House of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

[niko]

Db, do you have any comments regarding the opening range price action on the days where the premarket shows giant hinges like today. My observations so far show that the first 30 minutes of these kind of days are ussually pretty crappy, but that is not something I have collected stats on, perhaps you have that nailed by now.

Thanks.

 

[k p]

Great question Niko!

I bet he will say that if it looks crappy, then stay away! Wait till the traders pick an exit from the area, and buy or sell into that direction on the first retracement. I noticed today that even though we dropped below that wide overnight hinge, there was no RET entry. Price came all the way back up very quickly after dropping below the lower hinge line/DL, and back inside. Likewise, when we exited out the top, there really wasn't a good RET entry and price came back into that range/hinge.

But I'm eager to see what Db has to say of course.

 

[dbphoenix]

Db, do you have any comments regarding the opening range price action on the days where the premarket shows giant hinges like today. My observations so far show that the first 30 minutes of these kind of days are ussually pretty crappy, but that is not something I have collected stats on, perhaps you have that nailed by now.

Thanks.

There was only one trade according to the SLA/AMT: the short when price dropped out of the hinge at the open and rallied to the mean. After that, nothing.

 

[eminiman414]

Since we are asking questions how often does history repeat itself? I haven't looked fully into this but last December we were generally at a similar location and so far have had somewhat similar results this year. The first week of December last year we had a dl break followed by a bit of a move down back within the TC, then some consolidation followed by a breakout towards the high. There are some differences but could one expect another attempt at the high before traveling back to the mean like last December? Or am I nuts lol.

 

[MadeMan]

Since we are asking questions how often does history repeat itself? I haven't looked fully into this but last December we were generally at a similar location and so far have had somewhat similar results this year. The first week of December last year we had a dl break followed by a bit of a move down back within the TC, then some consolidation followed by a breakout towards the high. There are some differences but could one expect another attempt at the high before traveling back to the mean like last December? Or am I nuts lol.

well , only price/market will tell... listen /watch carefully .. ,)

yea .. "history" does repeat itself... how does one come up with a methology which is profitable.. if it doesent... ???? (but not in the way you initially questioned)

in your case its a lil too much crystallballin... but if you weed out that couldawoulda.... and watch the market.. you "could" make some money or not .. funny init

 

[eminiman414]

well , only price/market will tell... listen /watch carefully .. ,)

yea .. "history" does repeat itself... how does one come up with a methology which is profitable.. if it doesent... ???? (but not in the way you initially questioned)

in your case its a lil too much crystallballin... but if you weed out that couldawoulda.... and watch the market.. you "could" make some money or not .. funny init

I agree. Was asking more from an observational/discussion standpoint. Of course anything can happen.

 

[MadeMan]

I agree. Was asking more from an observational/discussion standpoint. Of course anything can happen.

yea ,, and thats .. how indecisions happen.. even.. in the actuall market..

this channel.. somehow , doesent fit into place.. as its somewhat drawn in the middle.. but still has its purpose/merrit.. well maybe not to you.. but to some.. and or the market it has... now the question is.. can you find a place .. where its actually.. a decision you make.. risk/ and what not wise.. to take action either way ????..


H1 nas...

we are actually in a an "indecision" situation.. if you look

we "broke" out the channel .. (which we all know.. is nothing more then a diagonal range)

reacted at the "mean" (strong) and know sit on the former broken "resistance" + 50% retr. of the whole down swing... hmm??? a rejection of that level.. would be considered "weak"...

well .. a lower high at this level.. could one use to take a short.ö. and play the "weakness".. nice RR

at least to test the mean again?

a type of springboard situation* for example at this level.. could OTOH lead to a long scenario to test the Highs again..



the question is.. do you have a plan to play both scenarios ???

without going broke whle doing so.. ??

 

[k p]

There was only one trade according to the SLA/AMT: the short when price dropped out of the hinge at the open and rallied to the mean. After that, nothing.

Could someone post a chart with this trade? I'm having trouble seeing where the short sets up. Attached is my zoomed out view to replicate the lines as Db has drawn them on the hourly chart. But then when I zoom in down to the 1 minute, I just don't see the short setting up, and I see that Db's DL cuts through more of the action though. Where I place my "??" is about the only logical RET that I see, but this happens essentially at the break of the DL, and far to close to the action on the left, hence we haven't really broken out of anything just yet. Once price drops, there just isn't a RET before it comes back up. Thanks!

 

[k p]

Whooopppsss.. I see my problem.. the DL/hinge bottom line connects a bit differently. So the short can be placed right below the opening bar.

 

[Gringo]

I am looking at EOD and it's RET at the moment.