Half way there, up 500 points from my call on October 12th. I hope others are doing this well.Fed meeting next week, makes me want to take some profit. But they will just make up some excuse like inflation is not close enough to there target. HOW MANY TIMES HAVE THEY MOVED THAT TARGET? .................RIGGED TO PERFECTION!
Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$
- Thread starter makloda
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Half way there, up 500 points from my call on October 12th. I hope others are doing this well.Fed meeting next week, makes me want to take some profit. But they will just make up some excuse like inflation is not close enough to there target. HOW MANY TIMES HAVE THEY MOVED THAT TARGET? .................RIGGED TO PERFECTION!
Reality is that this is a huge bounce, but technically, the way I use it, it still points to trouble ahead. I'm going through one of the largest drawdowns I've ever had to experience and it is hard psychologically to keep position on, even though I adjusted risk to above ATH in SPX. If I lose, then it would be down to me, I will not be influenced by anyone, but myself 
Spot the difference with 2007 as well...that 2 month pullback was still within the range of early 2007, basically a re-test of the lows...2015 essentially retraced the entire fall of 2014 moonshot, but also broke hard out of a really long trading range...also that high in 2007 was a pretty logical stall point with the 2000 highs...it would make sense that we eventually re-test that 1500-1600 area, but we'll have to make it thru a whole barrage of CB intervention and verbal manipulation...
Maybe. But I think that we crash hard towards 1700 area sooner than later at which point QE4 will be announced and quite possibly NIRP.
Yes, that's plausible...in which case it will be another one of those "minutes to cover" scenario or the exchanges will be down, etc...just like on 8/24.
Again, and I've said this many times before, a rising stock market does not necessarily mean the US economy is doing well. This is the inference some of you make, and it's a fallacy. What a rising stock market says is that corporations are doing well. And at no point in history has the US system been so slanted to the rich then now.
In 2010 ( exact timing a guess ), there were a ton of bears on here saying the stock market was going to crash because the US economy around them was very weak. I read an article about the Dow and how the bottom 5 laggards were all primarily in business in the US, and the high flyers were squarely international in flavour. There is a lesson there for those of you who think their personal experiences can help them understand world wide finance. Taking a survey of those you know likely involves a regional bias that involves some degree of confirmation bias. Try reading the posts on this site since 2009, posters like S2007S are so sure of themselves all the time, and couldn't be more wrong if they guessed on so much that goes on.
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In hindsight, as a not very well reformed permabear, I would say the market now clearly looks like the end of very much needed and healthy correction and will move accordingly (newer highs with or without a perceived weak US economy). As bears often do, the correction was looked upon as a glass half empty and potentially becoming an empty glass until "proven otherwise" which has happen. Once this becomes obvious, its just beating a dead horse to continue to look at the market bearishly. Markets can move a long way while in a perceived weak or questionable state if there are central banks and and large global investors supporting and investing in it. In fact, while markets are in a perceived weak state is when central banks are most active in rolling out support and intervention. This is also when deep pocketed investors see bargains and invest accordingly (when a dangerous downturn proves to be a healthy and much needed correction). Even I, who can be at times, stubbornly bearish, cannot help but to see it for what it is.
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@Nine_Ender, I get what you are saying about global rather than just US economy, I 'dance to the beat of a market', you are forgetting that I have a purely technical view, whereas you are digging into fundamental reasons, which there are plenty, thousands of outlooks interpreting that data and these opinions battle it out via bid & offer. Again, my opinion is purely a technical one. There are probably still quite a lot of stocks that are fundamentally overvalued or undervalued, but for whatever reason their valuations do not match fundamental logic. Am I right here? Monthly charts are all classically contrarian, will this end up being a bear trap or a bull trap only time will tell. IMHO it's hard to bluff it out on macro basis (monthly chart).
I can't understand how we come to different conclusions from looking at the same charts. I mean, it's the same friggin chart!
IMO trend following (you) vs contrarian (me). I posted lots of charts, would help if you posted an annotated image too (monthly chart). Here is another post from my thread:
This chart is NYSE composite, posting a daily chart just to display where this bounce is heading. This is a major bounce, no doubts about that. But due to bearishness of the monthly chart, I still view this as a bounce, rather than a reversal, even though the strength of the bounce has bulls convinced that this is resurrection of the predominant uptrend. Time will tell. As long as monthly chart remains bearish from a contrarian perspective I favour the odds of resistance coming into play very soon. Let's think about it sensibly, why has it all of the sudden become 'risk off'? There is nothing that the FED has said that indicates anything of substance, maybe we will, maybe we won't. So the markets will 'force' the decisiveness out of the FED, but IMO equity markets have to fall substantially more. This is my firm belief.