Housing Rolling Along 2

Quote from Jayford:

maybe in your home markets. its just starting in Cal. Inventory levels are getting way out of hand
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From my experience in Florida where inventories on the surface are sky high also, the headline numers are really deceiving.

Every ghetto house has a 4 sale sign, people that normally wouldnt even think of selling are putting houses for sale because prices are just ridiculous . Bottom line they dont expect and dont have to sell, but if they catch a sucker they will.

New construction came to a complete stop. The lastest trend in FL (palm beach county)is buy new only because of better protection against hurricanes. Inventories of these properties have actually been declining rather quickly and prices havent really come down, but you are getting extra perks/upgrades, so i guess figure they went down 10%. There are zero speculators left, so people buying these properties arent going to sell anytime soon and therefore prices arent going to plummet, you might have ocassional distress seller taking a hit to sell quickly but on the surface new properties in good locations arent going to loose much value once they are sold out, and thats happening rather quickly.

New developments in and around of ghettos, Old single family homes and Miami Condos are another story, they are in for big falls as there is no demand and very big supply.
 
Quote from RedDuke:

Jayford,

Fully agree. When people with 200K plus income can not afford a house on 30 year fixed, in regular (not exclusive) area. Something gotta give.

redduke
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it seems Cali is way out there if thats the case, Florida isnt nearly as bad.
 
fwiw-

Despite the gloom and doom in some places, where I live is in a mini boom (TX).

Prime ranch land is going up about a percent a month and much more for "jewels". Those are seeing 25+% year over year increases. Obviously flipping has begun for these properties.

Some markets are seeing good increases in home sales. San Antonio is seeing better sales each month this year than last. Prices are also rising.

Same story for Houston.

Both San Antonio and Houston have fewer houses for sale than last year.

Hill Country prices are rising fast.

DS
 
Quote from dougcs:

fwiw-

Despite the gloom and doom in some places, where I live is in a mini boom (TX).

Prime ranch land is going up about a percent a month and much more for "jewels". Those are seeing 25+% year over year increases. Obviously flipping has begun for these properties.

Some markets are seeing good increases in home sales. San Antonio is seeing better sales each month this year than last. Prices are also rising.

Same story for Houston.

Both San Antonio and Houston have fewer houses for sale than last year.

Hill Country prices are rising fast.

DS
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a buddy of mine that has a little $1M+ home here in s.d. county is looking at texas - i think its the hill country - lots of ranches and ranchettes. he;s a horse guy and loves to ride. stuff there looks ridiculously cheap by comparison.
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

a buddy of mine that has a little $1M+ home here in s.d. county is looking at texas - i think its the hill country - lots of ranches and ranchettes. he;s a horse guy and loves to ride. stuff there looks ridiculously cheap by comparison.
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Not surprising, we are seeing quite a few folks from Ca. cashing in and buying "cheap" land and houses in TX.

Ranch land varies $1000-12000 per acre plus improvements. Development houses can be had for under $100/sf; custom homes are going for 100-200/sf typically.

West Texas ranches are going for under $500/acre but you need a lot of land, typically 1000+ acres.

The avg price in San Antonio is around $170000.

DS
 
Quote from Copernicus:

From my experience in Florida where inventories on the surface are sky high also, the headline numers are really deceiving.

Every ghetto house has a 4 sale sign, people that normally wouldnt even think of selling are putting houses for sale because prices are just ridiculous . Bottom line they dont expect and dont have to sell, but if they catch a sucker they will.

New construction came to a complete stop. The lastest trend in FL (palm beach county)is buy new only because of better protection against hurricanes. Inventories of these properties have actually been declining rather quickly and prices havent really come down, but you are getting extra perks/upgrades, so i guess figure they went down 10%. There are zero speculators left, so people buying these properties arent going to sell anytime soon and therefore prices arent going to plummet, you might have ocassional distress seller taking a hit to sell quickly but on the surface new properties in good locations arent going to loose much value once they are sold out, and thats happening rather quickly.

New developments in and around of ghettos, Old single family homes and Miami Condos are another story, they are in for big falls as there is no demand and very big supply.
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My experience in Ft. Lauderdale mirrors yours in PBC. I live in an oceanfront enclave of 180 homes. Prices range from 700k for a teardown on A1A to just under 5m for an ocean front. Pumped indeed. However there's less than a dozen homes for sale with no new listings in the past several months. In fact anywhere east of the ICW from here to Boca there's a fairly limited supply of homes for sale. The houses that are on the market have reduced on average 20%. IMO they'll need to come in a bit more. However 30% off from the highball stratatospheric prices of last year is still triple what these places were going for in the mid-90's. No different than the S&P, eh?

In this day and age a million for a nice home in a great neighborhood or even 600k for a solid home in a solid neighborhood is not outlandish. What's the out of pocket cost on a 600k mortgage? $4,000 per month? Not exactly money that only Gates can throw around.

I know it's hard for the average 22yo on ET to envision such but to professionals in their 40's and 50's who are often married to ex-professionals, both of whom may have sold their own "starter" homes for a tidy profit and both of whom may have already hit the mini-lotto by selling a deceased parent or grandparent's home, not to mention the produced wealth of the S&P500 at 1330, there's not much speculation behind MOST homeowners. And while I agree that in most the country valuations are stretched, particularly p/e's (rents vs. resale prices) to use the word "bubble" is laughable. Hell, in 90% of the U.S., homes haven't even kept up with equities since 1982.
 
Quote from Pabst:

My experience in Ft. Lauderdale mirrors yours in PBC. I live in an oceanfront enclave of 180 homes. Prices range from 700k for a teardown on A1A to just under 5m for an ocean front. Pumped indeed. However there's less than a dozen homes for sale with no new listings in the past several months. In fact anywhere east of the ICW from here to Boca there's a fairly limited supply of homes for sale. The houses that are on the market have reduced on average 20%. IMO they'll need to come in a bit more. However 30% off from the highball stratatospheric prices of last year is still triple what these places were going for in the mid-90's. No different than the S&P, eh?

In this day and age a million for a nice home in a great neighborhood or even 600k for a solid home in a solid neighborhood is not outlandish. What's the out of pocket cost on a 600k mortgage? $4,000 per month? Not exactly money that only Gates can throw around.

I know it's hard for the average 22yo on ET to envision such but to professionals in their 40's and 50's who are often married to ex-professionals, both of whom may have sold their own "starter" homes for a tidy profit and both of whom may have already hit the mini-lotto by selling a deceased parent or grandparent's home, not to mention the produced wealth of the S&P500 at 1330, there's not much speculation behind MOST homeowners. And while I agree that in most the country valuations are stretched, particularly p/e's (rents vs. resale prices) to use the word "bubble" is laughable. Hell, in 90% of the U.S., homes haven't even kept up with equities since 1982.
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I agree with you re. those of us approaching gheezerhood-I thought you were writing about me.

It is indeed scary for someone just starting out. But, the newly minted graduates can usually find something within their means. THat usually is in the 'burbs or a fixer upper or something very small.

I have a condo on the ICW in Delray and am seeing prices maybe 10% below last year. Some reports from a RE agent in my building indicate there are a lot more "lookers" stopping by and asking to see properties.

Seems the scare from last year's hurricanes is wearing off a little, even though there are still a lot of "FEMA blue roofs" around.

Certainly, this is not a rush of buyers but a start IMO back to a more normal market. There are still a lot of "boomers" in NY, NJ, PA, etc. wanting to cash in on the big gains they have seen and move to sunny S. Florida.

I've had a few of those "boomers" tell me that they are sitting on houses worth $600K+ and want to buy a condo for half that leavng themselves with a tidy amount of cash to use for boats, cars, vacations, etc.

DS
 
Cal is most definitely in a "bubble".

My county, Santa Clara:

Current median home price = $861,000
median income around $80,000

That's 10x income. Three fold historic ratios.

That is a bubble.
 
Quote from Jayford:

Cal is most definitely in a "bubble".

My county, Santa Clara:

Current median home price = $861,000
median income around $80,000

That's 10x income. Three fold historic ratios.

That is a bubble.
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cali has always been a bubble. one more reason it should drift away into the ocean..... :)
 
Quote from dougcs:

I agree with you re. those of us approaching gheezerhood-I thought you were writing about me.

It is indeed scary for someone just starting out. But, the newly minted graduates can usually find something within their means. THat usually is in the 'burbs or a fixer upper or something very small.

I have a condo on the ICW in Delray and am seeing prices maybe 10% below last year. Some reports from a RE agent in my building indicate there are a lot more "lookers" stopping by and asking to see properties.

Seems the scare from last year's hurricanes is wearing off a little, even though there are still a lot of "FEMA blue roofs" around.

Certainly, this is not a rush of buyers but a start IMO back to a more normal market. There are still a lot of "boomers" in NY, NJ, PA, etc. wanting to cash in on the big gains they have seen and move to sunny S. Florida.

I've had a few of those "boomers" tell me that they are sitting on houses worth $600K+ and want to buy a condo for half that leavng themselves with a tidy amount of cash to use for boats, cars, vacations, etc.

DS
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Is your place close to PELICAN HARBOR? I went up there a few weeks back and saw some homes in the 700k range that were an outstanding value. I really dig Delray!
 
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