Grains Journal

Thanks!

Quote from FullyArticulate:

WASDE came out today (and every month about this time).

HUGELY bullish for Corn with a lot of drag-along effect. Wheat is something of a mystery, their fundamentals are looking pretty bearish (quite a bit more ending stocks than expected). I'm guessing the runup there is Corn drag-along.
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b1s2, could you tell us if you can, given yesterday's price movements, are you still short planning on adding to your july wheat position, or have you bailed out at this time.
 
Quote from optionpro007:

b1s2, could you tell us if you can, given yesterday's price movements, are you still short planning on adding to your july wheat position, or have you bailed out at this time.
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Yes, I am building a short July Wheat position here and will add on the next short signal. Wheat is the weak sister of the grains in my view.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Yes, I am building a short July Wheat position here and will add on the next short signal. Wheat is the weak sister of the grains in my view.
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Do you still think thats wise considering how desperate those corn bids were on Friday? (68000) Why couldn't wheat go to 5.10-5.50 on merely sympathy buying alone?
 
very fascinating activity on corn.

volume only hit 18k tonight on globex zc and we came slightly off limit up, but the bid was almost 70k contracts on friday. possible that ecbot dumped a bunch of buy orders?

Any ideas here? or fundamental news I'm missing?

or are shorts merely too lazy to attempt closing their positions on MLK day?


these ags are tough.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

Do you still think thats wise considering how desperate those corn bids were on Friday? (68000) Why couldn't wheat go to 5.10-5.50 on merely sympathy buying alone?
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I think the fact that Wheat could not maintain limit up Friday is indicative of it's overall bearish nature. I would love to be able to sell more in the 5.50 range. I am bearish July Wheat.
 
A break of 4.82 basis July 07 Wheat would most likely constitute the Larry Williams "oops" pattern where longs would get surprised. We'll see. I remain bearish July 07 Wheat and have added today at 4.84 1/2:)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

A break of 4.82 basis July 07 Wheat would most likely constitute the Larry Williams "oops" pattern where longs would get surprised. We'll see. I remain bearish July 07 Wheat and have added today at 4.84 1/2:)
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There's the break of 4.82. Let's see if we can close below it.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

A break of 4.82 basis July 07 Wheat would most likely constitute the Larry Williams "oops" pattern where longs would get surprised. We'll see. I remain bearish July 07 Wheat and have added today at 4.84 1/2:)
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The oops story was first puplished by Robert Evans of the Wyckoff Institute in 1955, long before Larry Williams could say uncle.

In this version it is the shorts not the longs getting surprised.

The shorts need to cover because of the sudden up move, they are forced to liquidate, thereby removing potential buying power. This is also the terminology for short covering. The result is negative.

I am not sure though if the action in the grains can be called an oops, because prices (as per definition) would need to fade immediately.
 
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