Holy Grail

10-11-03 05:21 AM



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Quote from plumlazy:

*A* holy grail in a nutshell =

If a trend can be identified - enter with the trend - assume that the trend will continue until it proves otherwise - if you find yourself on the correct side of the market then sit tight until the trend breaks (there are different trends in different timeframes - play out each trade within your chosen timeframe for that particular trade).

Honor thy stops - keep losses small - keep losses small - keep losses small.

Be willing to take a walk when your experience is telling you to do so.
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If I know how to resolve the two "if"s mentioned above, there would be completely no "if" anymore.


It is nice that making money comes down to just a couple of things. Not like setting up a bridge table for momo, phoenix, nonsense, and traderkay to play.

Timing trends simply comes down to the P,V relation and making money just relaies on staying on the right side of the market my noting the "buyer" or "seller" condition of the market.

Both these matters are handled very conveniently. Volume preaks out just before price. (see the inandlong thread of the day where he is considering something after the cycle has ended). The buy point is very obvious and the channel definition is classic.

Staying on the right side of the market is an acumulation/distribution analysis excercise. A broad band of practitioners have successfully addressed this issue on the appropriate monitoring periodicities.

Than allows everyone to sit in their armchairs and look historically at the advent of the these milestones in the financial culture. The ones I like to note are: the advent of the 200 day moving average on volume in leading financial media. equally earth shaking is the advent of an A/D indicator in qcharts and along with it the "unusual".. pro rata % of daily volume as tied to the 65 day average volume.

These volume and A?D milestines show just how recently the financial industry is catching on to the essential ingredients to answer the two simple IF's sitting out there for all of us to deal with.

If the above mentioned would just play bridge, then others could get on with the money making game without the noise they create.


Drop in sometime you will enjoy seeing both the above in daily real time use. We just cut to the chase and get the job done.


__________________
Trading the odds and getting out timely, as I can be wrong but the market is always right.
 
IT'S A NUMBERS GAME....FIND THE MAGIC NUMBERS....THEY WORK 95%..OF THE TIME...THE BEST SYSTEM ALIVE IS ALL ABOUT NUMBERS.
 
Quote from murray t turtle:


===

The first '' if,'' id on a trend in a directional uptrend is easier to identify than ;
riding it to max which is harder.

Hit the books hard no matter what;
but I would really hit the books hard & quick if I had trouble identifying uptrends in a bullmarket which arent as difficult as a bear,downtrend market:cool:
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Which/What books?! :D
 
Quote from porgie:

WORKED FOR 3 YEARS.....ALL MARKETS...PERFECT SYSTEM...AND I WORKED FOR 3 YEARS TO FIND IT....
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is it a trend following system, mean reversion, market making, other?
 
Quote from Grob109:


Drop in sometime you will enjoy seeing both the above in daily real time use. We just cut to the chase and get the job done.
More...

How could you disclose the hard earned Holy Grail so easily so soon, freely publicly? :mad:

After your this disclosure, there would be no any Holy Grail anymore? :mad: :confused: :D
 
Quote from murray t turtle:


if I had trouble identifying uptrends in a bullmarket which arent as difficult as a bear,downtrend market:cool:
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I would rather think they are basically and practically having the same structure, without any difference at all except buying/selling, isn't it? :confused: :mad:

I'm starting to understand why I've never found the Holy Grail, and never will!!!!! :mad: :mad: :mad:
 
Any Holy Grail would have to be both profitable and optimal. Some people think they have found it because they are profitable. I say IT because their can only be ONE optimal way, so you are either optimal, or you are not. Said profitable people make a second mistake, and this is the whopper, that *they* have identified the optimal way. Then they make a third mistake, being that no one else could possible have the optimal solution, since they think that they do. Still others cheerfully admit they know just enough to be dangerous.

The cruel irony is, to achieve an optimal solution, you have to fully understand the problem. Anyone who is ever surprised by something in the market, can rest assured they do not have The Holy Grail. The irony is cruel because profitable traders who are not optimal are usually non-optimal for a reason - ignorance. It is this ignorance that can sometimes be their downfall.

fortunately, you do not have to play a perfect game to make a living at it. Some people limit themselves intentionally, perhaps they have non-trading responsibilities that they prefer to entertain (like their daughter's birthday party). Others like to sleep late.

I do not desire or need to play the game perfectly for the sake of playing perfectly, but the better you play the safer it is to play.

Steve.
 
"I say IT because their can only be ONE optimal way, so you are either optimal, or you are not."

Hmm.. now that is one of the most sweeping and most self damming statements I have read for years.

Breath-taking in its sweep, agressive in its arrogance, (misspelt as well:-), it's like Henry Ford's most famous saying.. "anyone colour .. black".

If the statement was true markets would not have lots of small speculators making some money 'cos they don't all trade the same "optimal" way.

What's optimal in one time frame - months - is not in weeks or years - or days - or minutes.. What's optimal in minutes for one trader who is long is not optimal for another who is long and short..or who has options or futures at different expiry dates or..etc

So I contend the writer is plain ignorantly arrogant, "stoopid" or just "having a bad day" - which we all do occasionally..
 
Quote from ssmith1961:

Any Holy Grail would have to be both profitable and optimal. Some people think they have found it because they are profitable. I say IT because their can only be ONE optimal way, so you are either optimal, or you are not. Said profitable people make a second mistake, and this is the whopper, that *they* have identified the optimal way. Then they make a third mistake, being that no one else could possible have the optimal solution, since they think that they do. Still others cheerfully admit they know just enough to be dangerous.

The cruel irony is, to achieve an optimal solution, you have to fully understand the problem. Anyone who is ever surprised by something in the market, can rest assured they do not have The Holy Grail. The irony is cruel because profitable traders who are not optimal are usually non-optimal for a reason - ignorance. It is this ignorance that can sometimes be their downfall.

fortunately, you do not have to play a perfect game to make a living at it. Some people limit themselves intentionally, perhaps they have non-trading responsibilities that they prefer to entertain (like their daughter's birthday party). Others like to sleep late.

I do not desire or need to play the game perfectly for the sake of playing perfectly, but the better you play the safer it is to play.

Steve.
More...

Markets operate in trending and non trending modes and peole trade accordingly. Depending upon the trading fractal, of which there are several concurrently, people use those totally indepentant operating points as elements of their portfolio of sets of trading contracts in these zero sum markets.

At any time, therefore a person can be running independant sets of contracts in segmented accounhts to operate on either of the two market modes.

You need to factor some of this into your thinking vis a vis optimization.

Using the ES as an example, the long term (commercial and producers strategies are found here) is long. The IT fractal has just gone from short(leg 3) to long (leg 4) (A reversal strategy is in vogue there right now). Intraday is range bound by leg 4 and daily there are the usual trends and non trends each of which requires a different set of optimized trading constructs to pull a multiple of the H/L for the day. This triple tiered portfolio always runs at optimum for traders who maintain it in the context of risk and money management.
 
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