One Freakin' Star. If I only knew where to hit I would vote for myself many times. Yes folks good morning.
Those of you brave enough to contact me have lavished praise- what a day to come back and make a big call. But what's amazing of course is not the call but the whole sequence of events as laid out it's nice for folks that we do this with the market DOWN 200 as well. Anyway in keeping with predictions the market is now not liking the bailout and it doesn't seem like enough money to me. What is really scary here is that although this all seems based on housing and Paulson and others continually point to housing, part of this crisis is the bluff that financial institutions can cover withdrawls or guarantee your money. That is the very cornerstone of a stable society; if that wall breaks-- murders will ensue. I've got stks that were bought in the 1920's that I can't get my hands on for another ten years, what if the bank holding them goes out of business? What if those stks are worth more than the gov's gunarantee of 200,000? What if everyone at once asked the gov for their $200,000? Insurance is a scam isn't it? Even when covered your not if everyone comes a knockin' at the same time. And so it seems that under the covers here there is a real fear that people will all ask for their money to be safe at once... if that makes any sense.
Ok. Todays a big day for the market. We should start nicely down and claw our way back. It's a day to buy something. And that's where the trouble starts. Having been frozen for so long in Iceland.... by now you know this is a metaphor for not trading-- how many of you have been drinking vodka with me there? I notice no one talking back but that's fine... today is the day we must buy something so I've started my scans and it's been tough, here is where I am at 9:00 am.
1- There is something very real to the turn in housing. The ability for the new fanny and freddy to spit out loans in the $400,000 range will ignite first time buyers mortgage apps are up too, I have a ten year fixed that then goes adjustable in a bad way for my weekend house... someone like me may want to try and refinance soon. I want some exposure to housing these stks have run a lot in quiet already.
So far using charts Meritage Homes has stoofd out. 2 year fall from $45 or so now $27 and since July 14 UP 98%... This seems like more than a move off the bottom, it's a new trend and a nice chart with Insider buying at $15....
Some of the suppliers probably are a good bet here, Trex which makes false wood for decks & railings and such which have both new home sales and existing home sales, add ons for renovation - TWP - was recently downgraded and took a big spike down and is reclaiming that move... prior to the analysts action it was another very nice looking chart, I like a set up like that I'll be watching Trex today.
I feel the selling in commodity related names has been harsh but justified. I did not partake near as much as I should have on the way up and spent a good year cursing Bunge and Monsanto, stks I've owned in the past... One that always raced ahead proudly was fertilizer co CF. With natural gas as an input cost and no debt and $20 cash per share & a single digit PE and a link into farming which seems more in need right now than say steel... CF is a very strong choice for today. In the financial sector the expensive Blackrock is interesting. How is a $200 financial that moves $8 in a day only a mere $15 from it's HIGH????? What are they doing right? I'll throw that one at the hedge fund today and see what they say.
Barrons had a piece on the oven maker MIDD. I tore it out and discarded the rest of the paper, of course, now I've misplaced it. I've always liked this company in the past ( as has Barrons) so I hope to find that tear out or hunt the story down online.
The two Titans! It's quite confusing but I've been in and out many times I've owned both Titan Wheels TWI and Titan Machine TITN. It's a really bad vibe owning two names so close because when you sell one undoubtedly the other one you keep stubs it's toe and vice versa. Indeed I kept the tire co and let TITN go. TITN went on a monster run without me. Now they have both crashed back to earth and surprise! I still like the tire company. BIG tires for monster trucks in the shales and tar of canada and in the mining pits etc. More work to be done on the technical side here but another name I'm considering.
So MTH, TRP, CFwill probably head off my buys followed by BLK if the hedge fund ok's it and possibly
TWI and I might use SQNM which has been a great trading stock even from Iceland. The trick is to be where the money flows I don't think the buying will be widespread enough to lift vague tech like RIMM.
Boy Cramer really stubbed his toe on that one! The right financial, the right homebuilder , the right supplier, the right commodity play... this is how I am thinking this morning. I hope this helps. ~ stoney
Those of you brave enough to contact me have lavished praise- what a day to come back and make a big call. But what's amazing of course is not the call but the whole sequence of events as laid out it's nice for folks that we do this with the market DOWN 200 as well. Anyway in keeping with predictions the market is now not liking the bailout and it doesn't seem like enough money to me. What is really scary here is that although this all seems based on housing and Paulson and others continually point to housing, part of this crisis is the bluff that financial institutions can cover withdrawls or guarantee your money. That is the very cornerstone of a stable society; if that wall breaks-- murders will ensue. I've got stks that were bought in the 1920's that I can't get my hands on for another ten years, what if the bank holding them goes out of business? What if those stks are worth more than the gov's gunarantee of 200,000? What if everyone at once asked the gov for their $200,000? Insurance is a scam isn't it? Even when covered your not if everyone comes a knockin' at the same time. And so it seems that under the covers here there is a real fear that people will all ask for their money to be safe at once... if that makes any sense.
Ok. Todays a big day for the market. We should start nicely down and claw our way back. It's a day to buy something. And that's where the trouble starts. Having been frozen for so long in Iceland.... by now you know this is a metaphor for not trading-- how many of you have been drinking vodka with me there? I notice no one talking back but that's fine... today is the day we must buy something so I've started my scans and it's been tough, here is where I am at 9:00 am.
1- There is something very real to the turn in housing. The ability for the new fanny and freddy to spit out loans in the $400,000 range will ignite first time buyers mortgage apps are up too, I have a ten year fixed that then goes adjustable in a bad way for my weekend house... someone like me may want to try and refinance soon. I want some exposure to housing these stks have run a lot in quiet already.
So far using charts Meritage Homes has stoofd out. 2 year fall from $45 or so now $27 and since July 14 UP 98%... This seems like more than a move off the bottom, it's a new trend and a nice chart with Insider buying at $15....
Some of the suppliers probably are a good bet here, Trex which makes false wood for decks & railings and such which have both new home sales and existing home sales, add ons for renovation - TWP - was recently downgraded and took a big spike down and is reclaiming that move... prior to the analysts action it was another very nice looking chart, I like a set up like that I'll be watching Trex today.
I feel the selling in commodity related names has been harsh but justified. I did not partake near as much as I should have on the way up and spent a good year cursing Bunge and Monsanto, stks I've owned in the past... One that always raced ahead proudly was fertilizer co CF. With natural gas as an input cost and no debt and $20 cash per share & a single digit PE and a link into farming which seems more in need right now than say steel... CF is a very strong choice for today. In the financial sector the expensive Blackrock is interesting. How is a $200 financial that moves $8 in a day only a mere $15 from it's HIGH????? What are they doing right? I'll throw that one at the hedge fund today and see what they say.
Barrons had a piece on the oven maker MIDD. I tore it out and discarded the rest of the paper, of course, now I've misplaced it. I've always liked this company in the past ( as has Barrons) so I hope to find that tear out or hunt the story down online.
The two Titans! It's quite confusing but I've been in and out many times I've owned both Titan Wheels TWI and Titan Machine TITN. It's a really bad vibe owning two names so close because when you sell one undoubtedly the other one you keep stubs it's toe and vice versa. Indeed I kept the tire co and let TITN go. TITN went on a monster run without me. Now they have both crashed back to earth and surprise! I still like the tire company. BIG tires for monster trucks in the shales and tar of canada and in the mining pits etc. More work to be done on the technical side here but another name I'm considering.
So MTH, TRP, CFwill probably head off my buys followed by BLK if the hedge fund ok's it and possibly
TWI and I might use SQNM which has been a great trading stock even from Iceland. The trick is to be where the money flows I don't think the buying will be widespread enough to lift vague tech like RIMM.
Boy Cramer really stubbed his toe on that one! The right financial, the right homebuilder , the right supplier, the right commodity play... this is how I am thinking this morning. I hope this helps. ~ stoney