Help me understand crypto Market Cap and the role of new money....

[johnarb]

Its obvious that he pumps out videos like crazy because his YouTube channel is a big cash cow for him

I'm sure his YouTube is bringing him good money, but....

Once you get a 10 or 20 or even higher bagger, you'll understand YouTube is peanuts

He got into a genesis Kongz at 1 Eth and told his viewers about it, I don't know how much 1 Eth was at the time, but definitely it was less than $5K

Today, a Kongz Genesis makes $830/day in Banana tokens passive income or he can put it up for sale, lowest price is over $650K (185 Eth) on OpenSea

I don't know how many Kongz Genesis he has, but...

He got into Supducks when they were 0.01-0.02 Eth and says he's a whale there (10, 20 or 50 or more), that's only about $30-60 per Supduck, each one is selling for over $10K right now

He said he got into Cool Cats at 0.1-0.2 Eth or about ~$700, now a Cool Cats is 12.5 Eth or $45K each

He talked about Fantom at 3 cents, funny story about Fantom, I had some Fantom at 32 cents and when it went up a few months ago, got out and went into a different project. Made a little bit, nothing to write home about. Today, a Fantom FTM token is selling at $2.27 each

How many hundreds of thousands of FTM does he have? I had about 60,000 FTM but my cost basis was 10 times higher than his

So, I don't think you have a scope of how much $$$ he's making on cryptos vs his YouTube revenues. You'll see it the first time you hit a 10 bagger

But that was supposed to be your job when I told you about that YouTube channel. To go back in time on his videos, to look at when he talked about these projects and verify his 1000's and 10's of thousands of % returns on them

And you chose to spend your time and effort on other things based on this thread....

The thing about cryptos is that they do not have an expiration date. Not like options. You can buy crypto tokens or NFT's and hold them. All you gotta have is conviction

 

[NoahA]

There are a variety of basic problems with the 'metaverse' concept

I don't believe in this too much. We humans are biological. We use digital to make life easier, but that is already causing major issues for our health. Its obvious FB and IG are damaging people, and modern young women today are already too damaged from all the affects of social media. This will all come crashing down once easy money dries up getting paid to post stupid videos is scaled back.

Now it can still go up from here of course, but ultimately we must be close to a top. I think when the economy takes a hit, so will all this digital stuff, and the entire influencer economy gets dragged down with it. (These influencer women also have to realize that their earning years are very short. They aren't young and hot forever, and if you ask me, its the only way women have the following they do. They might think people like them for their fashion tips of crypto posts, but its all just tits and ass that they are selling.

Crypto markets are in an interesting position because, in my opinion, at least 80% and maybe 90%+ of crypto and crypto-related assets like NFTs are held by speculators anticipating massive price gains in the immediate future. Likewise, the maximalist claims of hundred-trillion market caps are just fantasies. Normally, this screams that a market is on the verge of crashing and wiping out the specs. On the other hand, fundamental analysis shows that there's at least the reasonable possibility of 3-6 fold price gains from here for the main tokens. The normal bubble trajectory is to explode far beyond fair value and then crash back towards it - so in an extreme bubble scenario you could indeed see bitcoin at 500k or more for at least a brief time. Obviously individual NFTs and shitcoins can go up millions of percent, but good luck positioning yourself beforehand.

These are my thoughts exactly!

 

[NoahA]

You can buy crypto tokens or NFT's and hold them. All you gotta have is conviction

Totally agree. And that's what I don't have! LOL... But I understand that with a stock, I might be lucky to hit a 2x trade, but with crypto, 10x and higher is almost easy. So the asymmetry is there and its a good enough reason to play.

But I can't keep track of all these stupid names. There is like so much out there, and each time I learn about 1 thing, there was 10 more things. I almost just want to buy a shit-coin ETF and a shit-NFT ETF and have a bit of exposure to everything! LOL

 

[NoahA]

He talked about Fantom at 3 cents, funny story about Fantom, I had some Fantom at 32 cents and when it went up a few months ago, got out and went into a different project. Made a little bit, nothing to write home about. Today, a Fantom FTM token is selling at $2.27 each

Oh, and yes, I looked up a bunch of the stuff that he was talking about, but the charts were a bit crazy. A long time of doing nothing, and then a huge spike. Its all literally just penny stocks.

 

[johnarb]

But I can't keep track of all these stupid names. There is like so much out there, and each time I learn about 1 thing, there was 10 more things. I almost just want to buy a shit-coin ETF and a shit-NFT ETF and have a bit of exposure to everything! LOL

I hope you can see how your post looks to me

You want 10-100x returns but don't want to put in work and research

You want 10-100x returns but don't want the volatility

You want 10-100x returns but don't want the risk

High risk/high reward

You want safe, you can buy the S&P index and wait 10, 20, 30 years

 

[johnarb]

Oh, and yes, I looked up a bunch of the stuff that he was talking about, but the charts were a bit crazy. A long time of doing nothing, and then a huge spike. Its all literally just penny stocks.

Yes, you hodl

Dude, you know how long it took for btc to get to this level with many sideways periods???

You know how much fud I've had to deal with on just bitcoin

Check out all the fud threads and fud posts whenever btc had a pullback

MANY, MANY, MANY fud POSTS from Master Poo poo, virtusa-is-a-liar, ET180, asshole-Dicearecast, sociopath-Sig, schweiz, dozu888

These shitheads spill out fud posts to have fun. I don't care. I can hodl, but I f*cking despise them for causing others who are lurking and reading ET and eventually are scared away from investing in bitcoin and cryptos

Bitcoin and cryptos are an extremely rare chance for regular retail investors to front run the rich and accumulate life changing wealth

 

[Magic]

@Specterx

That's a great rational perspective. Thanks for sharing. Having some fundamental baseline so we know when to allocate away from something on a huge rally is important. I don't know how much %wise but definitely there is speculative hype and dumb money fueling crypto and that will drain out during each crash. Who knows how many times crypto will cycle until it's relatively stable.

After the inflows due to increased participation, risks being sanitized, potential tech advances, etc start to subside, I expect volatility to slowly come down and it will function more like a currency. Aside from scattered markets that already exist in games, I think ETH, if it becomes mainstream and dominant enough will experience a force multiplier effect, because it will pick up a lot of social value. No one knew they needed a smart phone 30 years ago, and now it's completely integrated into everyday life for leisure and business.

For example, NFTs aren't just art, they are something that can be integrated into all social media potentially. And sure that doesn't account for the high values on all the speculation, but the constant stream of grass-roots demand will make an impact. I think ETH will eventually flip with BTC for top market cap, and it has the potential to behave more like a currency than a safe haven asset. And if it makes it to that point the ceiling is higher than precious metals.

There is also decent use cases in defi; liquidity can be exchanged and meet short-term market demand with greater transparency and less cumbersome/profit-taking intermediaries. Which is also a value beyond safe haven effect and a function more like a currency.

I will probably start to allocate away from crypto if we start passing up some of the more conservative ceiling estimates. But it has enough going for it that I can't understand where advocates of 0% crypto are coming from. And @NoahA lol thinking we are close to the top, if peak valuation is what you mean by that.

 

[NoahA]

@Specterx

And @NoahA lol thinking we are close to the top, if peak valuation is what you mean by that.

I'm just saying that if you add 10x of market cap, where does it come from? If it comes from more stimulus, that is a huge problem. If it comes from inflation, that is another problem. You can't match the value of the entire stock market without something being seriously wrong.

 

[NoahA]

You know how much fud I've had to deal with on just bitcoin

You are a very strong man and an excellent poster. You deserve all this success and I thank you for all your posts! Keep them coming please.

 

[johnarb]

I'm just saying that if you add 10x of market cap, where does it come from? If it comes from more stimulus, that is a huge problem. If it comes from inflation, that is another problem. You can't match the value of the entire stock market without something being seriously wrong.

Only my observation, but cryptos financial ecosystem is operating and growing as an alternative to the existing one

Imho, the crypto investors cash out enough to get their lambos or rolex watches, but are content to leave most of their net worth in cryptos. This is certainly true in my case, even my stock market position (MSTR calls) is connected to bitcoin

So, if the cumulative market cap of cryptos go up by tens of trillions, it's all just numbers and paper value that are never meant to be cashed out

The money and value that are coming from institutions are going into cryptos but not coming back out

What's important is distribution and organic growth of the ecosystem participants, over 120M crypto users worldwide

This is why the projection of 1B crypto users worldwide in a few years is a significant milestone

It's the same growth of the Internet adoption 20 years ago

“I got a call from Paul Jones and he says, “do you know that when #Bitcoin went from $17,000 to $3000 that 86% of the people that owned it at $17,000, never sold it?”....So here’s something with a finite supply and 86% of the owners are religious zealots” - Stanley Druckenmiller