Have you heard of Didier Sornette?

I didn't read in detail yet, I just have a rapid glance at it. I will tell more this we. What I can say is that he will never discover my model by this path :) because mine is a microscopic model and at the moment all physician models are macroscopic and as he said in his paper since he doesn't have a microscopic model he can't know why it behaves like that.


Quote from Babak:

He's a UCLA physicist and complex systems theorist who has written a new book that puts forward his theory that stock crashes are predictable.

Here is his personal link:

http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/20021031.asp#prediction

And here's a link to related UCLA press release:

http://www.newsroom.ucla.edu/page.asp?id=3745

I read his page but couldn't make head or tail of what he was saying. Since I also can't make head or tails of what HarryTrader usually is saying I thought perhaps he would be good enough to put his croissant down for a moment to enlighten us.

Of course, others who are equally or more so gifted with similar knowledge would also prove their magnanimity by clarifying this topic for the benefit of mere mortals.
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Quote from harrytrader:

[snip]What I can say is that he will never discover my model by this path :) because mine is a microscopic model and at the moment all physician models are macroscopic and as he said in his paper since he doesn't have a microscopic model he can't know why it behaves like that.
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So Harry dude, with your model, that wont be discovered by professors, ..... R U RICH YET???!!!! :-)
 
I wrote an article of 5 pages in 1998 before the crash of that year for initiating the non-mathematical public to chaos theory and stock market , you can try to use an automatic translator but I fear the worst :)

http://www.boursenovice.com/articles/p_1.htm

So I will try to translate some passage later, but not this week (sorry don't have time at the moment).
.

I also suggest that you read the article of Mandelbrott published in scientific american. You can find a copy here http://www.elliottwave.com/education/SciAmerican/Mandelbrot_Article2.htm (because Prechter dispute him about the paternity of fractals in stock market ; it's because he doesn't understand the difference between science and empirism :) )

After that I could explain things more easily when I come back next week.

Quote from harrytrader:

I didn't read in detail yet, I just have a rapid glance at it. I will tell more this we. What I can say is that he will never discover my model by this path :) because mine is a microscopic model and at the moment all physician models are macroscopic and as he said in his paper since he doesn't have a microscopic model he can't know why it behaves like that.
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I say we ARE and not WILL because monthly scale is never very precised, on daily scale we have already met the TL zone (TL means Top Local, it is systematically after a BRK or Break Zone) of 8524 theorically since the real high today was 8526 within 2 points as very often (remind that it is calculated 24h in advance and that it is checkable by everybody since I post it everyday before market's opening on my site).

<IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=243282>
 

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For the weekly scale it can bluff up to 8646 on current weekly chart (left chart - there should be a TL after the BRK like the daily scale above but it hasn't been programmed yet because it is counterclock and the algorithm is more difficult to do in Excel :D) or if it is not clear on past week chart (right chart calculated every Friday so 1 week in advance)
 

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If for the understanding of the basics you look for complexity well there isn't since there is only one single rule that couldn't be simpler :
<a href=http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/_sgt/m1m2s3_1.htm target='_blank'>http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/_sgt/m1m2s3_1.htm</a>

the legend is also useful:
<a href=http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/legend.html target='_blank'>
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/legend.html</a>
especially text of captions:
- BRK: Break zone
- TL: Potential top
- S(+): Support / R(-): Support / Resistance belonging to a local minimum

BUT If you want me rather to explain the CONCEPTION or SECRET of the model you can wait 10 or perhaps 1 hundred years that some researcher discovers the same physical equations than me because I won't reveal it to anybody except for some qualitative indications I have already given to some scientific researchers in the field :D!

As for the practice it is as every trading system if you don't know how to manage your trade any model will be useless.

P.S.: if you want the same nuded chart as Sornette's one just suppress all captions values and the blue line and just keep the form :D. Nevertheless it is pretty sure not the same model: he won't be able to give you a precise projection on short term scale as I can. that's what he said and this is normal since his model is based on stochastic whereas mine is deterministic and you can't beat a deterministic model with a stochastic one fundamentally.


Quote from Babak:

harry,

you might as well be posting a jpg of the entrails of a sparrow ... it has equal credibility. Not unless you explain in simple language how your system works.

I've asked you repeatedly. Yet you refuse and deflect by employing humour or some other idiotic distraction tool.

Am I making myself clear?

I just want to make sure because I've heard the French have a thing for subtlety. :)
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