GrowleyMonster's Sorta Journal

GrowleyMonster said:
There is usually some minor damage from a major hurricane strike but rarely is there fundamental structural damage unless it is a very powerful storm. Anyway I don't think rebuilding or repair is a major part of McDermott's business. They have always been all about new builds, usually very large bottom bearing platforms, such as Petronius which is over 1700 feet tall. I was thinking Bullwinkle was built by McDermott but GF says no. Anyway they have always been all about BIG. I worked briefly on the world's biggest derrick barge (floating crane) for a few days as a contract roustabout when I was a kid. Owned by McDermott. So they have also been around a while.

And they do big stuff.

What would be good for McDermott right now is for more shale oil projects and similar land based projects to show poor returns, which would put more demand on offshore fields and lead to more deepwater exploration. Inventories are pretty healthy so price increases of any great amount are not likely in the near future unless Iran er, I mean the Houthi Rebels, carry out more attacks on Saudi fields or infrastructure. Not sure if McDermott is doing any tension leg projects... that is the big thing for ultra deep water drilling and production these days. I don't think they have converted very many drill ships or built many semisubmersibles, either though I might be wrong. I think most of their contracts are into the 9 figure range. Anyway, successful exploration will create a need for platforms. An exploratory or proving well in deep water is often drilled by a drill ship with dynamic positioning, and in not so deep water by semisubmersible rigs, but follow on wells and production call for a platform to develop and exploit the field and that is mostly where McDermott comes in.

Keep in mind, not an expert here, just been around the patch a bit.

Honestly I have not correlated stock prices with hurricane hits but I would imagine a cat 5 storm entering the gulf would create a big dip in stocks of certain sectors, and create interest in oil futures. Just guessing, no research to back it up, and the effect of course would only last for a couple of days.
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Well, someone shot a few missiles at an Iranian oil tanker last night. That wasn't you was it Growley?
Anyway, oil up 2% earlier. That should help.
 
No, I am all out of missiles. Plus I would never shoot one at a ship, unless it was a pirate ship. Yeah I was up $320 a while ago, now only up $160 but that's okay. I need another $700 to be above PDT. NE is leading the way this morning. That is good to see. I actually had thought that I would make the most money on Noble with their Leviathan gas field production coming online.

While I was typing MDR just went up 4 cents and I am once again up $320. I think it is going to find resistance at $2 for a while, though. It would be nice indeed it it would break out above $2 during the course of the day. That would set me up nicely for Monday.

GUSH is my usual oil barometer and I don't have data on it yet. TQQQ came up nicely overnight and so a lot of stocks should gap strongly at the open. TVIX is stirring a little, though. Anyway time for my cappuccino before the bell. Fingers crossed that MDR will push up past $2 early in the day. BYND might be good for a play today. It doesn't like to stay that low for long. Looks good for a +5% day, or better. And the hourly trend is upward already.

<EDIT> I just noticed SDRL (SeaDrill) is up 5% already this morning.
 
It's not the move I was looking for, though. My stocks are just rising with the market which is booming at the moment. TVIX is headed for the grass and TQQQ is headed for the moon. A good day for the Bulls, I think. I am up $700 now. Another $200 and I am over PDT limit.
 
I am in MDR for the distance. NE, too. I was actually thinking to sell HOS at just under a dollar, or possibly once it breaks into the green at .78, as I am getting a little disillusioned with that stock and I don't see it in quite the same light as before. If it is in the green at the end of the day and it appears that it is only up because the market is up, I will close out of that one, I think. But MDR and NE look very good to me over the long run. So Vanguard going in for another 2M shares in MDR is pretty good short term news and would help explain the 12% gain so far today. I did not know they had 10% of MDR or I might have put more money into it a few days ago. I like some of Vanguard's offerings and they seem pretty solid.

On second thought, maybe bailing on MDR right now os not a bad idea. If TQQQ keeps tumbling maybe I will, and buy back in at the next dip.

Okay out of it at $2.17 and I will look to go back in when TQQQ is back down around $60 or $61. If the market declines to yesterday's level then MDR is probably going to settle about $2 and I can buy back in, then.

In fact I just pulled the plug on all three. I will buy back in later. Hope this turns out to be the right thing to do but if it works out it will help my short term. So now I am sitting above PDT limit again, holding all cash. TQQQ going down, TVIX going up. MDR and NE still holding, though. I think I will leave HOS alone. I have a bias against stocks that stay under a buck a share for so long. Hope this isn't something I will regret later and if this was a pharma stock I probably would hold some as a long shot.

If I don't go back in, I am still up 5% for the day. Unfortunately that doesn't mean much since everyone should be up 5% for the day, today. But at least I am back in trading without having to rape my checking account or anything else.
 
ARGH! TQQQ started twitching upward, I went back in. FOMO. Then somebody flushed the terlet and I bailed again, $200 loss. Okay I am waiting until TQQQ is down to at least $61 of not $60. Once again, it seems that the less I DO, the more I MAKE. Now holding nothing but cash with final P&L +$1017 and I think I need to just be satisfied with that. I will have another look before the closing bell.

GF is telecommuting today from her office nook in the livingroom and I just told her about the day's trading and how I stupidly bought back in and seconds later bailed again, but still ended up +$1017 for the day after being up to $1640 earlier in the day. She said I was sooooooo smart! I told her no, I just learned my lessons from being stupid and if anything, being stupid has made me smarter. Her take on it is being stupid makes smart people smarter, but just makes stupid people stupider. I think she is pretty smart. I hope she doesn't take that the wrong way. Now I am getting confused.

MDR and NE are floating gently upward but I think they will drop with the market. MUST... NOT... TRADE!!!! MUST... NOT... TRADE!!!! MUST... NOT... TRADE!!!! LOL. I got to stop letting small market twitches send me into a frenzy. And I got to remember, just following along with the market is not the move I am looking for in MDR and NE.

Speaking of moves, it is about time BYND bottomed out. It just keeps going dooooowwwwwwnnnnnnnn... I am watching it closely for another big move. I made more than a few bucks on it last time it drove up like $20 overnight. And now it is only $132. As often the case, its price is moving contrary to the market. That is one strange stock.

MDR popped up 3 cents and NE 2 cents. Proud of myself. My hands never even twitched toward the trading keyboard. And now both have settled back down. Maybe I am getting a clue or two.

I actually have another cash account I should be using for investing and longer term swing trades. I might go back to intraday exclusively with the occasional overnight position on this account. It's funny and maybe just coincidence, but I have never lost money on any overnight position so far. In fact, my best gain was an overnight position. Knock on wood.

Ah. MDR is dropping. NE, too. Every cent either one drops is another $40 I will make, if I buy back in at a good dip. It's like short selling, without the risk of a short squeeze.
 
GrowleyMonster said:
...but still ended up +$1017 for the day after being up to $1640 earlier in the day. She said I was sooooooo smart! I told her no, I just learned my lessons from being stupid and if anything, being stupid has made me smarter....
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Stop beating yourself up. You ended the day with 1000 bux realized profit. That is not stupid.

...It's like short selling, without the risk of a short squeeze.
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That also sounds smart.

Stop beating yourself up when you make four figures, and are hedged against loss. THAT would be stupid. :-)

...Her take on it is being stupid makes smart people smarter, but just makes stupid people stupider...
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I THINK this is kinda' the point your GF is trying to make. Could be wrong on this. lol

 
Screenshot from 2019-10-11 17-18-59.png

Okay see you all in the premarket Monday! I screwed up and bought X right when it decided to stop trending up. Bailed with a $40 loss. Still over PDT. Life is good.
 
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