Housing Rolling Along 2

Exactly wtf?

I wasn't ripping on Pabst? I just think that it's funny that he changed his name to Pa(b)st Prime.

Pabst pointed me to that thread when I questioned him about his name in the ET chat room a few weeks ago.

I think he's a funny guy - No harm intended.

You ET'ers need to lighten up...geez
 
I suffered thru a "presentation" by a realtor yesterday about how she should be the listing agent even afer telling her that I already had a FSBO buyer at 560K . She said I am selling my house too cheap at 560 and that i should mkt it at 600k. After her cut assuming a pie in the sky bid of 600 i would net 564 net commisssion. she said it with such a straight face that it reminds me of specilists when they have to explain to educated traders why they are needed.
 
Quote from GATrader:

I suffered thru a "presentation" by a realtor yesterday about how she should be the listing agent even afer telling her that I already had a FSBO buyer at 560K . She said I am selling my house too cheap at 560 and that i should mkt it at 600k. After her cut assuming a pie in the sky bid of 600 i would net 564 net commisssion. she said it with such a straight face that it reminds me of specilists when they have to explain to educated traders why they are needed.
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Having been on both sides of this situation I can comment in a fairly neutral way. I am now a broker/realtor since that was the best way for me to get the best deals as an investor and access to minute by minute information. It all became "work" after I got a following of other investors who wanted to make money with me. The market has now turned and is very soft. There are 3-4 major reasons why it is soft and a few very good reasons that should eventually make it hot again (what I call the commodity effect and high replacement cost). At any rate, what I wanted to convey is that there is a very REAL risk in a FSBO situation that a buyer or seller or even both can get screwed big time. Given that a descent and moderate home can easily be in the $300-$500K price range these days it is usually the single largest investment for most average people. As such it is something not to play around with or put at risk. Being close to this industry I have heard horror stories of FSBOs getting into all kind of trouble with buyers AND seller who put down multiple contracts then try to squeeze the other party by suddenly threatening to pull out at the last minute and forcing them to change price after they committed movers or put down money on replacement homes etc. There are a lot of con artists out there and just plain dreamers who are clueless about if they can qualify for a loan or people who will just "walk away" from a contract and say "sue me if you don't like it - by the time it comes to court you will me out thousands and I'll be out of state". Then there are just "idiots" who do not have the wherewithal to make the deal happen and never get the paperwork properly completed. You would also be surprised at the number of liability and false representation law suits that happen when someone misunderstands or gets crosswires on an expectation over some small thing (like the old owners taking emotional/sentimental fixtures out of the house before the sale closes). There are also many buyer and seller remorse horror stories. Experienced Realtors (I push REMAX agents since these are self made and the most senior and well seasoned independents) are experts at "holding hands" with both buyers and sellers and moderating conflicts and taking the anxiety and emotion out of the deal. Though I am certain some would argue the opposite with bad agent experiences. The other thing advantageous with an agent is they usually know how to defuse or preempt a hostile situation and most will jump in the middle to become "the bad guy" to preserve the original buyer seller relationship so they two can still make a deal and emotionally scape goat the realtor for things that go wrong. Also - in a home sale - no one owns the closing process and if there is no Realtor in the loop the process can fall flat on its face since its very very easy for someone to not get paperwork submitted on time, or a contractor did not report or repair something on time or a mortgage company was lazy about starting paperwork. Most Realtors are behind the scenes baby sitting the process and pushing it along daily to make sure all the many people involved go the right thing at the right time. If most buyers and sellers had a clue what emotion, chaos, irresponsibility, laziness, and incompetence goes on behind the scenes to get a home sold and closed with no hiccups they would NEVER go it alone without a Realtor. Of course you need to find a good Realtor and be able to trust them to have your 100% best interests and then you MUST trust them to fight for you. And believe me some of us fight tooth and nail to save our clients every $100 we can or get top dollar etc.. If people appreciated what was going on they would pay Realtors up front a $1000 just to handle the emotional drain we go through to defend our clients and to keep deals from being busted.

There are real sharks out there and if you are not careful you WILL get screwed without an expert helping you. I could tell so many horror stories...

The net $4K difference in your example might not seem a lot but if you had your movers packing your furniture and moving to your new home a few days before closing and the deal fell through because of a weasel clause in the contract it would cost you many tens of thousands of dollars additional to recover and maybe even the stress destroys your marriage too. This is also a frequent thing in home buying/selling - it can be ULTRA high stress if one does not have the confidence and the wherewithal to pull it off properly.

Just wanted to give another perspective.

Regards
TS
 
Quote from GATrader:

We are relocating from NJ to Ct w/in 3 months. I put my house up for sale by owner at a price of $565K. In 1 day someone bid 530 for it with a quick close since they sold their house already. After 2 emails, we are up to 540 bid. I don't mind selling it to them in the 550's since my own analysis coupled with tax records, zillow.com, electronicappraiser.com have my house around 550-560k.

My only concern is once I sell it, housing in the northeast will resume its roaring trend up screwing up my plans to buy a house. All I've been hearing about is that housing is going to fall off a cliff. My suspicion is that most of these "bloggers"are like traders who talk up their position. i.e. renters who want to get in and at this point...can't.

Frankly I don't care if my house sells for 300k as long as I can buy a house in CT (80 miles north) for the same.

Can anyone envision a scenario in the next 1.5 years when housing stops its downtrend and reverses sharply up? Thanks
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Everyone was talking doom and gloom in London a year ago, now people are running around trying to buy since prices started moving higher again.. NYC is starting to look like that also..

As for Florida, prices keep falling but inventories of brand new homes in good locations are going down quickly. New projects are getting cancelled all over. Its the old stuff that is hoping for a sucker buyer thats adding to overall inventories, but it wont sell since one can not get insurance on it or has to pay incredibly high amount.

Miami condos are another story, there are simply no buyers for this stuff.
 
anecdotal for sure but the best properties are getting picked off in this former bubble market.

In Lakewood Ranch (Bradenton) the buyers have done some work the last few months picking off the nice lots with nice houses. In fact in the small subdivision I live in there is only one or two nice properties left. And one of em is way over priced. The other across the pond from me is getting lookers very frequently.

Waterfront properties in Sarasota sold in my friends office two weeks ago. 2 five mill and one 12 mill. The 12 mill had been 17.

many of the people I speak with are sensing the buying starting again. Perhaps interest rates and an up market make people fell good again.

I am not saying that the inventory wont last. But the sweet deals may become harder to find. Especially in light of the fact there has been a pretty swift decline in the price per sq foot for all but the perfect homes.
 
Quote from Copernicus:

Everyone was talking doom and gloom in London a year ago, now people are running around trying to buy since prices started moving higher again.. NYC is starting to look like that also..

As for Florida, prices keep falling but inventories of brand new homes in good locations are going down quickly. New projects are getting cancelled all over. Its the old stuff that is hoping for a sucker buyer thats adding to overall inventories, but it wont sell since one can not get insurance on it or has to pay incredibly high amount.

Miami condos are another story, there are simply no buyers for this stuff.
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don't know what your talking about but everywhere i look in florida inventories are holding steady after soaring the first half the yr....not to mention oct-jan are the slow months
 
Quote from Copernicus:

Everyone was talking doom and gloom in London a year ago, now people are running around trying to buy since prices started moving higher again.. NYC is starting to look like that also..

As for Florida, prices keep falling but inventories of brand new homes in good locations are going down quickly. New projects are getting cancelled all over. Its the old stuff that is hoping for a sucker buyer thats adding to overall inventories, but it wont sell since one can not get insurance on it or has to pay incredibly high amount.

Miami condos are another story, there are simply no buyers for this stuff.
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Hey Copernicus - good info. I think the worm has turned for single family real estate. Up a bit further north from you in east central FL we are getting a pretty good demand for middle class homes - basic ranch home with a yard maybe a pool near good schools. Anything in the $200K range is selling fine but the upper tier gated communities and newer high end homes are way slow. The problem seems to be at the jumbo loan level of mortgage. Hurricane/wind insurance and new tax basis for resold homes is pricing many people out though. The state must do something soon to get Insurance Company's with recent record profits to ease premiums (200-300% increase in some cases) or the demographic trend to move here will reverse. Another interesting thing I am seeing is that the large economy of scale national home builders are offering huge commissions/incentives and selling at very small margins or maybe even slight losses to draw down inventory. This is working but is hammering the older resale home market. Buyers appear to prefer a new home with full warranty (and small dinky yards on near zero lot lines) rather than an older home with huge yards in older neighborhoods. Of course the newer homes are up to latest wind/hurricane codes too.

The condo developers are cancelling projects left and right and its pretty entertaining to see some of the most greedy ones that are committed to projects already started basing the business case on prices $150-$200K above for the exact same floor plan model they sold a year or two ago. Now they are competing with their very own older projects with realtors and investors who are selling at retail with enough equity to way under price them. Its a wonderful justice. But condo sails are super slow right now and buyers are bottom feeding on prices. This is an excellent time for buyers to pick up at original pre-construction prices because some sellers are desperate and strung out and selling at cost and some lower.

My speciality is in high end waterfront condos. Our sales compared to last year are way off - 85%. We currently have about 7 months of excess inventory. Compared to the south FL market comparable units here are probably about $250-$400K less for high quality waterfront lifestyle.

TS
 
Quote from otcstockfund:

don't know what your talking about but everywhere i look in florida inventories are holding steady after soaring the first half the yr....not to mention oct-jan are the slow months
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central fl

inventory as of end of sept

<img src="http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/4448/picture5zq5.jpg">

avg price as of end of sept

<img src="http://img396.imageshack.us/img396/2727/picture4ed1.jpg">
 
I'm noticing the same thing in Lauderdale, Jem. The market has certainly drifted lower off it's highs but everytime I see a home for sale at what seems like value, sure enough the house sells.

Obviously to you, having come here from San Diego, Florida seems cheap. Even to me as a Chicagoan it seems prices are only the same as up there. SoFla doesn't even trade at Boston or D.C. prices let alone New York levels. Hardly a "bubble."
Quote from jem:

anecdotal for sure but the best properties are getting picked off in this former bubble market.

In Lakewood Ranch (Bradenton) the buyers have done some work the last few months picking off the nice lots with nice houses. In fact in the small subdivision I live in there is only one or two nice properties left. And one of em is way over priced. The other across the pond from me is getting lookers very frequently.

Waterfront properties in Sarasota sold in my friends office two weeks ago. 2 five mill and one 12 mill. The 12 mill had been 17.

many of the people I speak with are sensing the buying starting again. Perhaps interest rates and an up market make people fell good again.

I am not saying that the inventory wont last. But the sweet deals may become harder to find. Especially in light of the fact there has been a pretty swift decline in the price per sq foot for all but the perfect homes.
More...
 
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