Here comes 2012 - Collapse of Dollar and Skyrocketing Oil Prices in 2012?
- Thread starter Mvector
- Start date
Been hearing this prediction for thirty plus years. One day, it will be "right".
It happens when it happens...
It happens when it happens...
Quote from Mvector:
I agree - I think 2012 - I am making my call for this year - and I am ready for it if it happens.
Really? I think the breakup of the Eurozone is much more likely than this. Treasuries haven't indicated anything like that, and if negative real interest rates don't deter people from buying, then I don't know of any other currency whose country comprises 20% of global GDP that we will ever lose our reserve status. The world would be coming to an end then, but you still must have adequate dollar reserves if you expect to be able to compete against us or buy anything for that matter.
Fat chance on that, Mvector.
Even as long as we are at least 10% of Global GDP it still won't happen, so make your bets on other forex markets but betting against the dollar is a bad deal, here, if you ask me. Betting more hyperinflation in Europe leads to deflation, so voting no-confidence on Euros seems easier than betting against the Almighty, King Dollar!
I think EU and Euro will of course have severe problems too, but it will only take one event to trigger a currency breakdown in 2012. The US debt mathematics and geopolitical set ups have us right on the edge - one little shove and dollar could drop 20% to 30% of value in no time. I see some event triggering dollar breakdown this year - just my thoughts.
When debt-to-GDP >130-140%. That's in three to four years. Not 2012.
That is a good question - if bank runs start hitting EU zone and US right after any economic event, where would you rush to move your cash?
Of those I know with 500K liquid wealth or more, they are already moving and converting cash to Brazil, South Africa, and some in Canadian - this is in addition to any gold or silver coin holdings. I like the move to Brazil or South African cash but I am not so sure about Canadian dollars. Oil price increasing would help Canadian dollar but they may be too close to the mess - hard to say.
Debt to GDP ratio is not the only controling factor for US losing world reserve currency status. For instance, attack on iran will have china actively doing anything they can to hurt US dollar strength in the world - they have huge direct oil deals with iran that were set up a few years before 9/11.