Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

Rickshaw Man said:
Oh so every call must be 100% correct. Buddy you live in a fantasy world. I will match my calls against anyone on this board. What's your current position?
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Don't give guarantees due to your own words ;)

My position is short, stop above ATH, in the red. Posted in this journal. Will lose a considerable amount if SPX gets to ATH before there is more downside. Stop issuing guarantees and doing disappearing acts when your call is wrong and folks will treat you seriously.
 
I view this as a bounce of desperation, overall technical conditions are bearish on monthly time frame, but that's my view and I trade my own analysis.
 
i960 said:
Yeah I never understand why you go absolutely AWOL when the market is selling off, Rickshaw.
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I view the whole premise as sort of "tongue n' cheek"; it has the tone of a guy who was once perma-bearish, got lit up during the 03-07 relentless rally and then just went perma-bullish as a result...I'm cool with the satire, but not when it starts getting contentious...the fact of the matter is that 8/19-24 blew out all gains that woulda/coulda been made in the previous months/years..those are just the facts...it doesn't help that, up until recently, there were plenty of downside PM sessions that didn't exactly support this "buy em ugly all the time"...

Nothing wrong with being bullish most of the time...it's been spot on now for all of October, but pretending like Aug-Sept never happened is complete b.s.
 
Yep. RSM is tongue in cheek and all laughs about it when the market is irrationally rallying upward, but if he truly knows the entire thing is bullshit - why not stick around for the inevitable sell-offs as well?
 
romik said:
I view this as a bounce of desperation, overall technical conditions are bearish on monthly time frame, but that's my view and I trade my own analysis.
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It feels like the sentiment has shifted enough...Another OpEx...the market sort of "inverted" itself with the historically most volatile month going out like a lamb (i.e. finished VIX at 15.19) with all of the frontrunning of anticipated equity weakness occurring in Aug again (i.e. trap and harvest paradigm in all of its glory)...post OpEx is typically weak this entire year and here we are just peaking above those FOMC highs and right below that massive ledge from all of 2015...

I can tell you that personally I've been too chicken**** to short this thing for a bit of time and that's all I need to know about sentiment, lol...if you can't fade yourself, who can you fade, afterall?
 
i960 said:
Yep. RSM is tongue in cheek and all laughs about it when the market is irrationally rallying upward, but if he truly knows the entire thing is bullshit - why not stick around for the inevitable sell-offs as well?
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Everybody wants to be "right" all the time...basic human desire, I suppose...hence, my reference to "sentiment"...it's always much "safer" to peek out when it feels like whatever "side" we are on has the wind at its back...and in this razor sharp "trap and harvest" market, things turn on a dime and the herd panics the other way...I was away from this stuff for a few years, and man did I underestimate the changes in how this market structure works...it's taken more than a bit of getting used to.
 
i960 said:
Another person with a SE Asia connection here. My wife is Sarawakian (Iban) so if we moved back there for any significant time we'd definitely be based out of Kuching. I wouldn't consider Thailand or HK myself, and Singapore probably wouldn't fly either - a bit too cina for us lah :D, we need our orang dayak and extended family around.

Myself, I stay away from Bali and prefer to visit less bule-infested spots in Indonesia as when I'm out there I'm usually trying to escape that type of thing (Western mentality/people) for the time that I'm there. I find alot of time that Western tourists "use" the destination rather than attempting to understand the place they're visiting, but more so the local/visitor interaction becomes annoying and monetary-driven and as a Westerner I have to deal with the associated expectations so as a result I'd rather spend my time in Bandung, Jogja, or Jakarta before a place like Bali. I also despise how Australians pronounce Malay words and Bali is their number 1 spot :rolleyes:.

It used to be easier to travel around from Sarawak to Indonesia but due to demand and other reasons, Kuching seems to be less of a hub than they want it to be - hence KK is getting more traffic. This is a bit inconvenient for us as we used to fly straight from Kuching to CGK via AirAsia until they killed that route. Now it's either bussing or flying from KCH to Pontianak and then flying to CGK from there. BKI<>CGK is another route but usually take that flying out of Indonesia. Any other route requires going back to KL and that's going in the wrong direction for us.
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Kuching! Loads of wild life i heard. Where are you staying now? I m close to Jogja in a place called Semarang. We spend summers here and winters in South Sinai. Over here, lots of volcanic mountains and plateaus but the beaches in North Java are very disappointing, too polluted. I need at least a 3 hour boat trip to find clear waters.

I understand what you mean, many types of tourists, good n bad everywhere. Nothing beats the bliss of learning a new language and mingling with the locals. Helps a lot in understanding and appreciating the culture. The locals highly appreciate it as well (and you get to pay local prices). I Havent seen many places with such friendly people as in SE Asia.
 
der_kommissar said:
Everybody wants to be "right" all the time...basic human desire, I suppose...hence, my reference to "sentiment"...it's always much "safer" to peek out when it feels like whatever "side" we are on has the wind at its back...and in this razor sharp "trap and harvest" market, things turn on a dime and the herd panics the other way...I was away from this stuff for a few years, and man did I underestimate the changes in how this market structure works...it's taken more than a bit of getting used to.
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Same here! Took a long break and came back to see this. Its like musical chairs only the music is way faster, stops more frequent and the chairs keep disappearing exponentially.
 
romik said:
Don't give guarantees due to your own words ;)

My position is short, stop above ATH, in the red. Posted in this journal. Will lose a considerable amount if SPX gets to ATH before there is more downside. Stop issuing guarantees and doing disappearing acts when your call is wrong and folks will treat you seriously.
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Ill let you in on a little secret.....I don't care what people think of me. Good luck with your short position, you will need it. I think ill do just fine, as the year end rally will prevail.
 
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