Holy Grail

Hello VTTrader,

It appears you are not accounting for the performance of either the market or the stock's sector. People that follow the 50/30/20 rule would say you are operating with only 20% of the available data.


I suspect your possible "blow out" is a feature of not following the market or sector as closely as you are the stock. You can easily fix this by applying your same analysis to the other contributing elements. It will also simplify the number of stocks you have to look at.


You also look at your previous trades to determine if the current stock is going to perform, when a better indication might be the current stocks past behavior.


Steve.




Quote from VTTrader:

Okay, perhaps I'm missing something big here. I have the uneasy sense that I am. My system appears to be pathetically simple, and I'd really like to know if I'm being a dunce.

Here's how I trade, and I'd like to know what others think. If it's a damnfool idea, and I'm heading straight for an ice berg, please tell me so I can at least try to turn the ship (or close the watertight doors):

I look for stocks whose 50 day MA has recently crossed its 200 day to the upside, and both MAs are currently moving up. Recent closes are above the 200 MA. Daily average volume > 1 million shares. I use a daily smoothed slow stochastic to get my buy point, and sell when the price either reaches overbought territory or hits a trailing stop. I try to risk no more than 1-2% of my at-risk capital in each position, and take positions whose projected win/loss is at least 3:1.

I defined this by looking back on my own winning trades and by asking myself 'what sort of setups do you think give high-probability trades and provide a good risk-reward'?

Is this too simple? It seems to me the simplest systems are probably the most useful across a broad range of securities. This one CAN blow out, but loss is limited (I diversify my holdings across several positions at any given time).

Interestingly, this mechanical system realizes MORE profit on a daily scale than on a 60, 30, or 5 minute timeframe.

Critiques?
More...
 
...if so, t'would be in a time-honored tradition. Benjamin Franklin wrote letters-to-the-editor to his own newpaper using whimsical Swiftian pseudonyms to generate debate on important issues. In these he regularly flamed his opponents!
 
I'll say this once, and you can either believe it or disbelieve it. It's the end of this particular discussion as far as I'm concerned.

I am not Grob, and I am not Jack.

That's about as clear as I can be.

Steve.


Quote from hypostomus:

...if so, t'would be in a time-honored tradition. Benjamin Franklin wrote letters-to-the-editor to his own newpaper using whimsical Swiftian pseudonyms to generate debate on important issues. In these he regularly flamed his opponents!
More...
 
Quote from ssmith1961:

I'll say this once, and you can either believe it or disbelieve it. It's the end of this particular discussion as far as I'm concerned.

I am not Grob, and I am not Jack.

That's about as clear as I can be.

Steve.
More...

Not to worry! :D

Take it easy for just kidding! :)

Peace be with you, always! :p
 
This post is written not to disparage any one on this thread. It is simply a true story that I thought you might find interesting.

I used to communicate with a group of traders where the head guru used words that were so complex that the only way I could follow what he was saying was to use a dictionary. He said he had a phd in mathematics and had been asked to leave a university because of his poor teaching ability. No wonder!

For many years, I worked in a laboratory with several brilliant mathematicians, every day, and none of them talked this way. So it occurred to me that he might not be as sharp as he wanted to appear and that he was using the "big words" because he thought it enhanced his "image". Well I think he gave himself away.

In his emails he couldn't spell even simple words correctly but when he used these "doozies" of his, they were all spelled perfectly. So I accused him of using a thesaurus to enhance all the crap that he was pontificating. I also suggested that since he was in the business of communicating with people he should try using plain simple english for a change.

His answer to the charges wasn't forthcoming but I did get some static from another trader on the site that thought that using these "whoopdedoos" made the posts more interesting. Shortly thereafter I was kicked off the list.

Well everything turned out for the best because I found this site which is head and shoulders above anything I have ever come across in trading.

regards
Peter Daniels
 
Quote from VTTrader:

Okay, perhaps I'm missing something big here. I have the uneasy sense that I am. My system appears to be pathetically simple, and I'd really like to know if I'm being a dunce.

Here's how I trade, and I'd like to know what others think. If it's a damnfool idea, and I'm heading straight for an ice berg, please tell me so I can at least try to turn the ship (or close the watertight doors):

I look for stocks whose 50 day MA has recently crossed its 200 day to the upside, and both MAs are currently moving up. Recent closes are above the 200 MA. Daily average volume > 1 million shares. I use a daily smoothed slow stochastic to get my buy point, and sell when the price either reaches overbought territory or hits a trailing stop. I try to risk no more than 1-2% of my at-risk capital in each position, and take positions whose projected win/loss is at least 3:1.

I defined this by looking back on my own winning trades and by asking myself 'what sort of setups do you think give high-probability trades and provide a good risk-reward'?

Is this too simple? It seems to me the simplest systems are probably the most useful across a broad range of securites. This one CAN blow out, but loss is limited (I diversify my holdings across several positions at any given time).

Interestingly, this mechanical system realizes MORE profit on a daily scale than on a 60, 30, or 5 minute timeframe.

Critiques?
More...

You're leaving early even with the pre PC stoc defaults.

Several other factors too.
 
Quote from hoodooman:

I used to have a holy grail and it made 200% per month. Now I,m lucky if I have a pot to piss in. Guess I should have tithed.

hoodoo
More...

So do you remember to give tithe now? :D
 
Odd Trader

If I could make money like that again, you can bet I would tithe. I don't think it will ever happen again.

regards
hoodoo
 
Quote from hoodooman:

Odd Trader

If I could make money like that again, you can bet I would tithe. I don't think it will ever happen again.

regards
hoodoo
More...

Surely you should be able to find another Holy Grail, whether or not an optimal one. :)

Seek and you will find! :p
 
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