the public press release) that you view this as a buying opportunity, as you have "patience" for these "slow movers"!!!!

When do you pull the plug on your holdings in this sector??? At 50% down, 70%, what????

Stay tuned.
 
Quote from vhehn:

you are correct. i live in south dakota. you can still buy a new home here for about what it costs to build it.
example that i am working on selling. 8 year old 4200sq ft all brick home 5 miles from city center is valued at 299000.

Is it possible that people in South Dakota and Nebraska are just smarter than Californians ? Sure looks that way :D
 
Quote from prt_systems:

Is it possible that people in South Dakota and Nebraska are just smarter than Californians ? Sure looks that way :D

we have lots of land and many people dont like to live where it gets cold in the winter.
 
Quote from onewaypockets:

Got it. So DHI is your story stock and Donald Horton is your "suit".

Down 27.72% in the last three months.

I take it (as your regurgitate the public press release) that you view this as a buying opportunity, as you have "patience" for these "slow movers"!!!!

When do you pull the plug on your holdings in this sector??? At 50% down, 70%, what????

Stay tuned.

{Sarcasm}DHI, now there is a healthy chart.{/Sarcasm}
 
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