Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Another person with a SE Asia connection here. My wife is Sarawakian (Iban) so if we moved back there for any significant time we'd definitely be based out of Kuching. I wouldn't consider Thailand or HK myself, and Singapore probably wouldn't fly either - a bit too cina for us lah :D, we need our orang dayak and extended family around.

Myself, I stay away from Bali and prefer to visit less bule-infested spots in Indonesia as when I'm out there I'm usually trying to escape that type of thing (Western mentality/people) for the time that I'm there. I find alot of time that Western tourists "use" the destination rather than attempting to understand the place they're visiting, but more so the local/visitor interaction becomes annoying and monetary-driven and as a Westerner I have to deal with the associated expectations so as a result I'd rather spend my time in Bandung, Jogja, or Jakarta before a place like Bali. I also despise how Australians pronounce Malay words and Bali is their number 1 spot :rolleyes:.

It used to be easier to travel around from Sarawak to Indonesia but due to demand and other reasons, Kuching seems to be less of a hub than they want it to be - hence KK is getting more traffic. This is a bit inconvenient for us as we used to fly straight from Kuching to CGK via AirAsia until they killed that route. Now it's either bussing or flying from KCH to Pontianak and then flying to CGK from there. BKI<>CGK is another route but usually take that flying out of Indonesia. Any other route requires going back to KL and that's going in the wrong direction for us.

Small world here...yes Indonesia and Malaysia (outside of KL) have retained much of their wonderful culture and heritage in the face of rampant westernization in most of the rest of SE Asia. This is the most wonderful aspect of visiting and living in these countries. I also have an SE Asian wife. I am married to the Singa-Malay lady I met and dated while living in the Woodlands.

It was Very hard to go back to western living after having spent time there. Trying to talk my parents into moving to Malaysia or Indonesia. They are still pretty healthy and able to enjoy life but retirement living in the US is dreary. They have friends that own flats in an extended living retirement community where assistance is there if needed. They have asked me to look at the community with them. But nuclear and extended family life is so much more healthy and nourishing in Asian society.

Too bad about reduced fly routes in Kuching. I thought SE Asian budget carriers were flying everywhere now. I fly Garuda mostly from Europe (sometimes US) to SE Asia.....like a lot of other things about Indonesia and Malaysia its not well known to western tourists and is still a pleasure.
 
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I view the whole premise as sort of "tongue n' cheek"; it has the tone of a guy who was once perma-bearish, got lit up during the 03-07 relentless rally and then just went perma-bullish as a result...I'm cool with the satire, but not when it starts getting contentious...the fact of the matter is that 8/19-24 blew out all gains that woulda/coulda been made in the previous months/years..those are just the facts...it doesn't help that, up until recently, there were plenty of downside PM sessions that didn't exactly support this "buy em ugly all the time"...

Nothing wrong with being bullish most of the time...it's been spot on now for all of October, but pretending like Aug-Sept never happened is complete b.s.

I thought it was all satire until recently....I still try to keep it light and its harder to do as the market continues higher these days.
 
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Ill let you in on a little secret.....I don't care what people think of me. Good luck with your short position, you will need it. I think ill do just fine, as the year end rally will prevail.

Thank you for good luck wishes. Since your long trade is a guaranteed outcome I will refrain from wishing you good luck ;)
 
This is my post from my weekly outlook thread. Comments are welcome.

One more chart, this is again monthly chart of S&P500 this time, clear divergence between MFI and price (MFI of course isn't just based on price performance, but volume as well). MACD histogram is negative to the extent that will not instill confidence, quite the opposite (bearish sentiment). And of course multi-year trend line has been violated on strong volume.

I believe my outlook to have strong technical validity, as this is a macro chart and all fundamentals are reflected in price performance on this time frame.

The only index that has so far prevented from downside acceleration is NDX, which is above it's 20MMA. Once it breaks it and the key zone that I monitor on all other indexes it would take months to get indexes back to ATH.


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Do any of you guys ever trade futures spreads? i.e. ES vs MDY or MDY vs TF?
I've looked into some stuff with ES vs. TF. I always forget to follow it to be honest, but I know there are occasionally some decent trades to be made there when there is some divergence
 
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