Great Depression 2 underway as of July 25, 2014

[S2007S]

Great depression???

They wont even allow a recession to take place....

What everyone fails to understand is that recessions are actually good, its a healthy cycle for any economy to go through but it seems anytime we are at the edge they do everything possible to prevent it...not good...they can never let the cycle run its course...I ask where are the damn free markets ...enough of this intervention.

 

[S2007S]

Dennis Gartman has given up ...... AfterLOS continues .....

still on Great Depression 2 CALL:

Rally from October 15 that scared the daylights out of every mother's son .......

On 60-min. view: rally is over when

Vix > 18.7

Dow < 16,870

Trans < 8449

SPX < 1944

Naz comp < 4439

= next downwave is underway.

Vix looks toooo comfortable down here...
Especially after what just took place 2 weeks ago.
One thing im watching is oil ...broke 80 days ago and if breaks 80 I think markets will or could react to that drop...I think oil is still overvaued. Has nothing to do with supply and demand ...oil is only worth maybe 30-40 a barrel. Should be trading 50%+ lower but since everyone likes to play with oil on wallstreet the games continue.

 

[S2007S]

Dennis Gartman has given up ...... AfterLOS continues .....

still on Great Depression 2 CALL:

Rally from October 15 that scared the daylights out of every mother's son .......

On 60-min. view: rally is over when

Vix > 18.7

Dow < 16,870

Trans < 8449

SPX < 1944

Naz comp < 4439

= next downwave is underway.

Some are calling for another drop where s&p might revisit its 200

A lot has to come together for that to happen, however you never know now especially with QE 3 over.
There still has not been a 10+% correction and that is still something I laugh at since the markets have soared over 130% from 2009 bottom.

 

[AfterLOS]

Great depression???

They wont even allow a recession to take place....

What everyone fails to understand is that recessions are actually good, its a healthy cycle for any economy to go through but it seems anytime we are at the edge they do everything possible to prevent it...not good...they can never let the cycle run its course...I ask where are the damn free markets ...enough of this intervention.

Good points

Just think back to 2000 TOP, then 2007 TOP. Not a single mother expected either. We are not talking about every top being the start of a depression. But this one is

 

[AfterLOS]

Some are calling for another drop where s&p might revisit its 200

A lot has to come together for that to happen, however you never know now especially with QE 3 over.
There still has not been a 10+% correction and that is still something I laugh at since the markets have soared over 130% from 2009 bottom.

Yeah

And the no-correction or very-light-correction is now hailed as a NEW ERA

So is the low, low Volume on rallies and big volume on drops = New Era

message = C O M P L A C E N C Y

not to be mistaken for con placer = when the 200-day is taken out again and not even retested

 

[AfterLOS]

Vix looks toooo comfortable down here...
Especially after what just took place 2 weeks ago.
One thing im watching is oil ...broke 80 days ago and if breaks 80 I think markets will or could react to that drop...I think oil is still overvaued. Has nothing to do with supply and demand ...oil is only worth maybe 30-40 a barrel. Should be trading 50%+ lower but since everyone likes to play with oil on wallstreet the games continue.

Vix comfortable down there? Ignoring a major breakout? Chart has a lot removed only shows bare essentials - Vix drops to 200-day support = but nobody's noticed except AfterLOS

 

[AfterLOS]

SMART MONEY has been selling like there's no tomorrow and they sure as heck have noticed how the VIX 50-day has golden crossed but that its still well above the 200-day and pointing upward

 

[AfterLOS]

Behold Great Depression ONE:


Dip-buyers became extinct for some 60 years after the 1929 crash - have a look at all the dips they bought

Where did they BUY like there was no tomorrow?

Why of course its when the first wave down turned up for the rally - they said in unison, "crash is over, market scared the daylights out of us, but its over now, dip buying is back in and solidified harder than concrete"

Why must the above be so? Because in a Wave C ...... BEAR requires EVERYBODY or the bulk of everybody on board and caution thrown to the wind. That be the psychology of all-aboard

AfterLOS would not disregard the trendline broken and then retested and rejected - EVEN if he was still IN. But you cats know AfterLOS always gets out at the TOP or just before or a minute after

 

[AfterLOS]

Failure to set a reasonable profit target can really hurt when you let bad calls ( like your long on Gold ) run when they are trending badly against you. I think Gold trends much lower moving forward, but have no interest in putting money on that. I posted this call at much higher levels. If you truly want to get bullish on Gold, I suggest you start to track mining companies that have had their stock crushed the last 2 years. You can get a lot of upside leverage later on if Gold ever rallies, but a lot of patience will be necessary. That area of trading has far more potential for huge boom or bust phases then guessing tops and bottoms on indexes.

Agree 100%, my Gold performance is worse than miserable. But keep this in mind - the errors were made only AFTER the CRASH and therefore during the consolidation period. I've worked this folly out and know that July 2014 on Daily is the key point for trend reversal

But on 4H I am looking for a closer reversal than that.

It will all get sorted out but does not change the fact that is was terrible performance for me

 

[S2007S]

Good points

Just think back to 2000 TOP, then 2007 TOP. Not a single mother expected either. We are not talking about every top being the start of a depression. But this one is

I remember the 2007 top very well and know the dot com bubble as well and remember maybe 1-2% were calling a top...you can pull out articles from mid 2000s about how most said there was no bubble in housing or back in the late 90s when they said there was no bubble in tech..same thing holds true again.
No one knows where the top is. It could be here or 8734 points higher from here but what everyone should know is that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down. You could see 5 years of gains gone in 5 months if a huge crisis were to take place...no one wants to admit it but its true. One single event that no one is expecting can turn this market upside down.