Help me understand crypto Market Cap and the role of new money....

[NoahA]

Ok @johnarb , just so you don't think I'm lazy , I'm doing some digging on these useless NFT's (yes, I still believe they are useless, and I will never touch them, but at least I will be able to say why!!)

A simple search comes up with this article

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/genesis-cyberkongz-nfts-rewarding-holders-204326859.html

Mentioned there is a sale of Cyberkong #52 for 180 ETH. Seems shocking, but looking at the trading history here, we see that its only been sold twice.

https://opensea.io/assets/0x57a204aa1042f6e66dd7730813f4024114d74f37/52

Now how on earth can we truly value any of this when the first guy paid 48 ETH, and the second guy paid 180. At least with a penny stock, you probably have hundreds of participants. But with this, there is no true price discovery.

Ok, so now lets look at the number 1 Cyberkong....

https://opensea.io/assets/0x57a204aa1042f6e66dd7730813f4024114d74f37/1

It seems to have a current price of 10,000 ETH, but I'm not sure if this is just asking price, because he bought it for 80, and usually the price of something is based on the last transaction. Now this owner "Clerkclirk" has an impressive collection, although I can't figure out why this one isn't listed in his collection. (I can see you can hide up to 20, so maybe that is what he did).

But this #1 has practically no history. The first transaction is a transfer (is this just money laundering???), and the only sale is for the 80 ETH. And somehow this is the most valuable one???

I love you @johnarb , I really do man.... but please explain to me what I'm missing here other than a pump and dump scheme? The owners of these NFTs look to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but how will they ever cash out? I see high prices, but really low bids. The lack of hardly any actual sales makes we wonder what the value really is.

I will tell you what opensea is good for though. I've been able to download some really nice high resolution images . Since photographers who want to mint NFTs have to upload the full higher resolution file, it means everyone has access to it. So now I can put them on my desktop and enjoy them for free!!!

 

[johnarb]

Ok @johnarb , just so you don't think I'm lazy , I'm doing some digging on these useless NFT's (yes, I still believe they are useless, and I will never touch them, but at least I will be able to say why!!)

A simple search comes up with this article

Mentioned there is a sale of Cyberkong #52 for 180 ETH. Seems shocking, but looking at the trading history here, we see that its only been sold twice.

Glad you're putting the work to learn. You should try to join their Discord and see the community conversation. You can ask questions there, too, but I won't suggest you saying things "believe they are useless" lol

I looked at the OpenSea and there are sales on genesis Kong

You were only looking at one NFT out of 1000 genesis Kongs

I don't have to convince you that there's value on these NFT's because it's not up to you or me, it's up to the market

A genesis Kong receives 10 banana tokens every day, can be traded for USDT on sushiswap and the USDT can be sent to Coinbase and exchanged for US $ and deposited to the bank

That amount is currently $25K/month or $300K/year give or take, depends on the price of banana which fluctuates, I saw it over $100 a few days ago

A little more than the average yearly salary for the typical US employee

See the picture below. There are genesis Kongs that are being bought/traded. Look where it says last, that's the last price that genesis Kong was paid for

 

[NoahA]

I don't have to convince you that there's value on these NFT's because it's not up to you or me, it's up to the market

I agree 100%, but the market is supposed to be more than 2-3 people.

I looked at the first 3 you linked and am attaching the screenshots. They are small because I wanted to get everything in one picture.

#116 was bought for 115 and 160... 2 transactions
#500 was bought for 215.... 1 transaction
#829 was bought for 215... 1 transaction

All of these have bids around 10 ETH... a fraction of their last sale price. Maybe those are just resting bids to catch some freak accidental sale, who knows, but I think we can say its a very thin market with wide spreads... LOL

A genesis Kong receives 10 banana tokens every day, can be traded for USDT on sushiswap and the USDT can be sent to Coinbase and exchanged for US $ and deposited to the bank

I have yet to figure out where this money comes from, but I do agree that once you have it, its easy to convert to cash. But I'm sure its not the robust mining that is involved with making BTC because they wouldn't give this away so freely. So if bananas are easy to acquire and give away, better convert them before its too late.

Honestly though, with such a thin market, and constant youtube videos pumping this stuff, I can't see how this ends well for most participants. I realize that there is some utility with NFT, and what artist doesn't want to collect residuals each time a sale is made.

I can also see how one day people visit the metaverse, see ads that are a revenue generator, and buy digital stuff like music or see a live digital concert, which are another revenue generator, but given these huge prices for this NFT stuff right now, I think the cart is before the horse. FB and lots of companies are trying to make VR mainstream, but its yet to take off. I think the metaverse is similar to this concept. All this NFT stuff right now is just a proof of concept, so the prices thrown around are out of this world.

But I'm willing to bet that the players that are pumping this stuff and paying 100 ETH or whatever are all on the same side of some elaborate game until the rug is pulled out. With 2 transactions per NFT, this is not a market. Its a casino at best, a rigged casino.

You should try to join their Discord and see the community conversation. You can ask questions there, too, but I won't suggest you saying things "believe they are useless" lol

Very wise words! You've been very kind to me, and I'm sure I won't get the same warm welcome there so I will stay away.

I think its best to stick with coins, the blockchain technology, and also DeFi stuff. But shit, with that recent mishap on the Compound network, this Defi stuff might also be very risky.

 

[johnarb]

I agree 100%, but the market is supposed to be more than 2-3 people.
but I think we can say its a very thin market with wide spreads...

NFT's are a thin market. The NFT markets are not liquid, especially for very high priced items

You're on another thread on Banksy. Think of a $25M Rembrandt

You don't see a Christie's auction every second or every minute, right?

You can check out the Bears Deluxe NFT. Since it's a cheaper item than a $500K genesis Kong, there's much more volume every day. Much more. There are a lot of trades on the price floor

It's difficult for me to respond to you at times since you make definitive statements like "pump and dump", "rigged casino" and lol at this NFT market

I own over 6 figures $ worth of Bears Deluxe NFT. There's a lot of value in my NFT investments

I know NFT investing is not for you, but do realize that you were seeking 10-100x returns which are obviously only possible in the riskiest investment assets. NFT is one of them

If you have another investment asset that can give you 10-100x returns that are much easier to achieve that is not NFT, please do share with all of us

Banana tokens are extremely liquid because it's on a dex sushiswap which has a liquidity pool, but that's going to be a different topic that you can look into

 

[NoahA]

You're on another thread on Banksy. Think of a $25M Rembrandt

You don't see a Christie's auction every second or every minute, right?

This is an excellent point with reference to selling high priced items. And Banksy is also a good example because he is still alive and can create more art, so its hardly limited.

But most of what Christie's sells would be ultra rare, tangible, and dare I say much more precious. You simply cannot compare an oil painting from someone already dead to a little pixelated image where just changing the color of a scarf is used as an excuse to pump out 1000 of them.

You can check out the Bears Deluxe NFT. Since it's a cheaper item than a $500K genesis Kong, there's much more volume every day. Much more. There are a lot of trades on the price floor

I am trying hard to find anything that has at least 5 or 6 transactions. I wish there was a filter for volume, but there isn't.

So I think ok, lets start with a cheap one. Here is one for 2.85 ETH. But that is just the bid.

Lets look at the history. It went from 0.01 to 0.039, and then to 0.37. And that's it. That is the final sale price. And they are all like this on the lower side of the price scale.

So here is another a few lines down.

And the history. At least this one actually sold for 3.45. But just before this the price was 0.12.

Lets switch gears and go to most favorited. We end up with this. At 71 hearts, its at the top. It says current price is 888, but that is asking price.

And the history shows...... it hasn't sold for more than 0.027 ETH. WTF???

Ok, the most viewed one is this, followed by the history. At least is has a sale of 6 ETH. But that is the only sale after the initial 0.01

I own over 6 figures $ worth of Bears Deluxe NFT. There's a lot of value in my NFT investments

How honestly can you say this when some of these bears have yet to sell for more than 1 ETH even though the value seems to be in the dozens or hundreds of ETH?

I just don't understand when there are hardly any sales. Yes, I see bids around 2 ETH for some of these bears, but since the auction is open for a long time, I don't know if the seller can instantly take a lower bid, or if those bids get pulled before the close. Maybe the bids are there just to make it look like there is interest, just like algos pulling quotes with futures trading.

I'm not trying to be rude to you, but I fail to understand the value when the price history in no way shows that there is a market for this stuff.

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Ok... one more tactic. Lets look at recently sold. It will be in my next post.

 

[NoahA]

So here are the most recent 7. No need to even list the bears. Lets look at the transactions. Many go from nothing, to all of a sudden above 3. Some might have a sale at 1 or 1.5 in between, and this is a good sign, but what I really want to see if from 3 to 5 to 10, etc.

This first one even first sold for 3.25, and then down to 3.18. Someone must have gotten scared when they couldn't flip it and took a small loss, happy to get out I'm sure.

 

[johnarb]

I just don't understand when there are hardly any sales. Yes, I see bids around 2 ETH for some of these bears, but since the auction is open for a long time, I don't know if the seller can instantly take a lower bid, or if those bids get pulled before the close. Maybe the bids are there just to make it look like there is interest, just like algos pulling quotes with futures trading.

I'm not trying to be rude to you, but I fail to understand the value when the price history in no way shows that there is a market for this stuff.

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Ok... one more tactic. Lets look at recently sold. It will be in my next post.

I think I finally figured out why you're having a difficult time understanding this market place

NFT = non fungible tokens

I thought you read up a lot of Daal's posting on his thread, but apparently that idea escaped you

You're used to items that are fungible

You buy 100 shares of Amazon, it's equal to someone who owns 100 shares of Amazon

You buy 100 Ethereum tokens, someone else has 100 Ethereum tokens, same value in $ when you sell at Coinbase (as long as both were not part of something illegal like a Colonial Pipeline hack)

NFT's are 1 of a kind items

A Bears Deluxe that has a wizard pipe is worth more than a regular Bear

If you needed the money for rent or food and you have a regular Bears Deluxe, you'd list it at the price floor (lowest price listed as Buy it Now) and hope someone buys it. Most of the trades are on price floor price whatever that may be at that time

You would be extremely dumb if you listed a Bears Deluxe with a wizard pipe at price floor, it will sell in less than a minute as many are watching those items. That could easily go at double the price floor

Anyway, don't flood your threads with picture. There's no need. Just read this post and re-read it and if you still don't get it, you can ask a follow up question

NFT's are like Art auctions at Christie's but happens 24/7/365 on OpenSea

https://fortune.com/2021/08/28/rolex-lamborghini-nft-comeback-digital-flex/

 

[NoahA]

OMG, I finally found how to list the volume of trades. So in the past 7 days, 4,588 ETH has been spent on these things with an average price of just over 3 ETH.

But when I look at the actual sales, I see some trading hands for slightly less or slightly more than a very recent previous sale. This tells me that people are trying to get rid of it real quick.

The price seems to be in the 3 ETH range in literally just the past couple of days.

Here is one that sold for over 4, but the guy who bought it for 3.5 was very happy to get rid of it at 4.2, so he clearly didn't have much faith in this, but just hoped to unload it quick for a profit.

Another random one. The guys who really made out like bandits are the ones who got in at the floor of 0.06, but even the guy who bought at 4 and sold for 5.5 must be happy!

And here is the last one... This poor sucker paid 6 over a day ago, but they seem to just be going for 3 or so right now. I bet he feels like he overpaid. But look, he is asking for 40!!! I love how they list Current Price as the asking price, as if this somehow makes it worth this much. Current price should be last price, simple as that. Who knows, someone might jump at it and this guy will be one lucky dude.

 

[NoahA]

Anyway, don't flood your threads with picture. There's no need.

Opps, too late for that as I just did it again in my next post.

I have no trouble understanding that they are one of a kind. What I have trouble with is why someone needs to own one. Based on my transaction investigation, I can see that some are hoping to just unload at a higher price, and I think that covers 95% of the sales.

Lets check back in a week to see where the sales are at. If I look at just 2 days ago, the prices were in the 2 ETH range. Who knows, maybe in a week they will be over 5 or 10, but given that most only sold once for a decent sum (anything over 0.1), I think its too early to call this a healthy market.

 

[johnarb]

Opps, too late for that as I just did it again in my next post.

I have no trouble understanding that they are one of a kind. What I have trouble with is why someone needs to own one. Based on my transaction investigation, I can see that some are hoping to just unload at a higher price, and I think that covers 95% of the sales.

Lets check back in a week to see where the sales are at. If I look at just 2 days ago, the prices were in the 2 ETH range. Who knows, maybe in a week they will be over 5 or 10, but given that most only sold once for a decent sum (anything over 0.1), I think its too early to call this a healthy market.

You will be a lot of fun at a Christie's or Sotheby's auction, bro

"wtf!!!! you paid $100M for a very old canvas with very old paint!!! I can get you a brand new canvas...."

That guy selling for 40 Eth is not desperate to unload higher. He sells regular Bears Deluxe and buys high rarity Bears Deluxe

Google Rarity tools and type that Bears Deluxe number

One more time, NFT's are one of a kind items. like arts and collectibles. No 2 are alike but many have the same traits and are less rare in qualities in the Bears Deluxe population

By they way, click on that user MikeyLikesCrypto and check out the items he owns. That dude is a whale and he owns at least 4 laptop face Bears Deluxe, another rare trait

So, just to be clear and this may have gone over your head... If I want to sell all my Bears Deluxe NFT's, I would list them at price floor one at a time. There's enough volume per day. Or I can undercut the price floor by 0.01 Eth

Do you understand the paragraph above? It's important to address your skepticsm of a healthy market comment

[PS: I have 2 high rarity Bears Deluxe that I will not be listing at price floors, btw, one is panda species and one is a cigar bear]