.Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
This is all a waste of time. These Phd's have finally found a field where they can get decent-paying jobs and are trying to milk it for all its worth.
The post 2004 predictions are a joke. The Republicans could get overwhelming majorities in the elections and abolish cap gains taxes. The Dem's could take the White House and Congress and impose punitive taxation, because it's "fair." I guess the cycle frequency would change.
William O'Neill and Jeff Cooper both frequently make the observation that it is not necessary to predict the market but only to understand where you are now.

. If you come once efficiency has been established well it's too late.
. A casino is mostly efficient since there is no delay whereas stock market has a big delay ... because building a propaganda to tell a fairy tale to the public mass takes some times : brains are slow compared to the machine
.Quote from FishSauce:
If his theory and methodology are true (which is a HUGE "if"), it will dissipate once people replicate.
D.E. Shaw example should more than provide guidance.
Market are efficient for the most part. The Inefficiency gets ironed out ... eventually.
.Quote from harrytrader:
I say we ARE and not WILL because monthly scale is never very precised, on daily scale we have already met the TL zone (TL means Top Local, it is systematically after a BRK or Break Zone) of 8524 theorically since the real high today was 8526 within 2 points as very often (remind that it is calculated 24h in advance and that it is checkable by everybody since I post it everyday before market's opening on my site).
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.Quote from Babak:
Finally!! a post by harry that I not only understand (sort of) but also agree with.
Ze frensh arrr maybeee not dat, how you say... bad?
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