House of If You Can Draw A Straight Line
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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I'm very much following your thread, but logged in just now to see what happened yesterday since I wasn't around for it live. I will make sure to be around for Monday morning though.
Given that we are at the top of the trend channel, there should be some pretty good opportunity. Do you think that given the break above the trend channel a month ago to get to 4347 will at least make this another target to go a bit higher from here as a test of this high? This test might of course happen on Sunday or overnight and hence a downtrend might already be well underway by the time the market opens on Monday morning. The best moves really do happen outside of NY trading hours.
EDIT: And I should also add, that its so obvious to me that the best chance for the greatest gains also come from the results of looking more at the forest rather than just the trees, and having a broader view of the market with targets based on rejections of price levels that are gleaned from the hourly and daily charts rather than just the 1 minute or 5 minute charts. When you see price moving against you on a 1 minute chart and zoom out to see the hourly/daily trend, its amazing to realize that this is usually nothing to be worried about until/unless a major swing point is breached.
I will forever love your one quote Db about how a trader has to figure out if he wants to trade or make money, with the implication being that trading more does not necessarily lead to more money.
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I am just too relaxed to be trading these few days. Db was right about higher probability of market going up at the end of the year. Next year is upon us and with it even more exciting challenges.
This SLA-AMT is seriously a time saver. My life is so much colorful because I am not reading books after books to figure out the holy grail. The free time is used for other things I enjoy. Thanks Db and everyone else who has helped me turn the corner.
Gringo
This SLA-AMT is seriously a time saver. My life is so much colorful because I am not reading books after books to figure out the holy grail. The free time is used for other things I enjoy. Thanks Db and everyone else who has helped me turn the corner.
Gringo
What matters is whether YOU caught any of it or not
'trend line' crude attempt to model price, ie buy low sell high, and all variation. is good enough in 21st century HFT? you be judge.
i prefer fuzzy 'logic'/algo
my opinion, no more
i prefer fuzzy 'logic'/algo
my opinion, no more
TL is for visual cues. The idea is to see whether demand or supply is in charge or whether neither is. A line is like a crutch that helps one stay on feet. When the legs are strong enough there is no need for it.
The Law of Supply and Demand holds independent of whether one uses lines, algorithms, stars, magic, fundamentals, or insider information.
HFT might cause greater fluctuations but beyond that nothing much has changed. Price still moves the say way, either up or down. If you read the old books the same violent movements were still present there as well.
Gringo
The Law of Supply and Demand holds independent of whether one uses lines, algorithms, stars, magic, fundamentals, or insider information.
HFT might cause greater fluctuations but beyond that nothing much has changed. Price still moves the say way, either up or down. If you read the old books the same violent movements were still present there as well.
Gringo
greater fluctuations from savvy participant stop you out, up or down as you put. it DOES matter toward lower time frame.
'a butterfly flapping wing in Japan afect weather in USA? depend on scale!
This is true, but then the answer to your problem is contained within what you say... don't trade the lower time frame. I've been stopped out many times via a pre-set 5 point stop loss, only to see price quickly recover. The critical thing to watch in my opinion is what happens once price reaches a previous swing low or high that you're watching. Just because it penetrates a little and might stop you out is no reason to get out if the buying or selling isn't actually there to break through that level. I often try and think "if a trade doesn't set up in the opposite direction, then there perhaps is no reason to get out just yet"
I think Db is always trying to get us to look at the big picture and focus on the lower time frame only when price reaches an important level. Traders either want to break above a previous high or they don't, and if they don't, then a previous swing low might be a very logical target to test. Getting there might be messy, hence why the lower time frame is messy, and this is all the more reason why trading at the extremes is not only the safest, but also perhaps the most profitable.
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