hmm.no edges in the markets

[Ghost of Cutten]

Quote from nitro:

90% of all retail traders lose, they just lose!

Just kidding. I have been on the prop side and on the retail side. Every prop firm I have ever been in rakes in serious cash. Every retail trader I know with a very very few exceptions struggle. If you saw what it takes to succeed, you would quit right now. This game takes money to make money. Then you need brains. Then you need to work your ass off. Then you need technical know-how. Then you need relationships. Then you need to get around silly rules, then you need to do decent volume to get good comissions,. then...It is possible to do this at home in your pajamas if you already have money, but the farther you are from being able to make markets or engage in [statistical] arbitrage, the more risk you have to take with larger sums of money. Read that last sentence 30 times. Read it again. Here is it: but the farther you are from being able to make markets or engage in [statistical] arbitrage, the more risk you have to take with larger sums of money. There is a way around it. Get a job so that you can have systems that only trade with patience, slowly putting away money to fuel a positive edge system. Otherwise, if you are not MMing or Arbitraging, the more pressure you are under to generate streams of income, the faster your money goes out the door.

One day, I am going to write a book and get it off my chest. it will be the only book in the history of books on markets of its kind. I will write it under a pseudonum. Wait, if I use my real name, no one will know it's me

Sounds sensible but do you actually follow your advice in your own trading?

 

[trilogic]

Quote from NoDoji:

I already shared my highest conviction price action strategy with you. It's up to you to study it with the instrument of your choice, compile the stats for various levels of entry (close of pullback bar, price turn off key pullback level) and styles of entry (limit or stop entry), and decide what you're most comfortable with.

This strategy is based on price action, therefore the edge cannot disappear unless the market disappears or becomes so illiquid that the spread simply costs too much to make trading worthwhile. The only adjustment required is the size of the risk:reward unit as volatility contracts and expands.

You are already a winning trader, so I assume your ongoing ET quests for the holy grail of TA are based on disatisfaction with your current consistently profitable system.

been looking for thispost- cant seem to find ? If you can point it out would like t ostudy ?

 

[Ned Stark]

Nailed it.

Quote from austinp:

100+ pages of gibberish and bullshit... no end in sight.

Trading is simple. You find market behaviors (patterns) that repeat themselves with measured, statistical probability of outcome and you methodically trade those situations while ignoring all else.

While ignoring all else, you sit, watch and wait for your defined situations (edge) to appear on the chart of your chosen symbol(s). When said edge appears, you trade it with detached emotions.

 

[AaronAllen]

lots of people could come on here and give an edge

most of you wouldn't know what to do with it and probably jump off the edge lol

then there is a whole bunch of other people that wouldn't even believe if it hit them across the head over and over again.

you won't appreciate an edge until you had to work for it

take nodoji for example she gives out what works for her but the poor guy shes giving it to is too poor in his own mind. if it started to work for him he'd have to sabotage himself in order to be aligned with his beliefs about himself regarding failure

on the other end then take austinp he says its easy but then in his next few posts he goes on to say if nodoji knows any successful traders it must be rare and only 1%. not so easy after all if only 1%. yea i know what he means its easy to run fast when you've been doing it for a while, but when you can't even get off the ground it's pretty hard to do a light jog let alone a full sprint

good thing jnbagger came in to shed some light over marketsurfers delusions and then good thing austinp stepped up showing some examples with education to lay at least some foundation for others to build their own thing.

there are lots of different "edges" however you want to define edge bottom line i'm talking about here is making money

to the person trying to find an "edge" I say find your own way. problem is many of you are too lazy to do anything for yourself. you want everything given to you.

take a scenario and instead of expecting it to work under all circumstances find out when it doesn't work . i see people backtesting ideas for 4 months. 4 months is shit. it's barely about the time to shift to a different type of cycle. people don't want to know the weakness in their trading instead they'd rather go around bragging about how their "system hit 20% in 4 months" until they are left speechless because they refused to understand the weakness

who wants to give out an edge in elitetrader. i once came out here started a thread to see if I could get a group going to make some money shorting gold. then some dumbass comes on saying gold was going up forever. his dumbass second guessed the entire thread. i put the thread to a rest and decided it wasn't worth my time. one good comment came from Bone. he suggested using spreads. opened up a new world to me. special thanks there to bone

getting back on topic if there is one. who wants to give an edge? why? there's not a good audience for it

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from wrbtrader:

You're a profitable trader and you spend a lot of time here at ET trying to learn or understand the trade methods of others including you starting threads like this one @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=267968

In contrast, your trade journals show you as swing trader or long term trader. Yet, you've recently been asking a lot of questions about methods by those that are primary day traders or scalpers.

The way I trade is related to the fact that I cannot predict market direction. Depending on what the market does, I will make nothing, make a little, or make a lot, and the timeframe may be short or long.

I am looking for a method that allows me to correctly identify market direction and profit more.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from AaronAllen:

lots of people could come on here and give an edge

most of you wouldn't know what to do with it and probably jump off the edge lol

then there is a whole bunch of other people that wouldn't even believe if it hit them across the head over and over again.

you won't appreciate an edge until you had to work for it

take nodoji for example she gives out what works for her but the poor guy shes giving it to is too poor in his own mind. if it started to work for him he'd have to sabotage himself in order to be aligned with his beliefs about himself regarding failure

on the other end then take austinp he says its easy but then in his next few posts he goes on to say if nodoji knows any successful traders it must be rare and only 1%. not so easy after all if only 1%. yea i know what he means its easy to run fast when you've been doing it for a while, but when you can't even get off the ground it's pretty hard to do a light jog let alone a full sprint

good thing jnbagger came in to shed some light over marketsurfers delusions and then good thing austinp stepped up showing some examples with education to lay at least some foundation for others to build their own thing.

there are lots of different "edges" however you want to define edge bottom line i'm talking about here is making money

to the person trying to find an "edge" I say find your own way. problem is many of you are too lazy to do anything for yourself. you want everything given to you.

take a scenario and instead of expecting it to work under all circumstances find out when it doesn't work . i see people backtesting ideas for 4 months. 4 months is shit. it's barely about the time to shift to a different type of cycle. people don't want to know the weakness in their trading instead they'd rather go around bragging about how their "system hit 20% in 4 months" until they are left speechless because they refused to understand the weakness

who wants to give out an edge in elitetrader. i once came out here started a thread to see if I could get a group going to make some money shorting gold. then some dumbass comes on saying gold was going up forever. his dumbass second guessed the entire thread. i put the thread to a rest and decided it wasn't worth my time. one good comment came from Bone. he suggested using spreads. opened up a new world to me. special thanks there to bone

getting back on topic if there is one. who wants to give an edge? why? there's not a good audience for it

This is the kind of nonsense you read about in trading psychology books.

"I WOULD GIVE U AN EDGE BUT..."

Demonstrate a quantifiable, profitable system and you will have an endless supply of students.

Most traders have not even gotten to the point where they have a profitable system in the first place. Just because some "guru" says something is profitable doesn't mean it is, and when it doesn't work it doesn't mean it's the student's fault.

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

The way I trade is related to the fact that I cannot predict market direction. Depending on what the market does, I will make nothing, make a little, or make a lot, and the timeframe may be short or long.

I am looking for a method that allows me to correctly identify market direction and profit more.

Ok.

Yet, your profits are via long term trading based upon the information you posted in your trade journals. Therefore, why not concentrate on discussions with "long term traders" or "swing traders" to help you with identifying market direction in comparison to having such discussions with day traders or scalpers.

Regardless, you're a profitable trader regardless to your inability to predict market direction...you're obvious doing such to be a profitable long term trader.

By the way, I do remember you saying a few times in different threads that one of your edges is "position size management". Congrats on that because its an area of trading most traders underestimate.

Anyways, it would seem like your looking for a automated or mechanical method even though most of those day traders and scalpers you've been trying to learn about price action trading are discretionary traders. I think that conflict of what you want versus those you talk too has been a thorn in the butt for you.

 

[marketsurfer]

WRB--

From that post it appears that you claim the ability to predict short term market movements? Please spare us from long pontifications and get to the point. Thank you

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

WRB--

From that post it appears that you claim the ability to predict short term market movements? Please spare us from long pontifications and get to the point. Thank you

You have poor English comprehension skills.

*****
I've been very clear in that I'm asking him questions about why he's talking to day traders and scalpers when he's already a profitable trader via long term trading. In addition, I've been very clear that there are other edges besides a trade method. To make that point stronger, I complimented him about his edge involving "position size management".
*****

If the above implies that I have the ability to predict short term market movements, I really don't know how to spell it out in a different way so that someone like you can understand nor do I care if you understand the above commentary.

You drunk this morning ?

If it ain't broke, don't fix it

 

[IronFist]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:


Demonstrate a quantifiable, profitable system and you will have an endless supply of students.

Totally agree.

I have been involved with martial arts for much of my life. There are a lot of "gurus" in the martial arts world, too. For example, there are people who claim to have the ability to knock people out without touching them, to move objects without touching them, to extinguish a candle flame with a punch from 5 feet away behind a piece of glass, etc.

All of these people will only demonstrate their skills in their own conditions and usually only on their own brainwashed students.

Amazingly, when they try them on outside people, news reporters, and other martial artists, they don't work.

Yet there are people who pay these scammers to learn their secret skills.

If someone could *actually* knock someone out without touching them, I mean in real conditions, they would become the most sought after teacher in the world. People would travel from all over to learn. Professional fighters would hire them to learn their style. James Randi would pay them $1,000,000 for successfully demonstrating the ability under controlled conditions.

Of course, none of these guys ever seem to demonstrate their abilities under controlled conditions. The few that have tried have obviously failed. There are a few vids of this on YouTube.

And of course, they always have excuses for why they didn't work.

It's kind of like how trading "gurus" always have excuses for why their systems aren't profitable, why they won't make real time calls, or why they won't give precise answers.

There are always suckers willing to learn without proof. This is who both the fake martial arts masters and trading "gurus" profit from.

The onus of proof is on the person making the claim.

After the fact charts are not proof.

Vague answers are not proof.

"Knocking out" your own receptive student without touching him is not proof.

If someone were to demonstrate proof, they would have more students than they knew what to do with.

Of course, another excuse the "masters" give is that they don't want the fame so that's why they don't demonstrate their skills publicly. Lol.