Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

[recession2016]

AJ Bell, the broker, crunched the numbers for the 14 biggest global economies, to find out which countries are overvalued, neutral or cheap.

The results, detailed in the chart below, show that America and Britain are the most expensive stock markets.

At the other end of the table Russia, India and Brazil are deemed the three cheapest countries to buy today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ure-signals-stock-markets-are-overvalued.html

that data is irrelevant, the market could keep getting more expensive

0% bond yields, where are you going to put your money if not into equities?

and as for technicals, this could be like the 1998 crash that faked everyone out...don't think a market top is going to be that easy to call

 

[romik]

Is a Bear Market Just Beginning?
By Dan Moskowitz | October 07, 2015

http://www.investopedia.com/article...tocks-cheap-or-bear-market-just-beginning.asp

 

[romik]

The problem with any view, be it technical or fundamental, is absense of edge when trying to figure out WTF the consensus is. You are left with a personal opinion based on whatever you are seeing/reading.

 

[Pricechange]

0% bond yields, where are you going to put your money if not into equities?

USD cash or USD forex or USD futures....longer term investment, keep a stop loss and then just keep re-buying any dips... for the next couple years. If there is a dynamic that changes this, then that would allow for an entire new picture for investments (Fed reverses and begins easing, Europe/Japan ends QE/Chinese Yuan getting more valuble or something else that would cause USD to downtrend longer term)

However, yes the market can just keep getting more expensive, once Fed does this one hike and then back to inaction for several months....agree

 

[Autodidact]

Triangle, it even gave you the recent lower high, this whole year, is one big triangle, giving you the lower highs and the higher lows. Eventually it will breakout to the upside.

You must know which pattern big money is playing or else, you trading with one eye closed.

Now you can be nice, and I will tell you what's the other pattern big money is playing or you can continue being hostile and stay ignorant, your choice.

 

[romik]

You must know which pattern big money is playing or else, you trading with one eye closed

Personally I have not found a way to front run major events that haven't started unfolding with any degree of certainty. Are you saying there is such a thing as the Holy Grail?

P.S. I am always nice

 

[Autodidact]

Are you saying there is such a thing as the Holy Grail?

P.S. I am always nice

If you mean 100%? Unfortunately no, if you mean with a high degree of probability, yes.

 

[romik]

If you mean 100%? Unfortunately no, if you mean with a high degree of probability, yes.

Noted. I don't see indexes getting above ATH until we see new lows (below 2015 lows).

T bond monthly

 

[Autodidact]

Noted. I don't see indexes getting above ATH until we see new lows (below 2015 lows).

T bond monthly

If SPX was to take 2015 lows in 2016, it would not take the 2015 highs because a yearly SPX outside bar has less than 1% chance of happening (thats a statistical fact, not an aprox.).

 

[romik]

If SPX was to take 2015 lows in 2016, it would not take the 2015 highs because a yearly SPX outside bar has less than 1% chance of happening (thats a statistical fact, not an aprox.).

I am not certain you understood me correctly. I am not saying that indexes will rally above their ATHs once 2015 lows have been taken out. My opinion is limited to taking out 2015 lows first. I don't know whether it will take place in 2015 or 2016, that's why I don't do binary bets. Surf just got shafted with a binary.

Are you watching Transportation index at all? Monthly basis is in downtrend. Russell is not looking bullish either, SPX/INDU neither here nor there, can Naz pull all others higher with it? I have no idea.