Help me understand crypto Market Cap and the role of new money....

[NoahA]

https://fortune.com/2021/08/28/rolex-lamborghini-nft-comeback-digital-flex/

So I read the article and love this line

"He recalls seeing a tweet of someone boasting that they had created an NFT and sold it back and forth to themselves until the price had run up by four. “In any market, that would be totally illegal,” Domingo said. "

So, just to be clear and this may have gone over your head... If I want to sell all my Bears Deluxe NFT's, I would list them at price floor one at a time. There's enough volume per day. Or I can undercut the price floor by 0.01 Eth

Do you understand the paragraph above? It's important to address your skepticsm of a healthy market comment

Honestly, since I see so many bids on these things, I just don't know what to think. Maybe the floor price is a guaranteed sale, but specifically clicking on that button, and pulling up a random bear, I see that it has never sold close to this price. There is one offer for 2.2 ETH, but that's it. If it doesn't sell at the 3.46 price, then it clearly isn't worth this.

Since this is so new, lets see how the next few weeks go.

 

[johnarb]

Honestly, since I see so many bids on these things, I just don't know what to think. Maybe the floor price is a guaranteed sale, but specifically clicking on that button, and pulling up a random bear, I see that it has never sold close to this price. There is one offer for 2.2 ETH, but that's it. If it doesn't sell at the 3.46 price, then it clearly isn't worth this.

Have you ever bought anything on ebay but really, really wanted it shipped asap and you didn't want to wait for the item's auction to end?

You would look for the same item with a "buy it now button"

It's like buying the stock at the ask

Or putting a limit sell order and putting the price at the ask instead of hitting the buyer's bid price

That's what price floor is

I guess I'm trying to get you to understand that since I hold the Bears Deluxe NFT's, what's important for me is being able to sell when I need the money or need liquidity

As long as I can sell at the price floor or close to it, I'm good to go since I got my money, you know what I'm saying

For anyone who doesn't have Bears Deluxe NFT it's a different set of problem. Does he pay for the Bear that is listed on the price floor or look at higher priced bears that are more rare?

When I bought my Panda Bear and my Cigar Bear, I paid more, but at the time, it was selling for way less than 0.5 Eth

Click on the 7.8K volume traded and you'll see the most recent sales

 

[NoahA]

Click on the 7.8K volume traded and you'll see the most recent sales

Yes, I finally found that button and it allowed me to see the sales that closed. But the point I'm trying to make is that the floor means nothing when nobody is willing to buy.

I won't bore you with more screen captures, but as I go through these, what I mostly see is a Bear that just sold for roughly 3 ETH, and either is listed again, with a bid close to 2, or resold again, for almost the same price or just 0.1 higher, but sometimes lower.

Its good that sales are happening at 3 ETH, but I don't see this growing. You need to see 3, then 4, then 5. If you only see one sale at 3, and then nothing, maybe this was the top for this bear. If you see it sell for 3, then 3.05, that person clearly didn't have conviction in their original purchase and was happy to unload it.

Most of these Bears have only sold once for a price over 1 ETH, and have yet to sell again. And if they have sold again, the price is roughly the same as the first price for around 3.

Lastly, there are maybe 30 or 40 bears that have sold for around 3 ETH in the past day. With 7k bears available, that is far too many to to make the ones that sold for 3 ETH go higher. If I was buying a bear, maybe nobody would give it to me for 1 ETH, but I also see no reason for someone to pay over 4 since there are thousands that have yet to make it to 3 ETH.

What is good is that many have bids around 2 ETH, so that would make me feel like this is the floor, but the way they calculate the floor I don't understand. You can wait for 3, but if only 1 or 2 selling an hour, it might never happen. Perhaps it can sell for 2, but then imagine the shock that will cause to drop 50%!

 

[johnarb]

Yes, I finally found that button and it allowed me to see the sales that closed. But the point I'm trying to make is that the floor means nothing when nobody is willing to buy.

I won't bore you with more screen captures, but as I go through these, what I mostly see is a Bear that just sold for roughly 3 ETH, and either is listed again, with a bid close to 2, or resold again, for almost the same price or just 0.1 higher, but sometimes lower.

Its good that sales are happening at 3 ETH, but I don't see this growing. You need to see 3, then 4, then 5. If you only see one sale at 3, and then nothing, maybe this was the top for this bear. If you see it sell for 3, then 3.05, that person clearly didn't have conviction in their original purchase and was happy to unload it.

Most of these Bears have only sold once for a price over 1 ETH, and have yet to sell again. And if they have sold again, the price is roughly the same as the first price for around 3.

Lastly, there are maybe 30 or 40 bears that have sold for around 3 ETH in the past day. With 7k bears available, that is far too many to to make the ones that sold for 3 ETH go higher. If I was buying a bear, maybe nobody would give it to me for 1 ETH, but I also see no reason for someone to pay over 4 since there are thousands that have yet to make it to 3 ETH.

What is good is that many have bids around 2 ETH, so that would make me feel like this is the floor, but the way they calculate the floor I don't understand. You can wait for 3, but if only 1 or 2 selling an hour, it might never happen. Perhaps it can sell for 2, but then imagine the shock that will cause to drop 50%!

Only 750 are listed for sale. The rest are not for sale

You won't see my Bears listed for sale but I can post a screenshot of pages of offers on my Bears which are in the trash folder

I think we're almost there on seeing eye to eye

OpenSea is not like Coinbase

Think of it like Christie's auctions, except 24/7/365

If you're buying a Bear and hoping to flip it an hour later, I'll tell you right now, don't do it

Or any of the NFT's for sale on OpenSea. You will most likely lose money

If you're buying a Banksy and hoping to unload it for $50K profit tomorrow, do not do it

So, I'm going to repeat it again, if you are someone like me and own Bears Deluxe NFT's and you needed $11K tonight, wouldn't you think it's nice that you could list one of your Bear's Deluxe for 3.3 Eth right now this minute?

And yet, here I am responding to your email and not listing any of my Bears Deluxe NFT's. I have over 10

If someone bought the Banksy for $5M, you can be sure he's not in a hurry to sell it in the next few days or weeks to make rent. Banksy is not meant to be traded 1000 times

Each Bears Deluxe NFT is unique and is not meant to be traded 1000 times even if that's something you really really want

 

[NoahA]

I think we're almost there on seeing eye to eye

Lol.. I think we are as far apart as the spread on these bears! (which I can see is anywhere from about 2 ETH to 40)

Bansky is a current artist, but he has already made a name for himself and sells stuff you can actually put in your house. Oil paintings are generally from a master painter, long dead, and they too can be put in your house. A Bear NFT is simply a conduit for showing off your crypto riches, or perhaps a "get rich quick" scheme. There may only be 7k, but that's hardly unique as they are all pretty much just copies of each other with a minor tweak. There are only so many changes you can cram into an 80's style GIF file where you can practically count the pixels.

I understand the honey and the banana, so sure, own them for a revenue stream, but just like hard times can fall on a company who will stop paying a dividend, I imagine this revenue stream can also go up in smoke very quickly. And given how expensive they are, the % yield on your NFT investment is probably less than 1%.

But I'm all for buying low and selling high. Until I see these bears go from 3 to 5 to 10, I remain extremely skeptical. And jesus, now you tell me only 750 are listed, so there is another 90% waiting to get dumped onto the market??? If 50 sell a day for 3 ETH, it seems like there is inventory for years before the next price jump.

This guy got lucky, he just turned 0.5 ETH into 3.395 in 9 days!!!

This guy who bought at 3.45 four days ago was crapping his pants, desperate to unload. Thank god someone took it for 3.65.

And this is the real jackpot winner. He went from 0.01 to 3.289 in only 20 days!!!! The question is how will this Wesimus buyer handle his precious digital artifact??

And that rounds out the 3 most recent sales!!!!

 

[johnarb]

Lol.. I think we are as far apart as the spread on these bears! (which I can see is anywhere from about 2 ETH to 40)

I thought we were close, but nope we are nowhere close, lol

good night, bro

food for thought, Have you seen a sale that took place at the bid price?

And perhaps it means something wrt the wide spread you keep mentioning?

 

[NoahA]

Ok, I am like literally hooked on these god damn bears right now. I might put in an offer for 0.1 on some that haven't sold just to see if someone will sell to me!!! Anyway....

Here is the transaction for this bear... It was bought just 3 hours ago for 3.1421 ETH

And yet, when we scroll back up to see the bear, we see there is a Buy Now price of 3.393. Is the guy trying to make a quick profit of 0.2 ETH or is he getting cold feet???

 

[NoahA]

I thought we were close, but nope we are nowhere close, lol

good night, bro

food for thought, Have you seen a sale that took place at the offer price?

And perhaps it means something wrt the wide spread you keep mentioning?

Really enjoyed the chat!

I wish I could make better sense of this but I'm not sure which sell at the offer. What they call offer is really the bid, so I see the bids of 2 or so. But the offers, a true offer/ask price, are like 40 or some other insane numbers. I have yet to see one sell that high.

 

[NoahA]

Ok, last post for the night. I finally found what I was after....

I stumbled upon Cyberkongz, and look at the transaction history, which is not looking good. On Sept 10 they had an average price of 40 ETH based on 10 sales.

Then yesterday the average price was only 11 ETH, also on 10 sales. What are those people thinking who bought at 40 ETH???

 

[Overnight]

For the record, @NoahA and @johnarb are insane.

We now bring you back to your regularly-scheduled NFT insanity.