Haaaaa. Delay tariffs because of Christmas shopping??

[elitenapper]

It IS the Christmas season for the import supply chain for the stuff to hit the shelf by November. So if the tariff goes on 9/1 then when they hit the American shore the importers will pay the tariff and price goes higher in the stores. The exporters sales were already done in US dollars.

So according to yourself, the President of the United States Donald Trump was lying to the American public when he said China would be the one paying the tariffs.

Trump is mostly correct that China is paying for the tariff in the sense that once the tariff is on, China usually responds with cheaper rmb and subsidies to the exporters.

LOL. The RMB/USD exchange rate has fluctuated only by about 2% (check it) since Trump took office. And you think that would compensate for a 25-30% tariff????? Seriously??? As for subsidies, it's pure unfounded speculation, or more accurately, lies from the usual suspects - propaganda outlets a.k.a. government officials / agencies, and the mainstream media.

China has got worse problems than Orange Man. For starters, Hong Kong.

And Tiananmen 2.0 would be economic suicide for China.

Bull. Exactly how did Tiananmen 1.0 (1989) cripple China?? Exactly how is the protest in Hong Kong comparable to Tiananmen, and why would it be economic suicide for China??? Orange Man is actually helping China in a big way but I don't expect you to have an inkling as to why.

Tariffs will redress the trade balance and indirectly reduce IP theft, by cutting US investment in China.

Just because Trump, a habitual liar and intellectual lightweight (same for most of his cabinet members), blames trade imbalance and "IP theft" on China doesn't make it true.

If they can live with the tariffs, then problem solved;

Huh? You mean if American consumers can live with the tariffs, right? They are the ones who will actually have to pay for the tariffs, along with US importers to a lesser degree.

Given the situation in Hong Kong, now is the time to turn up the heat and push hard on a range of economic, diplomatic and geopolitical fronts - from the Senkakus to Taiwan to the South China Sea, to the broader trade dispute, ...

LOL!!!! I am just curious. What makes you think you have all the necessary skills, training, facts, background/historical knowledge, experience, and economic, diplomatic, military expertise to even THINK about the issues and consequences, much less devise a sensible, actionable strategy/solution -- a task that has evaded the US political establishment for decades?????

Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 firms to spend $940 billion on buybacks in 2019.

The S&P 500 spent $806B on buybacks in 2018.

Both records.

And people think the Fed had big guns

Of course, the Dems want to attach all kinds of social justice conditions and provisions to share buybacks

Oh, so Goldman Sachs expects such and such, therefore it must be true and accurate, and hence it must be good, right??? Have you read anything about the long term negative consequences of buybacks??? (Hint: business/market competitiveness of the company, trade deficit for the country, tax revenue for the government, and wages/income for employees.)

And people ARE RIGHT to think the Fed has big guns ... bigger than all the political power of the US government and the financial power of ALL US corporations put together. No offence, but you write like a clueless political hack, not an informed trader / investor. Perhaps you are doing it on purpose to mock the uninformed posters here????

The china side knew it months ago, as xi said in December, we'll see who blinks first! The Orange cancelled the 10 % before even enacting them... By November, he will cancel the entire 10 % on 300 B cause trade talks are " going good ". Career ender today... All we need is bad news out of HK to erase wtv gains comes from this that's the irony, inversion is almost as bad as it was before T caving... By next yr all tariffs are removed and Huawei is doing business in the US, guaranteeeeed

Orange dockey is messing up the US economy and accelerating the downfall of the Petrodollar -- he's a donkey, but I wouldn't use the word "guaranteed" regarding Huawei -- the company may not want, and does not need, to do business in the US to remain No.1 in 5G and be globally successful.

Have you even bothered to watch the first two Democratic Presidential debates? A debauche.
I cannot think of a worse policy platform that would alienate the middle class and union employees. You know, the voters who decide general elections in swing States.

LOL. Have you ever bothered to review the track record of both parties to see neither one has done anything major and constructive to the interests of the people and the country over the past 70-80 years??????

 

[Cuddles]

Now that Trump has pulled the trigger on “the dirty deed” I have not seen anything coming from the Democratic Party to suggest that they would be any easier on China.

Because being tough on "American job killing China" has been a historically leftist position?

 

[dozu888]

So according to yourself, the President of the United States Donald Trump was lying to the American public when he said China would be the one paying the tariffs.



LOL. The RMB/USD exchange rate has fluctuated only by about 2% (check it) since Trump took office. And you think that would compensate for a 25-30% tariff????? Seriously??? As for subsidies, it's pure unfounded speculation, or more accurately, lies from the usual suspects - propaganda outlets a.k.a. government officials / agencies, and the mainstream media.

already explained HOW China pays the tariff... of course everyone except the illiterates know the importer writes the check.. it's laughable that so many have been brain washed to believe that Trump doesn't know who writes the check for the tariff.. by the way many have also been brain washed to repeat the narrative that Trump is 'intellectual lightweight'... a guy who is successful in biz/entertainment/politics.... whoever repeats that rhetoric, is either a 'lightweight' himself (the brainwashed rank n file on the left), or a political enemy of Trump (the left elites and the fake news media).

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/
this thing started NOT when he took office... it started in March/April 2018 when the rate was 6.3, so the RMB has depreciated about 11.5%, and continuing it's down trend... and mind you this 11.5% applies to all the China exports to the US, at about $550b... while the additional tariff so far is 25% on $250b... so net net so far it is a wash - in terms of the end cost to the US consumers - and again as I have already explained, and Trump obviously knows this - the importer writes the check, but the importer is compensated with lower FOB china-port price because the exporter can lower the USD price.

China's subsidies to exporters are real, monster State-Owned Enterprises have been subsidized to stay live for years/decades... widely known fact.

 

[bone]

Because being tough on "American job killing China" has been a historically leftist position?

Really ? Bill Clinton and Barack Obama spent 16 years “getting tough on China”?

 

[bone]

Bull. Exactly how did Tiananmen 1.0 (1989) cripple China?? Exactly how is the protest in Hong Kong comparable to Tiananmen, and why would it be economic suicide for China??? Orange Man is actually helping China in a big way but I don't expect you to have an inkling as to why.

Just because Trump, a habitual liar and intellectual lightweight (same for most of his cabinet members), blames trade imbalance and "IP theft" on China doesn't make it true.


Oh, so Goldman Sachs expects such and such, therefore it must be true and accurate,?

How are things going for you at the Chinese Communist Party HQ ? Still selling prisoner organs on the black market?

1. In 1989 China’s export imbalance with the West was minuscule. There wasn’t anything to sanction. At present Chinese troops have massed on the border and the rhetoric coming from the Chinese Communist Party is straight out thug. You’re delusional to think that if Beijing imposed martial law in Hong Kong and started killing protesters to think that the West wouldn’t place diplomatic and economic sanctions on China.

2. Your blinding hate for Trump aside, Chinese IP theft is a real and longstanding issue. I will refer you to the substantive and expanded (Dec 2018 amendment) IP theft and forced IP transfer case the EU filed against China in the WTO in 2018. I read it, have you?

3. The figure I quoted for 2018 stock buybacks was from the SEC and is a matter of record. Since GS runs the largest corporate buyback desk on the Street their 2019 projections carry some weight. I made no political commentary. That’s your Schtick.

 

[elitenapper]

already explained HOW China pays the tariff... of course everyone except the illiterates know the importer writes the check.. it's laughable that so many have been brain washed to believe that Trump doesn't know who writes the check for the tariff..

That's NOT explanation; rather, it's brainless fabrication on top of groundless speculation tailored for the mindless consumption of a brainwashed population.

Only semi-illiterate / brainwashed morons would believe a 25%-30% tariff can be totally absorbed by a 2% variation in currency exchange rate with the rest 23% - 28% of the cost paid for by a foreign government?? LOL!!! This is squarely in the realm of common sense.

I don't know the cost breakdown of Chinese exports but I feel safe to speculate that labor and net profit for Chinese companies wouldn't exceed 15% in most cases. You expect the Chinese government to cough up 23%-28% of the export value?? LOL!!! This type of outlandish nonsense can only flourish in America. Even people of banana republics in Africa and Central / South America wouldn't be stupid enough to believe such brainless concoction.

by the way many have also been brain washed to repeat the narrative that Trump is 'intellectual lightweight'... a guy who is successful in biz/entertainment/politics.... whoever repeats that rhetoric, is either a 'lightweight' himself (the brainwashed rank n file on the left), or a political enemy of Trump (the left elites and the fake news media).

Partisan political nonsense and propaganda. You obviously haven't digged into Trump's past and his shadowy business dealings. Nobody "succeeds" in the real estate business in New York without the help of shadowy elements. And Trump's unsavory business practices are well-known, but not to you, a Trump-worshiper apparently. Any perceptive observer with adequate real life experience can sense Trump's shallow intellect, vanity, dishonesty, ignorance and arrogance just by listening to his BS over the course of a few weeks or months.

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/
this thing started NOT when he took office... it started in March/April 2018 when the rate was 6.3, so the RMB has depreciated about 11.5%, and continuing it's down trend... and mind you this 11.5% applies to all the China exports to the US, at about $550b... while the additional tariff so far is 25% on $250b... so net net so far it is a wash - in terms of the end cost to the US consumers - and again as I have already explained, and Trump obviously knows this - the importer writes the check, but the importer is compensated with lower FOB china-port price because the exporter can lower the USD price.

Messed up time-line, arithmetic, and facts. A lot of Chinese exports have been re-routed via Vietnam and couple of other countries. On top of that, massive orders prior to tariffs taking effect and previous unsold inventory have all contributed to relatively stable prices.

China's subsidies to exporters are real, monster State-Owned Enterprises have been subsidized to stay live for years/decades... widely known fact.

I wouldn't doubt that, but at issue are the extent of subsidies, amount of subsidies, duration of subsidies COMPARED TO those offered by the US government to US corporations, like Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, ... (the list is long).

How are things going for you at the Chinese Communist Party HQ ? Still selling prisoner organs on the black market?

Well, you know, the CIA and the Mossad pay top bucks for the organs. I don't know what kind of experiments they are doing, but since they make tens of billions from narcotics trafficking every year, they would readily offer a couple of millions for a few good parts.

You want a good brain or what?

1. In 1989 China’s export imbalance with the West was minuscule. There wasn’t anything to sanction. At present Chinese troops have massed on the border and the rhetoric coming from the Chinese Communist Party is straight out thug. You’re delusional to think that if Beijing imposed martial law in Hong Kong and started killing protesters to think that the West wouldn’t place diplomatic and economic sanctions on China.

LOL!!!! You are still writing like clueless political hack / brainwashed propagandist.

2. Your blinding hate for Trump aside, Chinese IP theft is a real and longstanding issue. I will refer you to the substantive and expanded (Dec 2018 amendment) IP theft and forced IP transfer case the EU filed against China in the WTO in 2018. I read it, have you?

Hate Trump? He ain't important enough for hate. Utter contempt, yes, but to be fair, that goes for almost all of his cabinet members - Peter Navarro (academic fraud & impostor, sociopath & liar), John Bolton (neocon lunatic / war criminal material), Mike Pompeo (same as Bolton), Elliott Abrams (war criminal) ...

3. The figure I quoted for 2018 stock buybacks was from the SEC and is a matter of record. Since GS runs the largest corporate buyback desk on the Street their 2019 projections carry some weight. I made no political commentary. That’s your Schtick.

Everything from you here has been political propaganda and nonsense.

 

[HobbyTrading]

So after Christmas, will he increase the tariff?

My understanding is that for the long list of products which would be subject to tariffs from September 1st onward:
(*) some of those products have been removed from the list.
(*) some products have their tariffs delayed until December 15th.
(*) the remaining products will have tariffs applied from September 1st onward.
I do not know how large the trade value for each of these categories is.

 

[dozu888]

My understanding is that for the long list of products which would be subject to tariffs from September 1st onward:
(*) some of those products have been removed from the list.
(*) some products have their tariffs delayed until December 15th.
(*) the remaining products will have tariffs applied from September 1st onward.
I do not know how large the trade value for each of these categories is.

all this stuff is just some minor details in the general theme... the fact that Trump can put these on/off with a tweet is amazing.. and the Dems are surprisingly (or logically) very quiet on this issue (while fighting Trump on every turn on virtually anything else).... Trump has complete control it appears, while his counter party Xi apparently doesn't.... the back and forth on the China side shows there is a lot of internal tension, which makes sense because the side running the surplus certainly is getting hurt more.

 

[dozu888]

That's NOT explanation; rather, it's brainless fabrication on top of groundless speculation tailored for the mindless consumption of a brainwashed population.

Only semi-illiterate / brainwashed morons would believe a 25%-30% tariff can be totally absorbed by a 2% variation in currency exchange rate with the rest 23% - 28% of the cost paid for by a foreign government?? LOL!!! This is squarely in the realm of common sense.

I don't know the cost breakdown of Chinese exports but I feel safe to speculate that labor and net profit for Chinese companies wouldn't exceed 15% in most cases. You expect the Chinese government to cough up 23%-28% of the export value?? LOL!!! This type of outlandish nonsense can only flourish in America. Even people of banana republics in Africa and Central / South America wouldn't be stupid enough to believe such brainless concoction.



Partisan political nonsense and propaganda. You obviously haven't digged into Trump's past and his shadowy business dealings. Nobody "succeeds" in the real estate business in New York without the help of shadowy elements. And Trump's unsavory business practices are well-known, but not to you, a Trump-worshiper apparently. Any perceptive observer with adequate real life experience can sense Trump's shallow intellect, vanity, dishonesty, ignorance and arrogance just by listening to his BS over the course of a few weeks or months.



Messed up time-line, arithmetic, and facts. A lot of Chinese exports have been re-routed via Vietnam and couple of other countries. On top of that, massive orders prior to tariffs taking effect and previous unsold inventory have all contributed to relatively stable prices.



I wouldn't doubt that, but at issue are the extent of subsidies, amount of subsidies, duration of subsidies COMPARED TO those offered by the US government to US corporations, like Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, ... (the list is long).




Well, you know, the CIA and the Mossad pay top bucks for the organs. I don't know what kind of experiments they are doing, but since they make tens of billions from narcotics trafficking every year, they would readily offer a couple of millions for a few good parts.

You want a good brain or what?



LOL!!!! You are still writing like clueless political hack / brainwashed propagandist.




Hate Trump? He ain't important enough for hate. Utter contempt, yes, but to be fair, that goes for almost all of his cabinet members - Peter Navarro (academic fraud & impostor, sociopath & liar), John Bolton (neocon lunatic / war criminal material), Mike Pompeo (same as Bolton), Elliott Abrams (war criminal) ...



Everything from you here has been political propaganda and nonsense.

- you ignored the fact that the trade war related RMB move is 11.5% instead of 2%, then wasted a lot of keystrokes;

- there are a lot of moving pieces, but the currency move alone has at least the potential, if not completely already, wash out the tariff effect, while shifting the burden to the China side.

- Walmart just posted big numbers... there is no negative effect on the consumers... so prices have not increased, why not wait for the 'existing orders and inventory' to clear before complaining.

- so you do admit there is subsidy on the China side... and nobody said there is no subsidy on the US side, irrelevant to the discussion;

- so you do admit Trump is not an intellectual light weight, just that his biz conduct is 'shadowy'... well, surprise for the leftist snow flakes, the biz world is cut throat, every successful biz had killed many competitors on it's way to the top... and if everything is done within the law, you can call it shadowy all you want, others may call it biz savvy.. and one more surprise for the snowflakes, I want my president to be cut-throat in dealing with other countries, for the benefit of Americans... evidenced by the tremendous crowds at his rallies and his campaign funding from small donors so far.... no problem if you don't agree, we have a way to settle this it's called election... 306-223 in 2016, you seen nothing yet, wait for a much bigger landslide in 2020.

- it's not worship.. there are certain things I don't like, e.g. his move on the corn ethanol... but these are minor, and necessary for the trade war... his most moves are beneficial to this country and only he a non career politician can pull off these moves.

and by the way this is how the leftists argue...

- they throw out false numbers to see if they stick;
- if the false numbers don't stick, they either ignore the fail and keep going, or shift to other false facts;
- if all of the above fail, take the moral high ground and call their opponents 'unsavory', 'racist'...

have had many discussions with leftists folks on this site across many issues, this pretty much has been the pattern.

no surprises, because they don't have the truth on their side... and it's easy to explain.. here is why..

if the question is - the Dem elites to push their agenda, are they doing this for the greater good of the country, or their constituents, or for their own power grab? and if the answer is the latter then everything would make sense.

But, the leftist rank and file have been brain washed to believe the former, then nothing makes sense, therefore they way they argue always falls into a fail spiral.

 

[Cuddles]

Really ? Bill Clinton and Barack Obama spent 16 years “getting tough on China”?

Your first mistake is assuming those guys are "leftist". Why do you think moderate capitalists loved them?