here is proof that it can be done

[Ripley]

Quote from Dustin:

Ego and stubbornness seem to be a problem here. For example instead of realizing the reality that futures trading is considerably harder than stock trading you say that futures traders just make such big $ that they wouldn't post on the P&L thread.

There's another clue here that you are probably trading for big $ like these mystery traders you speak of...and possibly skipped the consistent $100-500 daily goals.

lol.. I was joking about the huge $ part. I thought you would get it.

Well, the reason why most people who post on the P/L thread are stock traders because THERE ARE MORE STOCKS TO TRADE in the markets. There are 5,000 some tradeable stocks while tradeable futures markets can be counted on your fingers. Most commodity futures are non day tradeable unless you're in the pits. The only tradeable ones are mostly the financial ones. And considering, most n00b traders get started in stocks, there is only a handful of inexperienced traders that would choose to trade futures.

Thus, those are two reasons why there wouldn't be many postings on the P/L thread by futures traders.

 

[andread]

Quote from TheCaracal:

I agree, to a an extent, but his need to be right, exceeded that of making money.

David, please, can you make one or two examples? Whether you need to be right or not, when you see you are losing you stop, I guess.
Was the need to be right bringing this guy to hold his position even while losing? Was he trading against the trend? Was he putting too much money in each trade because he had to be right?

 

[Hydroblunt]

Quote from Ripley:

It took me 3 years of HARD WORK, and every day of trading to still be in the dark. I mean, I really cannot see anyone else making it considering I am bright, intelligent, smart, extremely hardworking etc etc and graduated from one of the finest universities etc, and have read a lot of books in that time span.

I believe for pretty much everyone, to learn to trade without without a mentor would be IMPOSSIBLE (considering no sane profitable mentor would waste their time, the only way to do it is by yourself).

You seem to be a little slow, but there is a search function through people can tell how full of it you really are. Also, it makes it very obvious why you can't do it.

 

[illiquid]

The need to be right is basically the biggest strike against the "intelligent" trader. Those who consider themselves intelligent and well-read most likely got that way through years of reinforcement via schooling, teachers, parents etc; the more you were right, the more praise you received, the more you wanted to learn in order to continue that cycle etc.

The markets just don't work that way -- what works in the markets doesn't really have anything to do with being right. If you can't change your mind as fast if not faster than the markets, and throw out all notions of "right" and "wrong", you will never go beyond a certain level.

edit: (and here's my pet peeve) almost everyone who struggles around here thinks that once he achieves profitability, he will have "succeeded", as if he's "graduated" and his education in the markets is over. Nothing can be further from the truth. You can make seven-figures one year and go broke again the next -- believe it. However hard you think trading is now in whatever stocks or markets you are staring at day after day, it's probably around 10X harder to achieve long-run profitability over the course of your lifetime.

 

[2manywhiners]

Quote from illiquid:

If you can't change your mind as fast if not faster than the markets, and throw out all notions of "right" and "wrong", you will never go beyond a certain level.

Well said.

As far as Ripley's other posts go...

Quote from del_trade:

How long is long enough time to hang on to a stock that is falling in value?
Do you ride it and hope for it to turn around and rise, or do you cut losses when it's reached a point of no return?
<<Post your rule of thumb or golden rule to go by when determining-when to cut a loss>>

Quote from Ripley:

You pick up more at a cheaper price. Thus, when the prices go back up again, you PROFIT x 2 ...

I hope you weren't purposely steering a n00b in the wrong direction. del_trade only has 7 posts... that's just wrong man.

 

[Ripley]

Quote from Hydroblunt:

You seem to be a little slow, but there is a search function through people can tell how full of it you really are. Also, it makes it very obvious why you can't do it.

umm.. enlighten me please. How full of it am I really am? and what is so obvious as to why I cannot make it?

I think once I came up with a very big # as the cars I was going to trade in the future, based on a faulty calculation (using weeks instead of months to multiply or something, and thats pretty much it)

Please help Hydroblunt.

 

[TheCaracal]

Quote from andread:

David, please, can you make one or two examples? Whether you need to be right or not, when you see you are losing you stop, I guess.
Was the need to be right bringing this guy to hold his position even while losing? Was he trading against the trend? Was he putting too much money in each trade because he had to be right?

If you recall 2003 was a monster up year..went further than people thought.

So my buddy would short EBAY, and AMZN, RIMM made detailed cases for why they should tank, etc. I agreed to a large extent with his reasons, but was not the right time. He was convinced they would open down 10-20 points (one day), and we'd make it back. etc. I would take them off, we'd be ok for awhile, and they we would be back on. Especially if I was not around that day.

This went on for 6-7 months I had to get out. He conitnued to do this til May of 04.

His analysis was correct, but the timing was off by 2-3 years.

He was right, but at the expense of making $$.

He busted.

 

[Algorithm]

I think Ripley you are arriving at a good place psychologically. If this is true, your steps from this point onward will probably be more important to your trading efforts than all the trading efforts you have put forth to date.

There's a reason military boot camps are so rigorous in their early stages. There's a reason the zen master quizzes his student with koans only to smite him when answered incorrectly in the hopes satori may one day be obtained.

As others have said, you need to lose the I (know this sounds cliche and corny). You need to lose the I have.... You can't because I haven't....

Marines aren't born they're made. Zen masters aren't born they come to see. Might this be the case with traders? We all know Jedi are the only ones born with "it" (couldn't resist that one).

Loss of ego in the face of the markets is essential. Many trader live by and state, "It's easier to lose your opinion than your capital."

Ripley, leave the markets alone. Bathe in your present emotions. Capitulation isn't something to be ashamed of, it's to be embraced for it's you telling yourself something isn't working here or you need to change something.
I don't know about others to this forum, but many on this thread have said the same thing, and if more than one or two can see it and state it, then it's obvious.....................

Of course just my .02 over the Internet, take it as you like and for what it's worth.

 

[andread]

Guys, thank you for the asnwers. I've been wondering for a while about this need to be right, never having a clear picture. I'm starting to get the idea.

 

[traderdragon]

If you think about it, claiming the markets are too efficient and its impossible to make money, is really one big fat contradiction.

What makes markets efficient? Traders making money!

Therefore: efficient markets = 100% proof you can make money in the markets.

You just have to beat the guys who are snagging the mispriced shares before they do. Ive learned to do just that. Now im one of the guys you need to beat.

Furthermore, 3 years and getting nowhere? Do tell, how many back tests have you run looking for edges in those 3 years? I easily ran over 1 million back tests in my first 3 years. Thats over 900 a day average. I do 5000-10,000 a day sometimes digging up edges. I ran multi-variable backtests that take 2 weeks to complete at times, burning up CPU's like firewood in siberia.

What have you done to find an edge in 3 years?????????????
Do you have any idea who you are competing against in the markets? There are guys who datamine using 5000 CPU's in parallel. Whats your plan on competing against them?? Staring at a chart and feeling out the market?