hmm.no edges in the markets

[cornix]

Just read NoD's long post with attention... I agree with Sellindexvol... you're giving away too much!

But it's so nice you see exactly what I saw there too... oops, did I just say TA can be objective?

 

[gmst]

Quote from bighog:

Speaking of having a so-called edge, it just might be something like this: Once filled, the profit objective is meaningless, your worries about making a sweet entry are now also meaningless, your timing for the entry is now also meaningless because the deed is done, the only worry is how to manage the trade.......NOTHING ELSE MATTERS NOW.

Once filled your focus is most intense during the first few ticks and or couple minutes depending on price action. Notice I said price "ACTION" and not price level alone. It is a cake-walk sitting still and simply watching price go to target or tag the max stop. How boring is that? In that case there should be NO worries because you pre-choose your targets to profit or lunch time. No sweat there bunky!

Trading futures can get very boring real fast, there must be something besides just money to keep you motivated for approx. 4 to 8 hours day-in-day-out. What better challenge can there be than sitting there and watching the action of your trade and making snap decisions about the trade itself: this is a dud, I like this puppy, ahh crap it is not acting right best to lunch it NOW, etc, etc. Those and many more are what motivates good traders, the DECISIONS made after the trade is filled, that's what floats our boats.

Strongly disagree. More boring you can make trading futures, the better success would you achieve. Richard Dennins made 100 millions in 80s because he had a boring system and he didn't had to analyse markets bar by bar or tick by tick after getting filled.

Consider a manufacturing plant - it has processes. The more you can make your futures or stocks trading like a manufacturing plant, the higher success will you get.

 

[gmst]

Quote from wrbtrader:

It wasn't a website story. It was a documentary about gambling on TV I stumble upon a few years back on one of the life channels. The guy I mentioned was only 5mins of the 1 hour documentary. The documentary was about "careers in gambling" and its impact on surrounding communities.

It really sounds incredible. He was basically betting day after day, week after week, month after month on a negative edge. Over a large number of bets, by simple probability he ought to lose.

Do you remember any specifics he talked about which allowed him to select his bets? What game was he playing - counting cards (blackjack) or something else.

 

[koolaid]

Quote from Redneck:

This is fallacy




This is exactly what must be done


RN

wow you must be the authority on PA...I mean if you say it's a fallacy...then it must be so. I read NoDoJi's post and there is so much discretion in there that no two traders will take the same trade

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from cornix:

Right, fundamentals are not used for any actual trading decisions, because fundamentals are too broad factors for day trading. I fully understand how Soros trades with mainly fundamentals, but his time scale is much higher.

I don't have a link to it but I saw in a chat room recently where someone referenced a study done on CL. The results were that 70% of intraday price moves could not be explained with fundamentals.

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from Lucrum:

I don't have a link to it but I saw in a chat room recently where someone referenced a study done on CL. The results were that 70% of intraday price moves could not be explained with fundamentals.

Maybe they meant CL can't be explained with fundamentals all by itself without other inputs for intraday traders. Then again, I've seen too many traders with different definitions of what they consider to be fundamentals and too many different definitions of what they consider to be "price moves".

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from gmst:

It really sounds incredible. He was basically betting day after day, week after week, month after month on a negative edge. Over a large number of bets, by simple probability he ought to lose.

Do you remember any specifics he talked about which allowed him to select his bets? What game was he playing - counting cards (blackjack) or something else.

Not really, I was more interested in the tax side of the story instead of his favorite games. I do remember it was not in Vegas. Yeah, he was at it about 5 days per week with regular gambling schedule.

 

[Redneck]

Quote from koolaid:

wow you must be the authority on PA...I mean if you say it's a fallacy...then it must be so. I read NoDoJi's post and there is so much discretion in there that no two traders will take the same trade

You'll figure it out someday - possibly

RN

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from Lucrum:

I don't have a link to it but I saw in a chat room recently where someone referenced a study done on CL. The results were that 70% of intraday price moves could not be explained with fundamentals.

I would bet this is true for all asset classes.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Redneck:

This is fallacy




This is exactly what must be done


RN

Ask yourself, can what she says be coded? If not --its discretionary. My opinion is its discretionary.
surf