Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Market stagnated from beginning of 2015 and sold off in August. So far there has been no announcements regarding QE4.

QESP500.png
 
This earnings season has some similarities to this past July...The biggest weighted stocks in NDX went parabolic and dragged along the trifecta indicies (YM/ES/NQ) higher, while the Smallcaps and Midcaps lagged...
 
European Central Bank and China were forced to ease because US did not hike. US not hiking was like if they had tighten, this is extremely bullish for US markets.
 
If SPX follows the 2011 script, then it puts in a s-t top at approx 2090 cash and retraces to approx 1950 cash or the 10/2 closing levels...thinking that maybe the ndx hits the highs the day AAPL reports on 10/27...

all just speculation, obviously...

so this is what I have:

2011:
18 td's from low to high (1074.45 - 1292.80) = 218.35 (20.3%)

2007:
40 td's from low to high (1370.37 - 1576.03) = 205.66 (15.0%)

2015: (2nd leg from re-test of Aug lows)-can't find accurate data on Aug 24 cash low...
18 td's from low to high (1871.97 - 2079.68) = 207.71 (11.1%)
 
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Fed meeting mode all week. Don't see how we could possibly rise too much more in very short term but I don;t think I will be shorting YM or ES today. Japan also in the chatter for possible QE Friday...so doubt shorting is proper to start week

Looking for an entry to short CL today.

Also looking at going long EUR/USD short term bounce today

Construction numbers come out today in US...projected to beat expectations.

AAPL earnings I think Tuesday..could also beat on the downside
 
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Lets see who can guess what excuse the Federal Reserve will use at this meeting to...NOT RAISE RATES. My guess is they use inflation is not close enough to our target, and recent weakness in corporate profits due to a slowing China.
 
Add an AD "Advance Decline" line with a smoothing moving average to a weekly chart, you will need 10-15 years of data, and see if you can find a divergence. Look for lower AD peaks in relation to actual price. That has correctly identified every single top in the markets.
 
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