Where are you? Vero? Melbourne?
Housing Rolling Along 2
- Thread starter Covertibility
- Start date
The problem with South Florida is that the so called inventory statistics include everything Miami- Ft Lauderdale- West Palm, and there is a lot opening in Miami inflating the inventories every week. If there was an inventory statistic just for Ft Laud to West Palm it wouldnt be half as bad.
All I know is every time I drive down to Miami I see construction cranes and high rises and the building is continuing. It must be maddening to be trying to sell 10 years worth of inventory with no buyers and with developers still committed to building already started projects. I know there is a lot of South American immigration and Cuban etc. coming into the area but there is NO way that inventory is going to be picked up by relatively low income foreigners for many years. When one figures in the major problems down there with traffic and congestion (I have seen I95 come to complete stand stills for hours after minor accidents) and constant road construction in the West Palm area its easy to see why we are getting a lot of buyers from down south saying "to hell with this" and moving our way.
TS
This is what I was saying. In North Central Florida, prices didn't dip much at all...maybe like 8%, and we're holding steady. The better (smaller) places are starting to move again with the dip in rates.
SM
Yeah baby. So if a funny-looking guy like me was to assemble a portfolio of rental properties in North Florida and hang on to it while Floridians continue to migrate northward away from the insanity in to his territory, thereby raising the prices significantly, he might just laugh all the way to the bank...
Trendsailor, appreciate your insights but unfortunately, realtors nowadays are about as useful as specialists are in maintainging orderly markets.
I don't want to diminish the importance of buyer's brokers and the 2% they would be getting from the trade. I will meet with one who will show me about 20-30 houses in CT the next few weeks. The 10k they will make from the 2 parties will be worth it.
Let me go out on a limb here in predicting that is 3-4 years, the listing side of the business will be supplanted by the realtor "ECN's" (the flat fee listing service who charge $200 to get your house in the MLS). I have my interests protected by me, myself and I and a really good lawyer.
What suprises me is that the "cartel" allows these flatfee MLS realtors to exist. Actually, they probably did not let them, the courts most likely ruled against the cartel to cease adn desists their anti-competitive rules in the MLS.
BTW I really value the "bufers" that needs to exist between counterparties in an emotionally laden transaction to soften the presentation of issues that arise such as broken pipes, leaking roof,etc. But do you really need the ff buffers? my lawyer, his lawyer, my realtor, his realtor. This is why good lawyers are needed.
I have metrics available in the internet, county records, plain old fashioned research to help me ballpark the house and if I am off by 10K it is still better than paying 25K in fees.
I don't need someone to tell me my house is 600k to get the listing for 6 months, only to discover that my house is really 550 which mean i just wasted 3 weeks at 600, 3 weeks at 570, 3 weeks at 560 before I get any looks.
I don't want to diminish the importance of buyer's brokers and the 2% they would be getting from the trade. I will meet with one who will show me about 20-30 houses in CT the next few weeks. The 10k they will make from the 2 parties will be worth it.
Let me go out on a limb here in predicting that is 3-4 years, the listing side of the business will be supplanted by the realtor "ECN's" (the flat fee listing service who charge $200 to get your house in the MLS). I have my interests protected by me, myself and I and a really good lawyer.
What suprises me is that the "cartel" allows these flatfee MLS realtors to exist. Actually, they probably did not let them, the courts most likely ruled against the cartel to cease adn desists their anti-competitive rules in the MLS.
BTW I really value the "bufers" that needs to exist between counterparties in an emotionally laden transaction to soften the presentation of issues that arise such as broken pipes, leaking roof,etc. But do you really need the ff buffers? my lawyer, his lawyer, my realtor, his realtor. This is why good lawyers are needed.
I have metrics available in the internet, county records, plain old fashioned research to help me ballpark the house and if I am off by 10K it is still better than paying 25K in fees.
I don't need someone to tell me my house is 600k to get the listing for 6 months, only to discover that my house is really 550 which mean i just wasted 3 weeks at 600, 3 weeks at 570, 3 weeks at 560 before I get any looks.
I flat out won't work as a Buyer's Agent unless I get an exclusive right up front since its is HELL work and a VERY low probability prospect. After about 10 listings all the buyers muddle all the properties together in their heads and can't recall any of them clearly. Then they want to go back and forth re-looking again then want to see 10-20 more. When you finally get it whittled down to the top 2-3 the wife or the husband disagree on the style (macho vs. femme') then start arguing among themselves. Then if they can compromise they make a ultra low ball offer against all our recommendations which puts up defensive shields and the seller's say "sorry, you are not real and are personna non-gratta with me" and then the buyers cop an attitude and start making it an emotional contest to get even. Then they try the low ball game with somone else and usually get similar results. Then they law low for a few weeks and lose interest or are so embarrassed about being cheap SOBs they go get another Realtor to start it all over again and the Realtor's effective hourly rate after expenses goes to below minimum wage. It's a dirty little secret that 80% of Realtors make less than $30K/yr (poverty by my standards) and the next 10% average about $65K-$85K and the top 10% make between $110K - $300K with the upper 2% making over $700K or so.
Since it used to be an investors' market that was the clientele I worked with and that was a super high probability deal and I was batting 80% sales all the way to closing per client. With average retail homeowner clients the probability drops way down to maybe 1 closing per 8-10 buyer prospects in the same 6-month to 1 year period. That is drudgery work. The worst of it is having to share the deal on the other side with an incompetent agent or a discount broker who is too inept to get the deal to closing and you end up doing the work for both sides of the deal and get half the commission. Most of us are SO HAPPY that the high volume discounters are going out of business now since they really were lousy both for the market and for all parties.
I'd take you up on your bet about ECN's. I see it going the opposite in fact. Large top of the line premium brokers like REMAX have so many national listings that we can make our own market and do not have to be extorted into giving "our" contracts to any virtual free loader who wants to glom on to our listing contracts with a listing fee while we do all the work. If the courts force Realtors to let everyone have access to all our data and listings then the MLS as it was constructed by Realtors for Realtors will deconstruct and brokers will no longer openly cooperate. Instead they will pull listings out of the public domain and put them in large private listing services where they will essentially pink-sheet (like NASDAQ) with other full service brokers who have a history of fair cooperation. Brokers have all the risk on that listing data for errors and the legal ownership of the listing contract. Especially in this market Buyers NEED Realtors big time. I personally turn down listings all the time (and privately laugh) when a seller demands I give a discount and advertise etc. and open house etc. In this market advertising dollars get drained fast due to the length of time on market. If I get so much as a hint that a buyer is not willing to negotiate with an interested prospect I cancel the listings (I put my own escape clause in the contract) and look for another higher quality seller/property with more reasonable expectations). There are tons of listings to be had right now and frankly I cherry pick the ones I will list. I leave the ridiculous properties and the unreasonable owners to the newbie agents to waste their time on. In fact senior and proven Realtors are now getting well over 6% full commissions now and bonuses and concessions from sellers to list. In a funny sort of way the current market is very good for Realtors since its shaking out the bad brokers, the poor agents and leaving us better ones with higher commissions and lots of inventory to pick and chose from.
As for lawyers - in FL Realtors are fully legally qualified and authorized to draw up all the contracts and addendums and paperwork. We are given extensive training and use pre-approved Florida BAR and NAR approved contracts that have stood the test of time and every legal assault imaginable. Few lawyers (unless they do nothing but real estate) have anywhere near the experience the average Realtor has in forming these sales contracts. In fact we have special legal hot lines we use for the occasional odd ball thing that might develop to check into some special clause or condition one party might want etc. That is not to say some agents do not on occasion mess up a special write in clause for some weird contingency or something; there are some loose cannons out there.
I usually protect my buyer clients with inspection clauses that essentially make the entire contract an "option contract" that they can get out for any reason except fraud. When representing seller's I limit the time window a buyer can back out and force them to let us continue to list until all contingencies are met so we can take backups and not ever be off the market. I also demand escalating deposits to separate the dreamers from the real buyers. Nothing like having to pony up a huge chunk of cash up front then another 2nd deposit after inspection as a reality and sobriety check to re-ratify their psychology and wake them up that this is a real deal with real consequences. But basically if a lawyer so much as strikes a single standard term in one of my contracts I generally tell the other party to take a hike and resubmit the offer on standard contract forms. I even had to rewrite one contract for another Realtor since their lawyer kept messing up a $1.5M deal with conflicting verbiage he amended. They finally figured out I knew what I was doing and fired their attorney and we had a good close.
My experience is an attorney will 7 times out of 10 screw up the contract and deal so bad that it scares off the other party or it becomes one sided and unfair and again busts the deal. IN those cases we generally never get to closing since everyone is gun shy. Its fundamentally TRUST and having an agent(s) that on a human level they can relate with and feel good about. After trust its just paperwork. I have closed many 6 figure contracts with just hand shakes and instructions to "just do it as you say" and a final signature and review. Also if an attorney starts mucking with the standard contracts everyone gets guns shy and the title company and mortgage company also needs more time to close to review all the extraneous terms that were deviated from standard practise. Attorneys have ruined or busted more good deals and sales in FL than they have helped. All that really matters in FL is getting clear tile with Title Insurance (standard on everything we do here). The tile company does all that for us and conducts the closing.
If there is a contract problem its usually just a case of seller's or buyer's remorse and someone looking for a way to renege on the deal. Realtors earn their salt here and often can assuage fears and anxieties and get the psychology normalized and balanced again. When there is persistent remorse a party(s) will fabricate attacks on minute terms of the contract. When that happens I have to be tough for my client and have no problem claiming the deposit for my seller and going to arbitration or negotiating for my buyer a concession on terms or a portion of escrow. In that latter case I have never failed to get a seller to give back a buyer client 100% of his deposit through persuasion (no not knives and guns) and helping get him a new buyer.
But you also seem to be in the upper 5% of people with the wherewithal to handle your own closing process and due diligence. That's exactly how I started. Good luck to you just make sure that the deal is a win-win with no perception of unfairness and that everyone is in a trust relationship or it can go to hell fast as you approach closing and people start getting nervous.
Enjoyed the chat,
TS
Bottom line is this, for thousands less than a tiny 2/2 condo in Miami one can get a nice brand new t-home, with 2 car garage, in good location in Southern Palm Beach county.
So there is a bubble in Miami, and there is rest of South Florida where deals on new inventories are getting snapped up quickly.
Pabst what was interesting is that before this price roll back my sense of relative value was driving me nuts. I could not tell anyone to buy here because I thought San Diego was a better value. Especially in the high end waterfront market.
Of course there may be more luxury demand here as the rich from up north wish to live in FL so their grandkids can visit. Or so you can fly down for a 3 day weekend.
I live in Lakewood Ranch one of the kick us masterplanned communities in the whole country. But it is still 8-14 miles from the water.
So I think it sort of compares with Poway. Perhaps Carlsbad because it is north of San Diego by a bit.
the new subdivisions in carlsbad were going for 300 bucks a square foot give or take a little.
Prices in our country club area were looking at 350 and more a square foot.
My home which is just outside the country club but walking distance to the schools was probably looking at about 260 to 280 at the top of the market.
Our area has rolled back 10-25 percent on a per square foot basis if you want to sell your home -- and depending on how nice it is.
San Diego is still clinging to a 8% on the median number but that number is not an accurate number in my opinion.
As far as waterfront properties go, hands down I think Sarasota is significantly overpriced relative to Southern Ca. But if you are a powerboater or fisherman, I understand.