Half way through life and not close to being consistent

Gamblingman - I understand your view of this rally being unsustainable and at some point there will be another recession and we will drop >20%. However, I don't understand you going short tomorrow when this type of data is improving - http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Big-Four-Economic-Indicators.php

Its just asking for pain IMHO.

If you must go short I'd only do it after say 3% drop and pyramid into the position as it moves your way. In the meantime stand aside.

BTW - What type of drop are you expecting to occur and what is the catalyst ?
 
Jakobsberg said:
Gamblingman - I understand your view of this rally being unsustainable and at some point there will be another recession and we will drop >20%. However, I don't understand you going short tomorrow when this type of data is improving - http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Big-Four-Economic-Indicators.php

Its just asking for pain IMHO.

If you must go short I'd only do it after say 3% drop and pyramid into the position as it moves your way. In the meantime stand aside.

BTW - What type of drop are you expecting to occur and what is the catalyst ?
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6-8 % drop as part of a natural short term correction. I'm not an illusionist, I'm not trying to sell @ the top and hope for a new bear market to start right afterwards. I've just never seen anything like this where indexes like the nasdaq or S&P make high after high without any type of chop. Those are some seriously extended moves. I forgot what the exact count was but we've had about 10 or 11 higher monthly S&P expirations in a row. I think the last time this happened was before y2k. If you look at potential risk reward, I just think it's more likely that we'll drop 150 S&P points than it is that we'll be 150 S&P points higher from here.
 
gamblingman said:
Trust me, neither a masochist nor perma-bear (at least not knowingly). The situation was reverse in 08/09, I was super long at the end but what helped back the was I had an extra cushion due to market volatility. So when the market bounced in 09/10 I did fairly well. As it moved just up though I got shorter and shorter, I guess I missed the memo that told me when to buy and where to sell.
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You are spinning your wheels because you are trying to pick tops and bottoms, go with the flow. In long markets, only go long, search for a stock or etf with a good entry point and go long. There is no reason to go short at this time. The market will tell you when to go short. If you follow the market, your losses will decrease and the time you will loose money, is when the market enter transition mode.
 
gamblingman said:
6-8 % drop as part of a natural short term correction. I'm not an illusionist, I'm not trying to sell @ the top and hope for a new bear market to start right afterwards. I've just never seen anything like this where indexes like the nasdaq or S&P make high after high without any type of chop. Those are some seriously extended moves. I forgot what the exact count was but we've had about 10 or 11 higher monthly S&P expirations in a row. I think the last time this happened was before y2k. If you look at potential risk reward, I just think it's more likely that we'll drop 150 S&P points than it is that we'll be 150 S&P points higher from here.
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STOP THINKING SO MUCH! Just go with the flow brother. You are trading on hope. The market is long, so go long. You are not trading for money bro, you are trading to be "right". Mr. Market will kill your account if keep on this self distruction path. I hate to sound like a "Trade Guru" trying to sell you something useless but it seems like you need this cliche: "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!"
 
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