GrowleyMonster's Sorta Journal
- Thread starter GrowleyMonster
- Start date
EDIT 3: Ok, I think its safe to short now Growley. Go in at 100.24. Stop at .83. Target 98.50 by eod.
Close it.
Out @.44
Thanks. I am under PDT limit right now and it is not really a good time to top up the account. We are looking to buy a cheap double to rent out, cause GF wants to get into rental properties, and I want us to go halfsies on at least the down payment. For trading, I am just sitting on my three oil stocks waiting for something good to happen. I got the shares. Just need the price. I suppose I could transfer my spare cash to my TDA account that I opened just to use the platform, and go back to three trades per week. Meh. I am feeling very patient right now for some reason.
Ohhhh. ok. And you burned your one reset. Yeah you're stuck.
I never did like that MDR buy.... when stocks drop like that, they always level for a bit then drop again. 90% of the time. Seen it dozens of times. You never want to catch that falling knife. I think I posted under Bottom Fishing that it wasn't done falling yet. But whatever, its water under the damn now.
I can't resist.... (lol).... but know what's worse than trying to catch a falling chainsaw stock?
.... Buying a piece of rental property with a "girlfriend". Yikes. Bad juju. But you're a big Growley so I'll shut-up.
Ohhhh. ok. And you burned your one reset. Yeah you're stuck.
I never did like that MDR buy.... when stocks drop like that, they always level for a bit then drop again. 90% of the time. Seen it dozens of times. You never want to catch that falling knife. I think I posted under Bottom Fishing that it wasn't done falling yet. But whatever, its water under the damn now.
I can't resist.... (lol).... but know what's worse than trying to catch a falling chainsaw stock?
.... Buying a piece of rental property with a "girlfriend". Yikes. Bad juju. But you're a big Growley so I'll shut-up.
LOL You are very very right about that but we have been together over two years now. Still haven't had our first argument yet. She tolerates all my hobbies and activities, even had a workshop built for me. I got three fermenters on the brewstand doing their thing. I meant to say "dining room table" LOL. And it is her house. Not many women would put up with that for long. I tell her "okay I need to knock the temperature in the house down to 68 degrees for the next three days and then I can ramp it back up", and she is like "yeah, okay I hope this batch comes out even better than the last." Getting married around the end of the year. I need to put a new diesel generator in the big boat so she might end up paying for the house herself anyway. We all know who is going to be doing all the work fixing it up and getting it occupied. Me. Retired, nothing but time on his hands me. LOL! I am more busy now than I ever was when I was working.
I should have waited on the MDR, yeah. But it has a lot of room to go up. In fact I should have waited on HOS and NE, too. On the NE it was a definite case of FOMO. In fact I need to do some more research and see how close Leviathan is getting to paying off. That field is what, if anything, will pick Noble back up out of the grass. The thing about the Leviathan project is the customer is totally locked in, and Israel has also signed deals to export gas from it to Egypt and Jordan. Major geopetropolitics. Anyway I misjudged how patient the market would be with it. Apparently, very patient indeed, and more patient than me.
Meanwhile I am just casually looking at a couple I have been watching, ACAD and SNDL. Nice trending even with the indexes all over the place and TVIX jumping ever which way. SNDL up 19% so far today. Still moving up.
Up $182 at the bell. A nice start for the day. Oops took a down bounce while I was typing. Oops bounced back up. Well I am in this trade for the next several months I think so I will just shut down my TWS and go on about my day.
Just had to check in for the market close. Nice. I am feeling a little better about this trade. Just 3 minutes earlier it was up $1099 but I won't let myself feel too bad with only $944. Another $800 day and I will be trading again, without robbing my checking account. I am actually not all THAT impressed. The market was up and my positions were just following along, mostly. When I will really feel gratified is when they pull up while the market is declining. That's when I will really know I got something worth staying in for a few months.
Here's hoping I am back up over PDT minimum at close tomorrow and trading again Monday. Fingers crossed, knock on wood.
Oil at $80 would set me up handsomely in short order. But even without a price boost, with shale oil not meeting expectations, offshore is going to be picking up the slack and there should be some fat contracts let out. Inventories are high and so prices aren't going to increase very much, very soon. I am looking for things to pick up in the Gulf of Mexico, though.
I was gonna make a joke about hurricanes... but for real, what historically happens to these things if there's a big storm out there and they have to shut down? That may be good for MDR though huh? You'll have to go back and look at the charts I guess.
There is usually some minor damage from a major hurricane strike but rarely is there fundamental structural damage unless it is a very powerful storm. Anyway I don't think rebuilding or repair is a major part of McDermott's business. They have always been all about new builds, usually very large bottom bearing platforms, such as Petronius which is over 1700 feet tall. I was thinking Bullwinkle was built by McDermott but GF says no. Anyway they have always been all about BIG. I worked briefly on the world's biggest derrick barge (floating crane) for a few days as a contract roustabout when I was a kid. Owned by McDermott. So they have also been around a while.
And they do big stuff.
What would be good for McDermott right now is for more shale oil projects and similar land based projects to show poor returns, which would put more demand on offshore fields and lead to more deepwater exploration. Inventories are pretty healthy so price increases of any great amount are not likely in the near future unless Iran er, I mean the Houthi Rebels, carry out more attacks on Saudi fields or infrastructure. Not sure if McDermott is doing any tension leg projects... that is the big thing for ultra deep water drilling and production these days. I don't think they have converted very many drill ships or built many semisubmersibles, either though I might be wrong. I think most of their contracts are into the 9 figure range. Anyway, successful exploration will create a need for platforms. An exploratory or proving well in deep water is often drilled by a drill ship with dynamic positioning, and in not so deep water by semisubmersible rigs, but follow on wells and production call for a platform to develop and exploit the field and that is mostly where McDermott comes in.
Keep in mind, not an expert here, just been around the patch a bit.
Honestly I have not correlated stock prices with hurricane hits but I would imagine a cat 5 storm entering the gulf would create a big dip in stocks of certain sectors, and create interest in oil futures. Just guessing, no research to back it up, and the effect of course would only last for a couple of days.
And they do big stuff.
What would be good for McDermott right now is for more shale oil projects and similar land based projects to show poor returns, which would put more demand on offshore fields and lead to more deepwater exploration. Inventories are pretty healthy so price increases of any great amount are not likely in the near future unless Iran er, I mean the Houthi Rebels, carry out more attacks on Saudi fields or infrastructure. Not sure if McDermott is doing any tension leg projects... that is the big thing for ultra deep water drilling and production these days. I don't think they have converted very many drill ships or built many semisubmersibles, either though I might be wrong. I think most of their contracts are into the 9 figure range. Anyway, successful exploration will create a need for platforms. An exploratory or proving well in deep water is often drilled by a drill ship with dynamic positioning, and in not so deep water by semisubmersible rigs, but follow on wells and production call for a platform to develop and exploit the field and that is mostly where McDermott comes in.
Keep in mind, not an expert here, just been around the patch a bit.
Honestly I have not correlated stock prices with hurricane hits but I would imagine a cat 5 storm entering the gulf would create a big dip in stocks of certain sectors, and create interest in oil futures. Just guessing, no research to back it up, and the effect of course would only last for a couple of days.