Hallo' From Iceland! Coming Home!

S

stonedinvestor

Komio Pio' Sael og blessuo'!

Wow. As ET'ers may remember after I blew the call of a market bottom and reinvested everything that I had smartly taken out of the market, I locked my high risk small cap account up- I haven't looked at it in two months!!! And I packed what little free cash I had laying around said goodbye to my family and moved to Iceland. What a great decision. The overnight lending rate is about 15%. And the Gov guarantees $20,000 from bank failure. So day after day, night after night I drank Vodka and reinvested that $20K. I vowed not to return home until the US market formed a real bottom. False start after false start had me out of the cafe & almost a at the airport, but everytime I returned to the constant stream of guaranteed money which I needed to stay afloat. Then yesterday something caught my eye, a little thing, no one on TV mentioned it... it was an extreme spike in the VIX at the END OF THE DAY, this time of trading has been where the VIX normally retreats. This tells me real panic- the kind I live with every day- has finally reached the rest of the market.

Can This Be The Bottom? Well, I'm on a a plane writing this folks and I should have a big bag of cash to invest when I land in Newark momentarily. I'm a little bit nervous about customs, I have a weird red sticker on my bag that they glued on with an arrow.... What will my online account be at I wonder? Goodness it was filled with Chinese stocks as I remember, It started at $70,000 in Jan and was WAY UP at $86,000 in just the first few months of the year. Then the collapse of the free world, my fleeing to Iceland and now my return... any guesses on where the ole' account will be at?- I'll let you know shortly. Does anyone else just stick their head in the ice and freeze up trading? I do.

What a day to return to NY and ET! Will Goldman come to the aid of AIG? YES! WILL THE FED PLAY A ROLL IN A BAILOUT? I THINK SO, WILL THE MARKET LIKE THAT TOMORROW? I DON't THINK SO. Will The Fed cut? HE CAN, INFLATION HAS MODERATED.... CAN WE CHASE AN UPWARDS TAIL INTO THE CLOSE WITH HUGE VOLUME....?? YES! Will it all reverse tomorrow YES! And then reverse again and close higher. YES! Is This The Bottom? YES! WAMU be dammed.

What a tough time to be an investor! ~ stoney
 
Not So Fun Facts About Yesterday-

In both the NYSE and Nasdaq, declining volume annihilated advancing volume by a margin of 20 to 1!

In the NYSE, the number of losing issues exceeded advancing issues by a margin of nearly 19 to 1!

How is that not a wash out capitualtion institution selling??? But how long can they go one selling....

In 1987. On Black Monday, when the S&P 500 fell 20.5%, losing stocks outnumbered winning stocks by approximately 16 to 1. So we had our own Black Monday yesterday, although it did not feel that way in Iceland.

One of the great things about drawing uptrend lines is that if you pull back far enough you can always argue for an uptrend and indeed we are sitting on a 14 year S&P uptrend sort of... and there is some Fib retracement that would argue for taking a stand here as well despite freshly breaking to new lows.... Boy the Fed at 2:00 is HUGE today folks...

My grandma used to give me stories about the mayonnaise sandwiches she used to get at the Automat when the depression was around. I don't want to go there.

For now we hang our hopes on a thin white candlestick that appeared yesterday... on ALL OTHER BIG SPIKE DAYS DOWN that I could find, the VIX candle was a eery black. Meaning fear peaked early on and receded. Yesterday we snowballed with more and more fear. I have consulted with others who agree this is a first time event. What does it mean?

~stoney
 
I'm back at the desk! Wow it's been so long, the various computers almost didn't start up.

Welcome to the Over 700 Club everyone.
Over 700 on New Lows has been a historically important level for the market. In 2001 and 2002, above 700 marked the bottom of harsh declines . In recent days we have been flirting with that level Yesterday's New Lows Level came in at 622 ... just below the 700 mark.

Something to think about. Goldman would seem to be on the hook for a lot of Goldman debt, why wouldn't they chip in on a loan. I'm surprised to hear the cnbc report that the private side is out, I still think GS is part of a bridge loan along with a foreign insurance co & the US Gov. They will say it's backed by the " good bank " of AIG or whatever, it will probably work.

Has anyone else here tried to explain what is happening in the markets to their elder relatives?
I took them through Mexico and LTC no problem, Enron and tech but I am having a hard time explaining how this happened or the legality of any of this trading and retrading in packaged mortgages.

Well. it's almost time to go to ETrade and check on the ole' account, I'm really scared. How low could it be? What kind of idiot stayed fully invested in high risk stocks? Me.~stoney
 
I am guessing you got a 60% haircut? Sorry Bro, about this difficult period but you got a great story to go with that when you at the bar drinking and listening to the other investors complain about this bullshit market.
 
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OH ENER my $27 to $60 baby! I haven't checked my PM's yet just back in time to make this great call today. Yes there is a bridge loan, yes we do chase an afternoon tail with volume yes I make some money first day back yes yes yes. ~ stoney

ps- 200 point plus DOW reversal. :eek:
 
WOWSI !!!!!!!!!!

Oh baby this is going to be 300 points plus here from the DOW's low FABULOUS! LET'S GET SOME MORE DAMN STARS ON THIS THREAD HOWEVER YOU DO THAT!!!! Jesus, I fly back just to talk to you all and take us ALL through this maddening mess and that's all the thanks I get. You would think the damn hedge fund would be nicer I helped them out too but of course once you start taking money out no one is your friend anymore.

Well that's what you get for recommending Cell Genesis I guess. Yes I got out before the crash. No I did not on Capstone Turdbine.... You know I'm peeking when I can can get the guts up at a couple symbols of mine on the Yahoo, still can't bare to go to the actual fast trading account aqt Etrade, DXPE looks especially high, FMCN didn't look THAT bad, down but not destroyed, HOLX pretty darn ugly but still a stk in the teens... there's this one really risky battery stk that I'm most worried about... haven't seen that one or looked but I know through the grapevine that they also missed earnings- overly exposed there that will be my downfall.... Synovis a bank I bought at the hedge fund that won't be reflected there, GEOY jesus I bought that in size too. This is like The Revelations! Whatever that is... some book by a skinny Brooklyn guy, can't give you the symbol folks because you all will bombast me with bad news I'm sure, I have to find out in my own indomitable way....oh the pain... an old grey elephant returns to the grounds of his ancestors and pushes the bones of his account around at his own methodical slow pace.... Pitty the elephant how sad. How bad will it be?... after swim class for my kid, that's when I'll look. CALLING A BOTTOM FOLKS is a fools game I learned that last time around.... but you all should note after endless nights away in Iceland enjoying fabulous TV and long nights with myself I have returned today. With a bold message. Why today? Who sent me? You know the answer.
Welcome Back ! ~ stoney
 
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