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Here comes 2012 - Collapse of Dollar and Skyrocketing Oil Prices in 2012?
- Thread starter Mvector
- Start date
Quote from Mvector:
sounds good - from what events or economic conditions?
I don't know. Maybe the 17% annualized growth in earnings for the last three years? Maybe a bond offering on the 10 year below 1.25-1.5%?
As far as this call of yours goes, it is very poor, but I wouldn't expect 20-30% and something more the average of 2-5%.
Meantime, back in the real world:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-nearly-stable-at-625-in-december-2011-12-29
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Chicago PMI for December dipped 0.1 point to 62.5, a better-than-forecast reading and the 27th month of expansion. Economists polled by MarketWatch had anticipated a 60.0 reading. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. âIt appears to be a good close to an up and down year,â said one respondent to the survey. âOur backlog remains solid with several new orders still pending,â added another.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...u-s-drop-to-three-year-low-in-past-month.html
Bloomberg
Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop to Three-Year Low in Past Month
December 30, 2011, 3:09 PM EST
By Bob Willis
(Updates with economist comment in fourth paragraph.)
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits over the past month than at any time in the past three years, a sign the U.S. labor market is on the mend heading into the new year.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-u-s-existing-homes-rose-7-3-in-november.html
Bloomberg
Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rose 7.3% in November
December 30, 2011, 3:31 PM EST
By Timothy R. Homan
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in November as falling prices and low borrowing costs boosted demand.
The index of pending home sales increased 7.3 percent to the highest level since April 2010 after climbing 10.4 percent the prior month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Economists forecast a 1.5 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...bout-economy/2011/12/27/gIQACQEUKP_story.html
Consumer confidence in December surges 10 points to 64.5 as shoppers feel better about economy
NEW YORK â Americans are gaining faith that the economy is on the upswing.
An improving job outlook helped the Consumer Confidence Index soar to the highest level since April and near a post-recession peak, according to a monthly survey by The Conference Board.
It marked the second straight monthly surge and coincided with whatâs wrapping up to be decent spending for the holiday shopping season.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-nearly-stable-at-625-in-december-2011-12-29
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Chicago PMI for December dipped 0.1 point to 62.5, a better-than-forecast reading and the 27th month of expansion. Economists polled by MarketWatch had anticipated a 60.0 reading. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. âIt appears to be a good close to an up and down year,â said one respondent to the survey. âOur backlog remains solid with several new orders still pending,â added another.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...u-s-drop-to-three-year-low-in-past-month.html
Bloomberg
Jobless Claims in U.S. Drop to Three-Year Low in Past Month
December 30, 2011, 3:09 PM EST
By Bob Willis
(Updates with economist comment in fourth paragraph.)
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits over the past month than at any time in the past three years, a sign the U.S. labor market is on the mend heading into the new year.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-u-s-existing-homes-rose-7-3-in-november.html
Bloomberg
Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rose 7.3% in November
December 30, 2011, 3:31 PM EST
By Timothy R. Homan
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in November as falling prices and low borrowing costs boosted demand.
The index of pending home sales increased 7.3 percent to the highest level since April 2010 after climbing 10.4 percent the prior month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Economists forecast a 1.5 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...bout-economy/2011/12/27/gIQACQEUKP_story.html
Consumer confidence in December surges 10 points to 64.5 as shoppers feel better about economy
NEW YORK â Americans are gaining faith that the economy is on the upswing.
An improving job outlook helped the Consumer Confidence Index soar to the highest level since April and near a post-recession peak, according to a monthly survey by The Conference Board.
It marked the second straight monthly surge and coincided with whatâs wrapping up to be decent spending for the holiday shopping season.
Quote from trefoil:
Meantime, back in the real world:
11.2 % real inflation and about 20% real unemployment - if you think things are just fine then you better get full long all your money in stocks right now - start tomorrow at the open - LOL!
Real numbers - http://www.shadowstats.com/
I thought the question was the collapse of the dollar and skyrocketing oil prices? As to the latter, who knows? It's happened before, could happen again. Collapse of the dollar though is one of those things you probably will only ever see once. Not exactly a likely event.
So, what exactly would cause it, given this?
So, what exactly would cause it, given this?
Yes that is the question so I was challenging your data points. If US loses world reserve currency status this year that will be one hell of an event - watch what happens.Quote from trefoil:
I thought the question was the collapse of the dollar and skyrocketing oil prices? As to the latter, who knows? It's happened before, could happen again. Collapse of the dollar though is one of those things you probably will only ever see once. Not exactly a likely event.
So, what exactly would cause it, given this?
I made my call - you go off and start a thread and make your call for 2012.
Just a quick heads up - pretty bloomberg articles did not stop the market from getting pounded in 2008 - LOL! Anything can happen at any time - I never get complacent