Heads up - FB earnings, Wednesday Nov 04. TSLA and PCLN also on deck.

OTM-Options

OTM-Options

Earnings is now coming to an end for 2015. Below are 3 stocks I'm following, FB being the main one.

  • TSLA Tuesday November 03 - After the bell.
  • FB Wednesday November 04 - After the bell.
  • PCLN Monday November 09 - Before market open (take note - option positions would have to be opened the week before).

All eyes will be on FB. I'm very bullish on FB and considering buying OTM weekly calls. Could FB hit $110.00 the day after earnings? I think so.


  • TSLA - I'm very bearish on TSLA and might try some puts.
  • PCLN - How do you play a stock that defies gravity? I think I will sit this one out. Surprisingly there is no ET chatter on PCLN - It's flying under the radar.






:)
 
Just like last quarter the worthwhile (for near dated calls) repricing move w/ FB happened prior to the ER, last time it was 15% in ~4 weeks, this time ~12% in 3. I know because I positioned for this 3 weeks ago buying each weeks's weekly calls at higher strikes. Now the IV you have for ER week is for FOOLS.

Please don't take this the wrong way, but, do you make money at what you do? It could go up MORE on ER, sure, but let's consider the probability-weighted risk:reward & take into account the price of that junk premium. Do you have an "edge"? You do not.

....The quarterly FB trade is over... unless, you could sell OTM weekly calls & buy the following's that way profit from Krush & if you get very lucky it could work out brilliantly. I tend to prefer not relying on luck when placing trades.
 
felixbocharov said:
Looks like a good buy on Monday and sell it on Wednesday.
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It is my expert opinion: that I thoroughly suck at predicting what is going to happen

Because I do

For a trader to try and know the unknowable - is a fool's errand - again - in my expert opinion (been there..., done that..., did not get a T-shirt)


With institutional money..., then earnings - next week will be a volatile one for FB

And I hate volatility - but..., it is..., what it is


RN
 
Redneck said:
It is my expert opinion: that I thoroughly suck at predicting what is going to happen

Because I do

For a trader to try and know the unknowable - is a fool's errand - again - in my expert opinion (been there..., done that..., did not get a T-shirt)
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Redneck ........ Any trader placing an option order will be trying to "predict the unknown" - the future stock performance. They will then build the option position around that "prediction". Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.



Redneck said:
With institutional money..., then earnings - next week will be a volatile one for FB

And I hate volatility - but..., it is..., what it is
More...



No volatility, no options - it's as simple as that. And that would be a sad day for the market if volatility is eliminated.



:)
 
Redneck said:
It is my expert opinion: that I thoroughly suck at predicting what is going to happen

RN
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i take it you dont suck at predicting in faster timeframes because no matter how you look at it, it is always the same thing. If you claim reaction, not prediction, then the same is applicable to slower timeframes.
 
Autodidact said:
i take it you dont suck at predicting in faster timeframes because no matter how you look at it,

it is always the same thing.

If you claim reaction, not prediction, then the same is applicable to slower timeframes.
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How you've described my trading..., and what actually transpires are worlds apart

There is no "predicting" involved

And yes..., I suck at predicting on all TFs

You are correct in stating: "it always the same thing" - it has to be

As to "reaction" - who knows

========================

see a signal - enter
trade works / trade breaks down
on the the next one

Is that predicting..., reacting... following a process..., something else

I know exactly what it is to me..., and that is all that matters

RN
 
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