Think you have done the right thing getting out. I wouldnt want to bet a large amount on having a >10% correction before the year is out. Too many people, myself included, still prepared to buy the dip provided earnings keep doing OK, the rest is just noise.
Half way through life and not close to being consistent
- Thread starter gamblingman
- Start date
Think you have done the right thing getting out. I wouldnt want to bet a large amount on having a >10% correction before the year is out. Too many people, myself included, still prepared to buy the dip provided earnings keep doing OK, the rest is just noise.
The -2.9% GDP print was just noise huh?
It could be, we just don't know. It's not like all the news is doom and gloom. Plenty of reports are coming out bullish.
Either way, I've found that trying to trade fundamentally simply DOES NOT work with anything other than a long term perspective, which seems not to make a lot of sense when combined with high levels of leverage such as the OP is employing.
Bull markets ignore 'bad' news, bear markets ignore 'good' news...
The -2.9 gdp was real but so we're the 1st quarter earnings. It was a bit chilly at the start of year. At some point I will go short but not whilst employment is going down and we have a positive yield curve. Go with the flow 
All the noise makes it hard to hear.... but here's the broken record:
The goal of a professional gambler is to play probabilities. Since we don't know the outcome of a single bet, you have to risk only a small percent of your stake. As long as you bet too big, you will be a chronic loser.
Until you can make sense of that, I'm sorry to say - you'll never win.
If you trade price, everything but price is noise.
The goal of a professional gambler is to play probabilities. Since we don't know the outcome of a single bet, you have to risk only a small percent of your stake. As long as you bet too big, you will be a chronic loser.
Until you can make sense of that, I'm sorry to say - you'll never win.
If you trade price, everything but price is noise.
Very true
Another awesome week, down 14k5.
Closed most of my futures this morning, wasn't sure if there is or isn't an unemployment nbr. Not much to say other than life sucks right now. Down almost 10k for the year. I am in capital preservation mode rather than anything else.
My pairs trading recovered today, mostly cause it was long PETM and that stock went up a bunch. With closing that many positions I also took a lot of money out of the account since it's not being used. Checking possible vacation destinations, since I need a break from this beating. I will continue my automated trading but my main short position is down to a handful of futures (long VX, short NQ short TF short a couple ES) about 1900 QQQs and 1k5 SPYs which is 20% what is used to be. I also closed my short bonds since that's the only trade that was working and in order to avoid complete depression I had to book a winning trade. All these shorts have short options against them to hedge some upside, I will continue adjusting those but not put on any additional discretionary trades for a while.
As it was highlighted before on this thread, I was massively over levered, so now that I'm almost out of my shorts the pullback can begin.
Happy 4th and enjoy a good BBQ and fireworks !!
Closed most of my futures this morning, wasn't sure if there is or isn't an unemployment nbr. Not much to say other than life sucks right now. Down almost 10k for the year. I am in capital preservation mode rather than anything else.
My pairs trading recovered today, mostly cause it was long PETM and that stock went up a bunch. With closing that many positions I also took a lot of money out of the account since it's not being used. Checking possible vacation destinations, since I need a break from this beating. I will continue my automated trading but my main short position is down to a handful of futures (long VX, short NQ short TF short a couple ES) about 1900 QQQs and 1k5 SPYs which is 20% what is used to be. I also closed my short bonds since that's the only trade that was working and in order to avoid complete depression I had to book a winning trade. All these shorts have short options against them to hedge some upside, I will continue adjusting those but not put on any additional discretionary trades for a while.
As it was highlighted before on this thread, I was massively over levered, so now that I'm almost out of my shorts the pullback can begin.
Happy 4th and enjoy a good BBQ and fireworks !!
So let me get this right. You cut your winning trade plus panicked and sold when the losses got too painful on the shorts rather than take the early small hit.
Take a break and make sure you learn from these expensive lessons you paid for.
Take a break and make sure you learn from these expensive lessons you paid for.
Greetings !
I haven't been on ET in a while. But, the last time I was here, I remember reading about how NQ 3400 was short of a lifetime (mind you....not a year, a few years or decade but if there was one opportunity in your lifetime, that was it !) and how stops are for wimps.
That was earlier this year. Well, if one took that opportunity of lifetime and was in without a stop - will be down about 500+ points = $10K loss on each contract.
Just an observation - I'm not knocking anybody's expert analysis here.
Have a good 4th !
I haven't been on ET in a while. But, the last time I was here, I remember reading about how NQ 3400 was short of a lifetime (mind you....not a year, a few years or decade but if there was one opportunity in your lifetime, that was it !) and how stops are for wimps.
That was earlier this year. Well, if one took that opportunity of lifetime and was in without a stop - will be down about 500+ points = $10K loss on each contract.
Just an observation - I'm not knocking anybody's expert analysis here.
Have a good 4th !