Have you heard of Didier Sornette?

Don't talk about what you don't know: stay with porn but do not come into Science :D

Sornette did never pretend to crack all the market's code since his model is of stochastic type haha ! Stochastic model by definition uncapsulate acceptance of some ignorance.

Quote from darkhorse:



science porn: slick, glossy, obscenely sexy material detailing rocket science type attempts to 'crack the market code', usually involving wacky math, PhD concepts, or archaic thousand year old formulas having something to do with geometric angles or Mayan rituals. Science porn addicts, like regular porn addicts, spend most of their time masturbating over fantasies.

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Drawing trendlines will give you support and resistance but won't tell you the probabilities that they will be broken or not. And drawing trendlines supposed that you wait at least for 2 points if not three to appear whereas some model could tell you before because it predicts whereas drawing trendlines is extrapolating after the facts. And trendlines are not as precise as one pretends because of noise around the level because they are not the true supports and resistances but only approximations whereas true model can give a more accurate precision. And more precision means practically tighter stop of a factor of several hundred %.
On PDCA cycle I talked above I would rather consider the use of trendlines during the D phase not during the P phase.

Quote from Walther:

All one has to do is to draw few trendlines ( beside knowledge of your market of choice ) to be more accurate in all time frames then all those certified complicators from universities around the world . They cannot do anything meaningful on shorter time frame then yearly .
Walter
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No it is not the same thing as gann because power law used in times series modelling is of stochastic nature. Random Walk is a special case of power law also (1/2). Gann squaring time and price is not stochastic. It is deterministic and since he said that he had discovered the true equations of demand and offer of the market it can only be that thesess equations are of the same nature as mine, but he never wanted to show them not only the equations but even the results - even also to his direct associates - instead he transformed them into geometry rules the same kind of transformation I made with my pseudo-elliott charts the difference I show the underlying true model charts whereas gann didn't want to. The reasons could be that he didn't want people to discover the equations from the results and/or it is more marketable to sell esoteric mysteries about golden numbers to people without explaining them where it does come from. The cost of his seminar was 5000$ dollar at that time already :D

Quote from PuffyGums:

?!? Sornette's model is relatively simple and its derived from the math of spreading activation, minority games etc... From what I could understand of the book, it has a good conceptulal foundation and the model is fairly simple, no danger of overfitting to past data etc... (its simple, meaning it has few variables not simple to understand).

There seems to be a big link between Sornette's model and Gann who was squaring time and price and drawing angles off of that. Sornette's model begins with the power law function which is what you get when you square time and price.
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To harry:
Trendlines , if used properly can place trades within 10 minutes or less. To use them successfully , you have to understand little bit more about them then you do now.
My point was that many professors just complicating things more then necessary and producing unusable theories in process.
Walter
 
Sornette is not talking about trading. Sornette is talking about market's model which is a different domain. His target is not you but rather the institutions who needs forecast in long term range and not 10 minutes range.

As for using trendlines of course you can I didn't said the contrary and I use them myself as I said during the D (Do) phase but not during the P (Plan) phase since they don't even exist before market opens.

That's why I have make a summary of trendlines and patterns in traditional TA:
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/_sgt/m1m2s2_1.htm

and illustrated that in a flash animation:

http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/_tutorial/trade_setup_truncation_wave2.html

Quote from Walther:

To harry:
Trendlines , if used properly can place trades within 10 minutes or less. To use them successfully , you have to understand little bit more about them then you do now.
My point was that many professors just complicating things more then necessary and producing unusable theories in process.
Walter
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Quote from harrytrader:

As for using trendlines of course you can I didn't said the contrary and I use them myself as I said during the D (Do) phase but not during the P (Plan) phase since they don't even exist before market opens.

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I hope that you are kidding.. or are half asleep or something..
 
This is all a waste of time. These Phd's have finally found a field where they can get decent-paying jobs and are trying to milk it for all its worth.

The post 2004 predictions are a joke. The Republicans could get overwhelming majorities in the elections and abolish cap gains taxes. The Dem's could take the White House and Congress and impose punitive taxation, because it's "fair." I guess the cycle frequency would change.

William O'Neill and Jeff Cooper both frequently make the observation that it is not necessary to predict the market but only to understand where you are now.
 
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You should remark that this TL (acronym meaning Top Local - which is calculated IN ADVANCE not AFTER of course) happened at time unit 10. By observation a cycle is 9 times units and 10 is the extreme limit (sort of "resistance" in time), like the TL price is just after the BRK (BREAK price) as its resistance.
So the TL in price or the 10 times unit are sort of presignal (it will become a signal only after confirmation).


Remarkably and INDEPENDANTLY (since the fundamental equations above don't use golden ratio as INPUT whereas the chart below takes only the first two values from the fundamental chart and use golden ratios) there is a golden ratio at a value that was very near the fundamental one of 8524 which was 8523. And remarkably also it is qualified as continuation presignal.

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If this was just an exceptional case among several this would not be significant statistically but it is not and today this is the only formal way to really demonstrate the existence of geometry in market since without a formal model opponents could always pretend than the "golden" analysts cheat by chosing points that fit the ratios whereas with a formal model that doesn't suppose golden ratio the points cant be chosen arbitrarily since they are automatically predetermined everyday and not under the influence of human subjectivity.

Quote from harrytrader:

I say we ARE and not WILL because monthly scale is never very precised, on daily scale we have already met the TL zone (TL means Top Local, it is systematically after a BRK or Break Zone) of 8524 theorically since the real high today was 8526 within 2 points as very often (remind that it is calculated 24h in advance and that it is checkable by everybody since I post it everyday before market's opening on my site).

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If his theory and methodology are true (which is a HUGE "if"), it will dissipate once people replicate.

D.E. Shaw example should more than provide guidance.

Market are efficient for the most part. The Inefficiency gets ironed out ... eventually.
 
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