Has anyone ever seen a stock market meltup?

[Giddiyup]

You can find enough information on the internet, published by enough “subject matter experts” - to justify ANY hypothesis you care to posit. Doesn’t matter how outrageous.

And still only about 50 traders (Likely far fewer according to Michael Lewis) foresaw and took advantage of the subprime market crash in 2008. And they’re freaking mortgages - with trillions of notional dollars worth of turnover and with hundreds of thousands of “professionals” making their livings in marketing, processing, writing, analyzing, and trading the things.

I bought a house with the money I made from the housing collapse. No joke.

Word on the street is that Tokyo is a big hub for US Dollar Distribution... China was the biggest client in Money Markets for Japan, now that china collateral shit the bed and hits Japan, they will sell offshore assets to cover hit at home... Japanese Yen will get a lot stronger with china fading and credit markets will go out of wack in the US. Japan and Pension funds own US Corporate debt

Very interesting times in the economy, so many things happening right now. The recovery will be interesting as well

The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

 

[MKTrader]

I expect US stock market would collapse sooner or later. Note potential Weekly 'Double Repo' sell pattern by Joe Dinapoli. If it happens, it may become a huge drop and can give you a great opportunity to make money.....

</NQ Weekly>
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Kind of ironic - right after Bone's post about TA methods that have no statistical validity, someone posts a Joe "Fib" Dinapoli chart. Dinapoli is one of many TA gurus with zero evidence of his own personal profitability.

 

[MKTrader]

Same thing with Technical Analysis - you can make a case for anything (especially if you include worse than useless analyses like wave counts [Elliott and Gann never work in real time]).

Which is why I recommended the OP pursue statistical time series modeling and NOT T/A.

Yeah, pretty funny that none of the bearish newsletter guys or other permabears knew how or when to time the financial crisis. Of course they still took credit for "calling it" because they wrote "Something really bad is about to happen!" in 2007...just like they do all other years.

 

[ironchef]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-19/meanwhile-china-echoes-lehman-interbank-market-freezes

Some more background: in China, the funding flow goes like this (per Bloomberg): big national banks lend to smaller regional lenders, which then provide financing to non-bank peers such as brokerages and funds. They in turn use the money to invest in corporate bonds.

“Smaller banks play a key role in this chain,” said Ming Ming, chief fixed-income analyst of Citic Securities Co. Right now investors are quite "risk averse and everyone wants to mitigate counterparty risks. If things get worse, China’s financial market liquidity could collapse,” he added.

In this context, the issue of NCD funding is especially troublesome, because as Bloomberg reported recently, in the aftermath of the Baoshang seizure, some Chinese banks and securities firms "tightened requirements for negotiable certificates of deposits that are used as collateral for funding." In some cases, private NCDs were shunned altogether, and some financial institutions now only accept NCDs sold by state-owned and joint stock banks as collateral while some have refused to lend money to investors pledging NCDs issued by lenders rated AA+ and below for now.

Worse, as Bloomberg followed up over the weekend, the interbank market is now also freezing up as a result of counterparty suspicions: one month after Baoshang, Chinese bond traders in China are "rethinking counterparty risks as shock waves from a government takeover of a bank ripple through the country’s financial markets."

NCD's no longer accepted cause their fake, and chinese bonds no longer taken in Eurodollar Markets or even china Interbank Markets... Ouuuuu weee! Kau tau wumao

I predict disaster too: Some time in the future, we will all be dead.

 

[GRULSTMRNN]

I decided to put him on ignore. I get my news elsewhere and I try to avoid reading extremely biased thoughts especially when the basis of thoughts is generated via unbalanced news acquisition. The stuff he posts I can read anywhere.

I agree. He must have me on ignore (if that's a feature here). We last interacted in late Dec. when he made several personal attacks then finally "agreed" to post his 2019 results at the end of the year.

At this point a good bot could do what he's doing (copy/paste news articles then put one or 2 sentences together confirming them). I just wrote that to say what he posts isn't always wrong...it's just his conclusions are extremely biased.

 

[heispark]

Yeah, pretty funny that none of the bearish newsletter guys or other permabears knew how or when to time the financial crisis. Of course they still took credit for "calling it" because they wrote "Something really bad is about to happen!" in 2007...just like they do all other years.

Then how about this one? I think Finra Margin Debt data is a leading indicator. My understanding is it's bearish and indicates a major correction is just around the corner.....

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/06/04/margin-debt-and-the-market-up-2-56-mom

 

[Overnight]

The only time I saw something that I believe defines a melt-up was Dec 26th, 2018. Hell of a day. There were two or three trading days after that, sometime during 2019, that seemed a bit wild on the upside, but that one day after X-Mas 2018 will stick with me forever.

 

[Stockolio]

I decided to put him on ignore. I get my news elsewhere and I try to avoid reading extremely biased thoughts especially when the basis of thoughts is generated via unbalanced news acquisition. The stuff he posts I can read anywhere.

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1004153/debt-saddled-china-railway-announces-restructure

CRC, which has built the world’s largest high-speed rail network, has been criticized for accruing massive debts while doing so. These amounted to 5.27 trillion yuan ($764 billion) by the end of March 2019, according to CRC’s financial reports.

 

[fan27]

seriously mate, how is your HYG short doing? Still in that position apparently?

Man...wish I was long HYG...that chart looks beautiful!!

 

[zdreg]

The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

it should be in quotes since you are not the author of this old Wall Street saying.
Just saying.