Housing Rolling Along 2

Quote from crackedback:

Why don't they just drop the price??? It's an obvious attempt to keep comps up. Lennar has been cutting prices 15% without much resistance. Just say you want to buy and prices are too high... 15% off.

Valley sellers and builders offering top-notch incentives to potential buyers

Lou Hirsh
The Desert Sun
August 27, 2006

In the Coachella Valley's crowded and competitive housing market, what will it take to get buyers into some of those 7,000 unsold new and resale homes? Costa Mesa investor Andrew Birnbaum is dangling a special prize for the buyer of his condominium at Deep Canyon Tennis Club in Palm Desert: A brand-new set of European-made Hippo golf clubs, valued around $500.

"It's ironic that it's a tennis club, and we're offering golf clubs," said Birnbaum, who with two other investors owns the three-bedroom condo listed since June around $322,500. "But we're getting a lot of people notice the listing and they call in: 'Hey, what kind of clubs are they; what's the condo like?'"

In Salton City, Charlotte Roa is raising the stakes a little higher. Her Riverside-based company, Helping Hands Investment, is offering a brand-new Kia Rio car - valued at $12,000 - to each buyer of one of the five manufactured homes being built near the Salton Sea, each with four bedrooms and priced starting around $199,000.

"We're trying to help people save money on the home and also on the gas," said Roa, whose company has built affordable housing units in places like Banning. "If they live in Salton City and work in Indio, they'll be able to get better mileage."

That's just a small sampling of what's being put on the table, as valley sellers try to stoke a smoldering - but currently sluggish - buyers' market. Valley home prices generally continue to rise, lately hovering just over a median of $400,000, even though unsold inventory is more than twice the level of a year ago, and recent monthly sales counts are down more than 25 percent.

Reacting to sluggish sales, local sellers are now putting into play the kind of home-shopper lures seen in communities around the nation. Sellers of new and resale homes are increasingly dropping list prices by tens of thousands of dollars.

New-home builders large and small are offering numerous incentives, throwing in free swimming pools, spas, landscaping and tiling upgrades. Some are helping out with financing - for instance, "buying down" the cost of home loans by paying 1 percent or more of the buyer's expected monthly mortgage costs.

"The market is very competitive because (sales) have fallen off from when all the builders were taking advantage of a good local market," said Rod Dargatz, director of sales for San Diego-based Trans West Housing's desert operations. "You now have more standing inventory, and builders have costs to carry."

Some home builders are also doing what they've rarely done in the valley - paying commissions of 3 percent to 6 percent to real estate agents and brokers who bring in customers.

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"You never saw that two years ago," said Leo Torres, an agent with Tarbell Realtors in La Quinta. "Some of those builders wouldn't even talk to us."

While an exact count of the market's for-sale new homes is not available, those properties are adding to toughening competition among resale properties. While the median market time for resale homes in the past six months has been around 66 days - up from 41 days a year ago - Torres said he's recently seen several homes on the market for more than 300 days, across the pricing spectrum.

The key reason is sellers' unwillingness to lower prices.

"People aren't pricing the homes where the market is now," Torres said. "They're pricing them based on where the market was a couple of years ago."

Builder Mario Gonzales, a valley native who has been constructing homes for more than 28 years, has seen many local markets like this and isn't panicking. That's in spite of the fact his company is selling on average around one home per week per development, compared with the two or more seen throughout 2004 and early 2005.

"We've generally tried not to lower prices," said Gonzales, president and CEO of Cathedral City-based GHA Companies, which has developments throughout the valley.

Instead, Gonzales said, GHA has kept sales going by offering flexible financing programs to certain buyers, and also giving financing and price incentives to buyers who agree to close the purchase in a certain time frame. At some developments, the company throws in free rear-yard landscaping, extended tiling and other amenities.

Among its strategies to keep showroom traffic flowing, Dargatz said Trans West has a program in place at some of its valley developments where the builder has become a lending entity in partnership with Countrywide Home Loans.

Trans West is essentially carrying 1 percent of the buyer's lending costs on some of its sales. For instance, if the prevailing rate on the loan for a particular customer is 7.25 percent (based on credit history and other variables), the Trans West program sets monthly payments based on a 6.25 percent rate.

At the lower end of the valley's housing price spectrum, Dargatz said that would save a buyer around $150 to $250 a month, while at the higher end, the savings could be $600 to $800 a month.

"For some buyers, that could put a BMW in their garage," Dargatz said.

Gonzales and other locally based builders contend that the current climate is actually closer to a "normal" market than what was seen in 2004. At that time, a flurry of buyers, including an untolled number of speculative "flippers," drove up prices and demand at historically unheard-of rates.

At that time, buyers lined up at sales offices or entered lotteries to purchase homes that had not yet been built - and often waited several months to see construction completed on their houses.

Home building rates have since slowed down to more accurately reflect demand, and houses are now built in much smaller phases, builders note.

Barring an unforeseen economic event, Gonzales and other builders predict it will likely take 12 to 15 months for the market to fully absorb the current supply of unsold new valley homes.

"I'm still optimistic (about the local housing market) because of the macroeconomics of this country," Gonzales said. "The economy is still good; you can still get a 30-year-fixed loan for around 6 percent - the rates are still historically low."

While it remains to be seen how well the latest incentives and giveaways move the market, the strategies are at least piquing the interest of home shoppers like Amy Blaisdell.

Blaisdell's family is seriously considering moving from the San Francisco Bay Area to La Quinta or north Indio, and in her research she has been thrilled to see "everything included" in the ads from major home builders.

She said Lennar, for instance, is offering amenities like granite counters and cherry cabinets as standard equipment - often still considered upgrades by many developers.

But the actual deciding factor for Blaisdell will be which builder offers the best deal that includes a swimming pool in the price.

"That means an additional $30,000 in damage to your pocketbook," said Blaisdell. "It just seems crazy to me to live in the desert without a pool."

"Thank goodness it seems some developers in the desert are figuring this out," she added. "Just recently I saw a few ads in the (newspaper) real estate section proclaiming 'pool included' and I almost jumped for joy."

Its an unwritten law with large builders that you don't cut prices in subdivisions where you have sold to others at higher prices.

Builders can't help but make implications that the home prices are going up when they sell to buyers. A lot of the sales offices were manned by kids in their early 20's. Order takers. No telling what they said.

Cutting prices on the same floor plan in a halfway built out subdivsion is asking for a law suit.

John
 
Debt Draws Attention
By Terry Savage
TheStreet.com Contributor
8/27/2006 9:47 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/ec...s/10305903.html




Is the U.S. bankrupt?

In a study published earlier this month, economist Lawrence Kotlikoff pointed out that the U.S. is responsible for $80 trillion in future entitlement promises -- a figure about six times larger than the U.S. economy. To make good on those promises, future workers would have to pay tax rates ranging from 55% to 80% of their incomes!

The same week that Kotlikoff's study ran in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bulletin, the comptroller general of the U.S. said, "Current fiscal policy is not sustainable, and hard choices must be made ... we're mortgaging the future of our children and grandchildren and creating a shameful legacy."

Finally, some knowledgeable and authoritative people are starting to bring this national crisis to the attention of the public.
Fiscal Wake-Up Tour

The comptroller general, David Walker, is on a national "Fiscal Responsibility Wake-Up Tour" -- a nonpartisan effort to educate the public to the crisis that looms, not only in the next few years, but as baby boomers retire.

Walker, who is in the midst of a 15-year term, is being supported by both political liberals and conservatives in his efforts to shine a light on the budget problems that are approaching. Here are some of the facts that he pointed out in a presentation last week:

About 60% of our federal spending is now mandatory, primarily because of Medicare and Social Security obligations and interest on the national debt.

While the 2005 budget deficit was widely reported at $318 billion, if it is calculated on an operating basis like one that most companies use, the year's deficit was easily double that amount.

We finance our deficits by borrowing -- and 50% of our public debt is currently owned by foreigners.

Interest on the national debt is expected to be about $200 billion this year -- around the same amount that we spend on Medicare.

We currently have a $46 trillion liability for Medicare and Social Security obligations -- and the new drug bill will easily add another $8 trillion in promises.

Over the next 25 years, Medicare spending will grow at nearly five times the rate of GDP growth.

Every newborn arrives with an immediate debt of $156,000 -- which constitutes fiscal child abuse!

Walker's presentation is on the General Accountability Office's Web site. You should see the data for yourself because a picture is worth a thousand bullet points!

These are MEGO numbers. That stands for "My Eyes Glaze Over." And that's why our huge and growing financial disaster doesn't stand much chance of gaining attention, especially in a world dominated by reality television shows and news headlines about perverts. When more people take the time to vote for dancing partners or dubious singing talent than vote for the president or their own congressional representatives, then we have only ourselves to blame.

Or we could say that we are setting ourselves up for the blame that our children will heap on us for being the first generation to leave this country worse off than we found it.

Walker points out that time is working against us, so we have to act now. Since we're in a period of economic growth, with relatively low interest rates, it's the perfect time to get our financial house in order. (That's the same advice I've been giving to consumers!)

The real problem is the exponential increase of the deficit 20 years down the line, when boomer retirees will be dependent on promised payments from government. This will implode the system.
Spending Solutions

Tough choices must be made, according to Walker.

Among his first targets is the out-of-control growth in health care spending. He calls on the country to debate the issue of what type of "basic and essential health care" the government should provide citizens vs. what people should pay for themselves.

He challenges Congress to assert greater control over the budgetary process, and urges the authorization of a line-item "rescission" that would allow the president to cut individual items from the budget. A 50% vote of Congress would be required to restore any cuts, leading to more transparency in spending. Overall, he says, the challenge is to re-engineer and transform our government into a 21st-century operation.

If we don't immediately start dealing with our financial problems, says the comptroller, we risk the fate of the Roman empire, once the most powerful on the face of the globe. Perhaps someone should have shouted out that the emperor wasn't wearing any clothes! And that's The Savage Truth.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

There's this thread on this site called RE is dead where I mocked many of the posters for such idiocy. One of the stocks I touted there was TOL. Since that thread started homebuilders soared including a double in TOL. Such an easy play. What now? Ya we'll get an airpocket where prices decline, but in the long run, these things are safe and sound.

I just read this, and all I have to say is:

LMFAO!!!


Toll has lost 60% of its share price since you made this brilliant call...
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I just read this, and all I have to say is:

LMFAO!!!


Toll has lost 60% of its share price since you made this brilliant call...

Well Mister 9 post, if you've around here I had posted TOL since '04 and oh what an easy double in a short period. I did say it was time to sell last year too.

Now just for a laugh, whats your other screenname. Or better yet, do you sell insurance for a living? lol. I guess I'll find out soon... :cool:
 
Quote from Covertibility:

Well Mister 9 post, if you've around here I had posted TOL since '04 and oh what an easy double in a short period. I did say it was time to sell last year too.

Now just for a laugh, whats your other screenname. Or better yet, do you sell insurance for a living? lol.

I was only joking.

I don't have another screen name, and I don't sell insurance.

True story.

The real question any investor should ask right now is, will housing stocks drop further given share dilution.
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

and yet they still refuse to lower their prices....

amazing

And they won't lower the price is until it is evident that prices are actually dropping. RE prices always lag, economists refer to this as "stickiness". Prices do not react immedialtely to changing fundamentals, but once they do, watch out. Right now investors are hearing that if they can't sell they can rent, so there is a psychological safety net. I think in some markets (Phoenix comes to mind) where you have had significant investor/flipper activity, you could see prices and rents drop.
 
Quote from Arnie:

And they won't lower the price is until it is evident that prices are actually dropping. RE prices always lag, economists refer to this as "stickiness". Prices do not react immedialtely to changing fundamentals, but once they do, watch out. Right now investors are hearing that if they can't sell they can rent, so there is a psychological safety net. I think in some markets (Phoenix comes to mind) where you have had significant investor/flipper activity, you could see prices and rents drop.

homes sold with concessions are lower prices. how'd you like to close on a home at $750,000 in Phase III and see Phase IV next door same model listed at $699,000? they will put in upgrades, do closing costs, put a car in the garage, etc, before they actually cut the sticker price. it will be interesting to see how desperate lenders are, as those concessions and give-aways should be "netted" out of price, shich will likely lower loan amount and raise LTV.
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

homes sold with concessions are lower prices. how'd you like to close on a home at $750,000 in Phase III and see Phase IV next door same model listed at $699,000? they will put in upgrades, do closing costs, put a car in the garage, etc, before they actually cut the sticker price. it will be interesting to see how desperate lenders are, as those concessions and give-aways should be "netted" out of price, shich will likely lower loan amount and raise LTV.

Not only that, but homes sold with concessions allow builders and realtors to claim that the average median sale prices are higher than they truly are - thus, minimizing the dramatic events that are unfolding, and suckering people in the process.

The concessions also allow builders to play cute accounting tricks, as well.
 
Now that I only own the home I live in, I am not talking my book.

But, over the last few weeks there has ben a lot of buying in our once great bubble market.

One of the builder did slashed prices, but they sold 30 home in the last month to six weeks.

My friend who works in a sales office said his builder sold 10 and thee have been a ton of cars in front of the models.

The paper said that there has been a lot of title work. I think this reprieve on the interest rates may have allowed people with variable rate mortgages to refi and it also forced some buyers on the sidelines to buy while the mortgages are not so bad.
 
Quote from jem:

Now that I only own the home I live in, I am not talking my book.

But, over the last few weeks there has ben a lot of buying in our once great bubble market.

One of the builder did slashed prices, but they sold 30 home in the last month to six weeks.

My friend who works in a sales office said his builder sold 10 and thee have been a ton of cars in front of the models.

The paper said that there has been a lot of title work. I think this reprieve on the interest rates may have allowed people with variable rate mortgages to refi and it also forced some buyers on the sidelines to buy while the mortgages are not so bad.

Can you say "dead cat bounce"?

RoughTrader
 
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