Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Autodidact said:
It's not a double top, it's a triangle.
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Sweet looking triangle, bro.
 
To be fair to Autodidact (amusing seeing as its a one way street), I merely said *one possibility* was a double top. I'm slightly surprised myself to see it having played out fairly straightforward which is almost unheard of in ES.
 
i960 said:
To be fair to Autodidact (amusing seeing as its a one way street), I merely said *one possibility* was a double top. I'm slightly surprised myself to see it having played out fairly straightforward which is almost unheard of in ES.
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It was also the general feeling of the thread on that day and some days following. The paid shills and newsletter trolls and the just fully conditioned "buy on the dippers" start lurking and shill posting/attack posting and you can just feel the distribution of long shares thick in the air. So his "not a double top" post along with his arrogant responses to you and threats to any shorts seemed to just beg for a contrarian fade. On the surface he seemed to garner some bullish viewpoints but then, after you and kommish pushed below the surface it started becoming much more clear. And the timing was pretty suspect. Especially when we (just days before) had be talking openly on this thread about how both buying and selling are a natural part of the market. And then, poof, out comes lurkers who not only swear that "no selling is allowed/condoned at any time" in US markets but also threatens anyone who might think about selling at any future date.

....yes this is often an amazing thread in so many ways.

But that really was only some of it. Your charting is always spot on. Anyone can see on your Sierra charts that you put a lot of thought and experience into them. Your end of Sept bottom chart and call were amazing. Not that many people commented on it at the time either. But that was very good (and profitable I would think) analysis! I believe you also post under this user name in other venues and I try to catch your posting there as well.

Problem is (as you just said) the ES has not followed much technical nor fundamental behavior in a long while. Seems lately its running pretty much on psychological and mass psychology factors that are fully influenced by CBs and, unfortunately, sell side flunkies trying to keep their sheep from leaving the nest.
 
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romik said:
Look how accurately Walayat forecasted it. I hope he's wrong on DB though.

dow-trend-forecast-2015.gif
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fundamentally it doesn't make much sense for the market to go down to 1700s with all this QE being pumped in Japan/Europe, with bonds yielding negative rates, that's the sort of environment where equities rise

but looking at companies like AMZN and NFLX that are driving the nasdaq, how much higher can these go realistically? the majority of the gains must already be in

technicals make sense but fundamentals say otherwise
 
recession2016 said:
fundamentally it doesn't make much sense for the market to go down to 1700s with all this QE being pumped in Japan/Europe, with bonds yielding negative rates, that's the sort of environment where equities rise

but looking at companies like AMZN and NFLX that are driving the nasdaq, how much higher can these go realistically? the majority of the gains must already be in

technicals make sense but fundamentals say otherwise
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Let's find some some articles from fundamental analysts over the weekend. I must admit, as I do not follow fundamentals I do not pay attention to them. Let's see what the professionals have to say about it and how their opinions vary on the matter. Will opinions vary just as in technicals?
 
At the present time, the ratio has fallen to 110.2%, down from its most recent peak of 128.5%. This indicates that stocks are still slightly overvalued. Where do we go from here? It’s difficult to say since there are many factors that influence the direction of stock prices. Remember, during every bull market there are relatively brief periods when stock prices fall. Conversely, during every bear market, there are times when stock prices rise. Again, is this the beginning of a bear market or a short-term correction in the midst of an ongoing bull market? That’s the million dollar question. But if I had to guess, I think it’s possible that stocks could go lower before they begin to trend higher. Why? Because risk is still elevated and that’s usually more of a negative than a positive.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/09/30/is-the-u-s-stock-market-overvalued-or-undervalued/

 
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