Grains Journal

Optionpro007 · Nov 21, 2006

b1s2. if a commodity market has been printing high prices by historical standards, would it be reasonable to believe that once the front month contract nears expiration, and traders start rolling to the next month (during the last couple of weeks), price will go lower during those last few days, being lowest towards the FND/LTD?

Is this something that happens ? A reversion to the mean once large specs leave the arena ?

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 21, 2006

Quote from optionpro007:

b1s2. if a commodity market has been printing high prices by historical standards, would it be reasonable to believe that once the front month contract nears expiration, and traders start rolling to the next month (during the last couple of weeks), price will go lower during those last few days, being lowest towards the FND/LTD?

Is this something that happens ? A reversion to the mean once large specs leave the arena ?

If cash is below futures, yes. But if cash continues to rise, the no, it will meet futures.

Optionpro007 · Nov 21, 2006

Where does one get cash prices for corn for example.

Isn't the cash price the same as the front month price ?

Thanks !

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

If cash is below futures, yes. But if cash continues to rise, the no, it will meet futures.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 21, 2006

Quote from optionpro007:

Thank you for your remarks.

How did you derive 3.584? up-trendline ?

This is a very short term trade based on weakness on the daily and rsi failures on the 30/60. target 346

Hope it works.

3.584 is the reaction low in my view.

Optionpro007 · Nov 21, 2006

closed corn at a small loss.

how much screen time does a person need to learn to read charts the b1s2 way!! arghhhh

Optionpro007 · Nov 22, 2006

Armed with new knowledge.

I have opened a long position on March wheat last night @ 505

stop under 502

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 22, 2006

Quote from optionpro007:

closed corn at a small loss.

how much screen time does a person need to learn to read charts the b1s2 way!! arghhhh

Well, I would think that it would be less than other methods since I keep it so simple.

Optionpro007 · Nov 24, 2006

I am long march wheat again from wednesday.

Let's see if this time the play sticks.

Optionpro007 · Nov 27, 2006

Cashed in last night.

Filled again just now at 516 1/2.

Buy1Sell2 · Dec 14, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Rolled the Novie Beans into the July contract on the close Thurs.

I am looking at a close below 6.81 1/2 (11/16/06 low) as the decision time to either get out or go short. As long as we stay above that level, I will remain long the July Beans. Now if we get a double top and/and or strong bearish divergence then I would look at reversing as well. First and foremost, I am looking at 6.81 1/2. Close today was 701 3/4.